Petraeus sees 2008 troop cut but long road to Iraq stability

WASHINGTON - President Bush's top Iraq war commander said yesterday that the surge of 30,000 troops has tamped down violence in the war-torn country enough that the extra forces could return home by next summer.

But General David H. Petraeus told a deeply divided joint House committee that achieving the goal of a self-sustaining Iraq would be "neither quick nor easy."

"The military objectives of the surge are in large measure being met," Petraeus said, adding that violence is still at a troubling level, and that Iraqi forces are sustaining "tough losses."

Still, reducing American forces to the pre-surge level could be done, the general said, without risking the secu rity gains he said the troop influx created.

Petraeus did not say how much longer the remaining 130,000 US troops would have to stay in Iraq in order to stabilize the country.

Clad in his dress-green Army uniform with four stars and a chest full of medals fastened to the jacket, Petraeus said that US forces have made substantial progress against Al Qaeda in Iraq but said the terrorist group "certainly is not defeated." The Bush administration announced that the troop surge would give sectarian factions time to work out a political solution, but Iraqi lawmakers have failed to pass key compromise legislation.

Also testifying was Ryan C. Crocker, the chief US diplomat in Iraq, who analyzed Iraq's political state. Crocker told the committee that the political goals are attainable, but he did not give a timeline for such success and acknowledged that the lack of progress is deeply frustrating.

"It is no exaggeration to say that Iraq is, and will remain for some time to come, a traumatized society," Crocker said.

The hearing was widely anticipated by both political parties as a signal of whether Bush's strategy of adding more troops to secure the country is succeeding.

Bush implemented the strategy despite the nonpartisan Iraq Study Group's suggestions in December that he should draw down troops in order to put pressure on the Iraqi government to forge a political reconciliation between warring sectarian groups. Despite reluctance from lawmakers, Bush contended that more US troops would provide time for reconciliation to occur.

Since the invasion began in 2003, the president's popularity has plunged to record lows, largely as a result of the Iraq war. After several years of insisting that things were going well in Iraq - and standing by former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld despite mounting US and Iraqi casualties - Bush is widely viewed as having bet his political and military standing on Petraeus's skills to reverse the trend and stabilize the country.

Before the general testified, however, many Democrats expressed deep skepticism or outright disbelief that the surge has turned around the unpopular war. But many Republicans hailed the general's actions, pointed to his sterling credentials, and urged that Congress follow his recommendation for more time.

In a statement before testimony began, Ike Skelton, the House Armed Services Committee chairman and a Missouri Democrat, said the surge "was intended to provide breathing space" for Iraqis to reach political compromise, but politicians in Baghdad "have not stepped up to the challenge."

But Representative Duncan Hunter of California - the committee's ranking Republican and a GOP presidential candidate - called it an outrage that Democrats had made up their minds about the situation in Iraq before hearing from Petraeus.

In their assessments, Petraeus and Crocker attributed some of the success in stabilizing the country to unexpected cooperation between US troops and Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar Province - once considered the most violent section of Iraq and heavily infiltrated by Al Qaeda fighters.

"When I testified in January, for example," Petraeus said, "no one would have dared to forecast that Anbar Province would have been transformed the way it has in the past six months."

But critics have contended that the leaders in Anbar have a vested interested in protecting their turf against Al Qaeda, and point out that the region has not seen the type of Sunni-Shia sectarian violence that has torn Baghdad asunder. In addition, the critics say the military is taking too much credit for success in Anbar because the tribes were fighting against Al Qaeda before the troop surge began.

Petraeus, however, said that the additional 30,000 troops helped stabilize the situation in Anbar and other parts of Iraq and helped lead to the capture of numerous Al Qaeda figures.

A recommendation by Petraeus that a Marine expeditionary unit of 2,000 troops be sent home later this month, and a brigade combat team be sent home in mid-December, came as a surprise to some analysts, who believed Petraeus was struggling to keep surge troops longer in Iraq.

Petraeus spelled out a gradual drawdown in phases through the end of next summer. Petraeus is planning to have the brigades "redeployed without replacement," which would mean that the brigades would end their 15-month tours of duty starting in April and not be replaced. The last of the brigades, which consist of approximately 3,500 to 4,500 troops each, would be out by August 2008. A decision about further reductions, the general said, should be made no sooner than March 2008.

The future of the Iraq policy could depend on how Petraeus's report is perceived. With Democrats holding a narrow majority in Congress, political analysts question whether Democrats can persuade enough Republicans to join them in passing veto-proof legislation requiring Bush to begin a troop withdrawal. Still, several Republicans - including Senator John Warner of Virginia, an influential legislator and a former Navy secretary - have been highly critical of Bush's policy.

Petraeus and Crocker will present their report today before a Senate panel. That hearing could provide a clearer picture of whether Republican leaders accept the Petraeus-Crocker assessment.

In his presentation to House members yesterday, Petraeus - who has been lauded by Bush for his ability as a military commander - sought to assure lawmakers that he is delivering an independent report. Days before the hearing, Democrats strongly suggested that the Bush administration would try to manipulate Petraeus's report to deliver a more favorable view of the situation in Iraq.

"I wrote this testimony myself," Petraeus told the panel. "It has not been cleared by nor shared with anyone in the Pentagon, the White House, or the Congress."

Petraeus's testimony was interrupted several times by protesters, who cried out that he could not be believed. Petraeus waited impassively for the protesters to be removed and then continued.

Using a series of charts, Petraeus and Crocker showed the panel that what they termed "security incidents" have declined in eight of the last 12 weeks, with the last two weeks having the lowest level of violence since June 2006.

Though critics say Iraqi security forces cannot operate without heavy support from the US military, Petraeus said the newly trained army has been "standing and fighting and sustaining tough losses, and they have taken the lead in operations in many areas."

Hours earlier, however, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Iraqi forces were not ready to take over security in his country. "There have been tangible improvements in security in the recent period in Baghdad and the provinces but it is not enough," Maliki told the Iraqi Parliament, asserting that violence had dropped 75 percent in the capital since the surge began.

In his portion of the report, Crocker told lawmakers there has been minimal political progress, far short of what he had hoped to report: the passage of key legislation on distributing Iraq's oil wealth, a system to allow former Ba'ath party members back into government, and an agreement on how Iraq's provinces would relate to a central government.

"I do believe Iraq's leaders have the will to tackle the country's pressing problems, although it will take longer than we originally anticipated," he said.

Charles M. Sennott and Farah Stockman of the Globe staff contributed to this report.