Evangelical Christians remain wary of top GOP candidates

WASHINGTON - John Ayers, a 77-year-old retiree, stood outside the cavernous hall where Republican presidential candidates yesterday were courting more than 2,000 evangelical Christians. Several candidates addressed the Values Voter Summit, even though a key organizer, James Dobson of Focus on the Family, has said he could never vote for them.

"We are in a quandary," Ayers said. "We don't know what to do."

One candidate that Ayers likes, US Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado, is barely a blip in the polls. Another candidate aligned with Christian conservatives, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, dropped out of the race yesterday because of lack of support and money. Yet the four highest-polling candidates - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson - give many evangelicals pause.

The question facing voters like Ayers has become a crucial factor in the Republican presidential race. More than one-third of voters in Southern primaries are evangelical Christians, and they are particularly important in states such as South Carolina that hold early primaries. If evangelical leaders rally behind one candidate, it could shape the contest. But if they remain divided, as they appeared to be yesterday, it could help socially moderate candidates like Giuliani, who supports abortion rights.

The enthusiasm of evangelicals could also be crucial in the general election. In 2004 white evangelicals made up 23 percent of the record 126 million voters, and 78 percent of them supported President Bush, a major factor in the defeat of Senator John F. Kerry, according to exit polls.

As a result, the Values Voter Summit was as much a debate about political strategy as it was about the values of the candidates. The most prominent theme was Hillary Clinton. "Hillary as president-to-be strikes fear in my heart," Ayers said, standing near a booth where "Anybody But Clinton" buttons were being sold.

Each of the candidates who appeared at the summit yesterday tried to play into the fear of Clinton, portraying themselves as the best Republican hope to defeat US senator from New York.

Hours before his speech, Romney announced the endorsement of Don Wilton, the immediate past president of the South Carolina Baptist Convention, who said Romney shares his values on important issues such as gay marriage and abortion.

"While we may not agree on theology," Wilton said in a statement, in reference to Romney's Mormon faith, "Governor Romney and I agree that this election is about our country heading in the right direction."

In his speech last night, Romney won a series of ovations as he outlined his plans for strengthening families, opposing abortion, and supporting a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He then briefly raised an issue on the minds of many evangelicals: the fact that many do not consider Mormonism to be a Christian faith. He did so by telling a joke.

"By the way, I imagine that one or two of you have heard I'm a Mormon," Romney said. "I understand that some people think they couldn't support someone of my faith. But I think that's just because they've listened to Harry Reid," Romney said, referring to the Democratic leader in the US Senate, who is also a Mormon.

Many in the audience of nearly 3,000 people laughed appreciatively, and Romney said he was pleased that people of all faiths were supporting his candidacy.

While Romney did not mention his Republican rivals by name, his spokesman, Kevin Madden, sent out an e-mail yesterday that accused Giuliani of having the same position as Clinton on abortion and gay marriage, saying, "If the Republican Party nominates a candidate who shares the same positions as Hillary Clinton on social issues, then we risk losing our identity as a party, and we risk losing the White House to her."

The Giuliani campaign was similarly tart, issuing a lengthy list of what it described as similar quotations from Romney and Clinton on issues.

"Mitt Romney's latest political pandering proves yet again he is merely a candidate of convenience," communications director Katie Levinson said.

Romney's conversion to an antiabortion position was frequently mentioned by summit attendees, some of whom questioned whether the switch was genuine.

The event was also attended by members of the Log Cabin Republicans, which advocates gay rights. Members said their mission was to make sure the evangelicals realized Romney had once supported abortion rights and gay rights, and thereby undercut his support among social conservatives. They passed out copies of a letter Romney wrote in 1994 in which he sought the endorsement of the Log Cabin Club of Massachusetts based on "the values and vision of government we share."

McCain, who criticized evangelical leaders during his 2000 campaign as "agents of intolerance," told the audience that he strongly opposes abortion and has been shaped by his Christian faith. "I have been prolife my entire public career," McCain said.

Then, in what could be interpreted as a reference to Romney, McCain added, "I believe I am the only major candidate in either party who can make that claim."

Even though Dobson has said "I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," McCain seemed to be warmly received, especially after he recalled how his faith helped him survive more than five years as a prisoner during the Vietnam War.

In a brief interview after the speech, McCain sounded confident when asked whether he could win over evangelicals in spite of Dobson's criticism.

"I'm always well received because I'm a good speaker," McCain said, flashing his trademark grin.

Thompson has also been sharply criticized by Dobson, who questioned whether the former Tennessee senator was a Christian and criticized his position against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

Appearing on stage with his wife, Jeri, Thompson repeatedly mentioned his two young children. The candidate, whose work as a lawyer for a family planning group has been criticized by evangelicals, told the audience how his antiabortion views were strengthened when he saw an image of his child before birth.

"Seeing a sonogram of my own child, I will never think the same exactly again," Thompson said. "I guess, more appropriately stated, I will never feel exactly the same again, because my heart now is fully engaged with my head."

A potentially significant factor could be former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, an ordained minister who has portrayed himself as a natural fit for the evangelicals and who hopes to peel off some of Brownback's former supporters. Huckabee and Giuliani are scheduled to address the evangelicals this morning. Giuliani is leading in most national polls, while Huckabee has been slowly rising and is in fifth place in some polls and in a statistical tie for second place, behind Romney, in Iowa, the site of the first caucuses.

While Dobson has received much publicity for his influence among evangelicals, the extent of his power is being tested. Dobson has ruled out voting for McCain, Thompson, or Giuliani, and has said he might vote for a third-party candidate if Republicans nominate someone who favors abortion rights. Gary Bauer, the head of the conservative group Our American Values, has warned that support for a third-party candidate might hand the presidency to Clinton.

Rudy Novak, 78, a summit attendee from Tennessee, said Dobson's view was not decisive. "It's an input," he said. "It's a data point." Novak said he was undecided about whom to support.

As for Ayers, the retiree from Charlotte, N.C., said he was considering backing Romney. "I really think Romney is perhaps the only shot at winning, and yet I have reservations about him because my beliefs as a conservative Christian don't jibe with Mormonism," Ayers said. "I don't think anybody who is electable represents my views in any tangible way."

Michael Kranish can be reached at kranish@globe.com.