Mich. primary could cost Democrats

WARREN, Mich. - The tug-of-war between the Democratic National Committee and the Michigan state party over the timing of its primary, which has left a ballot with only four of the party's presidential candidates, could jeopardize the Democrats' tenuous hold on the key state next November, according to party members here.

Michigan is one of two large swing states to have scheduled a primary ahead of the DNC-approved calendar, leading the party to threaten not to seat delegates selected here and in Florida.

In addition, all of the Democratic candidates, under pressure from party leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire, agreed not to campaign in either state. , On Oct. 9, several candidates went farther, asking to have their names withdrawn from the Michigan ballot.

What began as an internal party squabble now threatens the Democrats' chances of winning the two states, according to insiders in both parties.

"The Democrats are ready to turn Michigan into a Republican state in the next presidential election," said Sam Riddle, a Detroit consultant who has worked for candidates of both parties.

Michigan Democrats have until Nov. 14 to pull out of the early primary and revert to a caucus, which would allow them to include all candidates on the ballot. On Thursday, the Macomb County Democratic Committee, representing a county strongly contested by both parties, voted unanimously to recommend that the party return to a caucus system, after a number of activists suggested they either would not participate in the primary or would consider voting for a Republican.

The Democratic disarray "is great news for us," said Saul Anuzis, chairman of the state Republican Party.

"As Republicans in Michigan, we're ecstatic."

As Republicans rejoice, Democrats fret that rump primaries would deny the party in both Florida and Michigan an opportunity to hone the field organizations and engage activists and donors, while ceding the local airwaves and town hall meetings to the other party's candidates.

"The Republican primary counts in Florida, so they're going to be campaigning, introducing themselves to voters. They'll have an opportunity to build a base in the state before the fall," said Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster.

Democrats said the situation was particularly risky in Michigan, whose open primary system serves as a "chance to capture the imagination of independents because people tend to align with that candidate they commit themselves to in the primary process," according to Dan Kildee, Genesee County treasurer.

"If that campaign doesn't take place, we lose a chance to attract those independent voters and get them committed to our message."

Many Democrats in Michigan said they were still unsure what they would do on primary day if they were offered a ballot that did not feature their top choice. "I already know people who are organizing a write-in-campaign for Edwards," said Ronnie Krochmalny, former political director for the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters, which has endorsed Edwards. "But a lot of independents will go and vote for Mitt Romney."

"Any of the candidates I'm considering need to come here - otherwise you're making me look at another party's candidate," Monica Conyers, president pro tem of the Detroit City Council and the wife of John Conyers, House Judiciary chairman, said in an interview. She said she is considering voting for Romney on primary day. "I'm weighing my options," she said, "although I know my husband doesn't want to hear that."

In Michigan, voters do not identify with a party - by definition, all of the state's approximately 7 million registered voters are independents - and, in the 2000 primary, it was an influx of untraditional Republican voters into that party's primary that is credited with Senator John McCain's upset victory over George W. Bush.

"You will see more Democrats and independents voting in the Republican primary," said Steve Mitchell, a Lansing-based pollster. "As a result, it helps a candidate like Rudy Giuliani."

In recent polls of likely Republican-primary voters, Giuliani and Romney have stood atop the field in Michigan. Supporters of the Republican candidates said they hoped to use the open primary to demonstrate their candidates' general-election appeal.

"Giuliani is going to have a huge opportunity in the Michigan primary to display his appeal to women, a demographic that went last time to the Democrats," said Representative Candice Miller, a Republican who represents Macomb County and serves as Giuliani's state chairwoman. "He also runs extremely well among independents, and that is a demographic we lost."

Those in Michigan who pushed for the early primary stressed their state's differences with Iowa and New Hampshire: Michigan is more heavily urbanized and dependent on manufacturing, and it has a sizeable black population.

In Michigan, this primary will be the first election in which county election officials will keep track of which party's ballot a voter chose, data that could help parties refine their targeting efforts in November. In the 2004 general election, Miller said, a strong GOP get-out-the-vote effort backfired when the party found itself turning out households in which the husband voted for George W. Bush but his spouse chose John F. Kerry.