MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire's huge bloc of independent voters, who can vote in either party's presidential primary and had been expected to opt overwhelmingly for the 2008 Democratic contest, are taking a new look at candidates on the Republican side, according to a Boston Globe poll by the University of New Hampshire.
Independents are the state's largest and potentially most crucial voting group, accounting for 44 percent of the electorate. Their support has been crucial to past winners of the New Hampshire primary, including Republican John McCain in 2000.
This year, with competitive races on both sides, independents had been expected to vote heavily in the Democratic primary, with 72 percent in a UNH poll as recently as June saying they would take a Democratic ballot. In the Globe poll, released Sunday, 55 percent said they would take a Democratic ballot.
The news that more independents are planning to vote Republican is most welcome to McCain, the Arizona senator who has said winning over independents is "vital" to his success. In 2000, he won overwhelmingly among independents, drawing votes away from Democrat Bill Bradley. This time, analysts said, McCain seems to be competing for independent voters with Democrat Barack Obama.
"One thing I know about the independent voters . . . is that they don't make up their minds until very, very late in the process," McCain told reporters in New Hampshire earlier this year.
The decrease in the percentage of independents who expect to vote in the Democratic primary appears to be the result of at least four factors, according to analysts: Some independents may have concluded that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic primary and would prefer to vote in the tighter Republican contest; some independents have shown strong interest in the antiwar candidacy of Representative Ron Paul, a Republican; McCain has ticked up in the UNH polls among independent voters; and Obama has not drawn as much independent support as some analysts had expected.
Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said independents are more likely to vote in the GOP primary "if they think the race is over on the Democratic side."
Brad Holt, 47, of Manchester is a registered independent who is undecided but open to candidates in both parties. He voted for Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman in 2004 and, due to growing concern about the Iraq war, is considering whether to support a Democrat this time. But he is also thinking about supporting someone in the Republican primary. He said he is taking a serious look at both Paul and McCain. "Being independent, I get a wider choice of candidates," he said, adding, "And I don't have to put up with so many harassing phone calls."
In the 2000 Republican primary, McCain beat George W. Bush among independents 61 percent to 19 percent, while he won among Republicans by a 44 percent-to-36 percent margin.
Mary Rauh, who was the state cochairwoman for Bradley in 2000, said the Bradley campaign learned the importance of the independent vote the hard way. The former New Jersey senator narrowly lost to then-Vice President Al Gore partly because so many independents took a Republican ballot and voted for McCain. Today she is cochairwoman of the Obama campaign.
Rauh said Bradley's "real opponent wasn't in the Democratic primary; it was John McCain." Obama has learned from Bradley's experience, she said. "From day one, this campaign has made independents an important focus," she said. "All phone calls have included them, all mail pieces have included them, all door-knocking plans have included them. They are integral to the strategy."
But so far, Obama has exactly the same level of support - 21 percent - from Democrats as he does from independents. In order to beat Clinton, Obama needs to pick up far more independent support, analysts said.
McCain, meanwhile, is likely to get a smaller percentage of independent votes in 2008 than in 2000, but those votes could mean more in a crowded field. The Globe poll indicated that McCain is supported by 20 percent of independents but just 15 percent of registered Republicans.
