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Campaign Notebook

Undecided South Carolina reflects GOP presidential race at large

Senator John McCain of Arizona (center) greeted supporters Saturday at a bed and breakfast in Simpsonville, S.C. Senator John McCain of Arizona (center) greeted supporters Saturday at a bed and breakfast in Simpsonville, S.C. (Alan Devorsey/The Greenville News)
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November 5, 2007

The Republican presidential contest in South Carolina, a Southern bastion of rough-and-tumble politics, reflects the race at large - a jumble that could go any way.

If history is a guide, South Carolina could predict the outcome. Since 1980, no Republican has won the nomination without capturing the Palmetto State.

"I'm still deciding. I want to know which one fits what I think the best, so I'm very open," Trish O'Neill, 57, said while waiting at a restaurant in Irmo, S.C., to hear from yet another candidate. Next to her, Debbie Plowman, 64, agreed and, with a hint of exasperation, added: "It's getting to be time to figure it out."

Such sentiments from Republican voters shed light on why each of the four top GOP contenders - Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and John McCain - believes he has a strong chance to win here - and why each is running hard. One poll found nearly one-third of likely GOP voters are undecided 11 weeks before the Republican primary Jan. 19.

"It's unpredictable because of the undecideds. It's open for the top three or four candidates," said Katon Dawson, the state party chairman. Added Tucker Eskew, a veteran of South Carolina GOP politics: "We've liked our front-runners, and since we don't have one, we have all kinds of fragmentation."

ASSOCIATED PRESS

A shift on immigration

John McCain spent months earlier this year declaring that the United States must combine border security efforts with a temporary worker program and an eventual path to citizenship for many illegal immigrants.

Now, the Republican presidential candidate emphasizes securing the borders first. The rest, he says, is needed but will have to come later.

"I understand why you would call it a, quote, shift," McCain told reporters in South Carolina on Saturday after voters questioned him on his position during appearances in the early voting state. "I say it is a lesson learned about what the American people's priorities are. And their priority is to secure the borders."

The shift in approach is likely to draw criticism from McCain's GOP opponents. Immigration has been a flash point in the race, with rivals Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson seizing on it.

McCain, who has been a leader on the issue in the Senate with Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, got a wake-up call in June when Congress again rejected a broad immigration proposal that he championed. Earlier this year, the Arizona senator saw his poll numbers slip in some states and his fund-raising wane. "You've got to respond to the people," he said.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Thompson backs adviser

Republican Fred Thompson said yesterday that he was unaware of the criminal past of an adviser to his presidential campaign, but that he wouldn't "throw my friend under the bus" for decades-old indiscretions.

Thompson has flown around the country in a private jet borrowed from businessman Philip Martin, a cochairman of Thompson's campaign who has a criminal record for drug dealing, the Washington Post reported yesterday.

Martin pleaded guilty to the sale of 11 pounds of marijuana in 1979, but the court withheld judgment pending completion of his probation. In 1983, he pleaded no contest to cocaine-trafficking and conspiracy charges, and was continued on probation.

Thompson said he learned about Martin's past on Saturday and understood that the crimes were committed when he was in his 20s and living in Florida, before Martin moved to Tennessee and the two became friends. "Nobody's made any accusations that he's done anything illegal with regard to our campaign," Thompson said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"I know Phil is a good man. He is my friend. He is going to remain my friend. . . . He's paid his debt to society and turned himself around and become a good, productive, successful citizen," Thompson said.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

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