It's the economy
It once seemed Iraq would be the central talking point for candidates. But as voters grow anxious over a worsening outlook, one issue is figuring more prominently in the presidential campaign.
In a presidential campaign so far dominated by war and security, pocketbook concerns are commanding more attention from candidates and voters alike as the economy softens and financial pressures grow on many families.
Republican candidates tussled over taxes and trade at a Michigan debate Oct. 9, with Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, and Rudy Giuliani, the ex-mayor of New York, challenging each other's tax- and budget-cutting credentials.
At the same time, leading Democrats have been reaching out to voters squeezed by financial hardship. New York Senator Hillary Clinton proposed incentives for retirement and college savings along with relief for homeowners facing foreclosure, while Illinois Senator Barack Obama called for closing some corporate loopholes and overhauling the tax code to give poor and middle-class taxpayers $85 billion in relief.
The focus on the economy comes as a national slowdown, marked by high energy prices, tight credit, and a pullback in consumer spending, has fueled recession jitters. "If the economy cools, it could be the number one issue," said former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, public policy professor at the University of California at Berkeley.
Economic issues, which historically have loomed large on the campaign trail, have been mostly overshadowed this year by talk of terror and the bitter divide over the war in Iraq. That is starting to change, however. Jobs, the economy, and healthcare together were cited as top concerns by 38.2 percent of likely voters in a Zogby International poll taken between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8. That was second to the war in Iraq and terrorism, which were cited by 66.1 percent.
In June, a similar Zogby poll showed 73 percent citing war and terror and 25.7 percent the economy and healthcare. The change appears to reflect rising economic anxiety and a sense that America's commitment in Iraq will begin winding down next year.
"If troops start to withdraw from Iraq, or there's general Iraq fatigue, then the economy could define 2008," said independent pollster John Zogby.
One reason the economy hasn't figured prominently in the presidential race until now may be the broad areas of agreement within each party. Despite the jousting of Romney and Giuliani in Dearborn, Mich., this month, all of the major GOP candidates have embraced the mantra of fiscal responsibility that has worked effectively for past presidential hopefuls from Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush.
"They're all trying to get into the Republican zone of tax cutting and spending reductions," said Grover Norquist, president of the conservative policy group Americans for Tax Reform. "It's the winning move for a Republican: run with a tax cut front and center."
In stressing fiscal discipline, candidates also distance themselves from the White House, regarded by some Republicans as having abandoned conservative principles on spending, Norquist said.
A conspicuous departure from the Republican script has been the free trade skepticism creeping into the GOP dialogue.
Some candidates have openly called for trade barriers and tougher negotiating postures with China and other nations. Duncan Hunter, the congressman from California, sounded a shrill note in last week's debate, stating ominously that "1.8 million jobs have moved to communist China from the United States."
Among Democrats, free trade differences have narrowed as the quickening pace of outsourcing and painful contract concessions by auto unions have underscored the threat of jobs shifting abroad.
Clinton and Obama, while continuing to defend free trade, have joined "fair trade" advocate John Edwards, the populist former North Carolina senator and Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2004, in questioning the impact of trade pacts on US workers. With growing numbers of would-be voters from both parties expressing similar qualms, "the polls are very clear that Americans no longer believe in free trade," said Reich.
On other economic issues, there is widespread agreement among Democrats. All favor boosting the minimum wage, some form of universal healthcare, and reforming the alternative minimum tax, which has been taking a toll on some middle-class voters.
"The problem on the Democratic side is they don't disagree very much," said John W. Gorman, chief executive at Opinion Dynamics in Waltham, a national polling and market research firm. "They're basically all saying that the economy stinks and we need to do more to help the middle class and working Americans."
It remains to be seen whether economic issues will resonate with voters as strongly as in past election years such as 1992, when Bill Clinton's campaign strategist James Carville coined the phrase, "the economy, stupid" to describe Clinton's focus on economic insecurity.
Zogby said there are growing signs people again are worrying more about the economy. "It's very real," he suggested, citing the rollback of employer-funded health benefits and the credit crunch in the housing market. "The old indicator of concern was when you knew someone who was laid off. Today it's when you know someone who lost their health benefits or was rejected for a loan."
The candidates have been working to differentiate themselves on economic issues to break away from the pack. Recently, for example, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, rolled out a plan that would expand healthcare access but attempt to control costs. Romney, meanwhile, called for making more medical expenses tax deductible. And, Edwards pledged to cut middle-class taxes by raising the capital gains tax rate on taxpayers earning more than $250,000 a year.
Clinton has been barnstorming across key primary states on a tour bus dubbed "Middle Class Express," promising "to change our economic course." Her health plan, which includes offering tax credits to working families, is less comprehensive than the one she championed in the 1990s.
"Democrats would rather talk about the economy," said Paul Weinstein Jr., chief operating officer at the Progressive Policy Institute, a Democratic think tank. "This is the playing field they want to be on. Families are continuing to struggle because incomes have been relatively flat. The Democrats have a real opportunity there."
But Pat Toomey, president of the Club for Growth, a policy group advocating lower taxes and free trade, said fiscal discipline has typically been "one of the Republican's areas of strength," especially when the economy is expanding, as it has for nearly six years.
Still, he acknowledged, "the Republican brand has been badly damaged because of the wasteful spending and expansion of government" under the current administration and Congress. "At least the leading Republican candidates can truthfully claim they were out of Washington when this all got out of hand," he said.
Robert Weisman can be reached at weisman@globe.com. 