Speculation grows for Dec. primary in N.H.

For months, as the presidential primary calendar has grown more uncertain, political junkies have joked that New Hampshire voters would be going to the polls in church clothes on Christmas Eve - or worse, in their costumes on Halloween.

But the presidential contenders have stopped laughing and begun preparing for the possibility that the vaunted first-in-the nation primary will take place in 2007, almost a year before the country selects its next president.

The authority for setting New Hampshire's primary date lies with the secretary of state, William Gardner, who is notoriously vague about his intentions. But with other states encroaching on the Granite State's closely guarded tradition, Gardner and one of his closest allies, state Representative Jim Splaine, have been hinting that the date might be in December, perhaps Tuesday the 11th.

As a result, the presidential campaigns are girding for a much earlier New Hampshire primary than they have been anticipating.

"Last week I would have said it was crazy," said a senior aide to one leading Democratic candidate, speaking on condition of anonymity. "This week, I'd say it's possible."

That Gardner will pick a December primary date is still largely speculation, and Gardner did not immediately return a call yesterday. Thus the campaigns say they are not about to make wholesale changes to their overall strategies.

But campaign aides say they are closely monitoring the situation in the event Gardner sets the primary date less than two months from now. The stakes are high, because a shift in the schedule could help some candidates and hurt others.

"Certainly we're aware, and we have our feelers out like everyone else does," said an aide to former senator John Edwards of North Carolina.

Senator John McCain of Arizona even sent out a fund-raising solicitation this week referring to a Washington Post story last week in which Gardner was quoted calling December a possibility.

"The bottom line is: There is a possibility that New Hampshire may move up its 'First in the Nation' primary from early January to early December. That's one full month earlier than anyone is currently planning on," the solicitation reads.

Traditionally, Iowa caucus- goers cast the first votes of the primary season, while New Hampshire holds the first primary. But other states, such as Michigan and Florida, have moved up their primaries in hopes of playing a more pivotal role in the nominating process. So several primaries or caucuses are now crammed into January. Iowa Republicans this week scheduled their caucus for Jan. 3.

Splaine, who helped write the laws preserving New Hampshire's unique status, floated the idea of a Dec. 11 primary last week on a political blog. He explained yesterday that while Jan. 8 could work as a primary date, he fears what he calls the "squish effect," where the state's influence on the election is diluted because its primary is held too close to votes in other states.

"We have to talk about a December option," Splaine said in the interview, putting the odds at 50-50. Splaine also suggested that mentioning December served as a warning to other states.

"They have to know, too, that we will do what we need to do in order to protect the character of the New Hampshire primary," he said.