Susan_Milligan: Hi, folks. I'm Susan Milligan, the Globe's National Political Correspondent. I'm happy to take your questions.
howie: I love Ron Paul!!
Susan_Milligan: Not actually a question. But Mr. Paul indeed has a very devoted following.
howie: Does Ron Paul have a chance in N.H.?
Susan_Milligan: I think Paul could do a little better than some people anticipate. He is the only GOP candidate who opposes the war, and attracts some Republicans because of that. His libertarian message also appeals to some in his party. But Republicans -- like Democrats -- this year are pretty concerned with electability, which works against him. I do not personally expect him to place in the top three or four in NH. But the only opinion that matters is the one expressed by the voters there Jan. 8.
ernie: Bill Clinton is in N.H. today, will he help Big Hill's campaign?
Susan_Milligan: Bill Clinton is still exceptionally popular among Democrats, and his sheer star power attracts crowds. He has made a couple of stumbles - saying Hillary Clinton had been ``Swift Boated'' like John Kerry after HRC's Democratic rivals attacked her ina debate. he also said recently he was against the Iraq war from the beginning, although there are no indications of that in the record. That may draw more attention to Senator Clinton's vote for the resolution authorizing force in Iraq. Then, there are people who are nervous about a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton series in the Oval Office. All that said, the former president is still a big draw, especially among Dems.
Michael_D: What are the prospects for a big move up the charts for Biden?
Susan_Milligan: Well, anything could happen, and Biden has gotten good reviews for his debate performances of late. But Democrats seem to be looking for someone they think can win the nomination and the general, and his poll numbers at the moment don't show that to be very likely. He also suffers from a lack of cash in a filed where at least two candidates have raised more than $100 million apiece.
momoney: What are McCain's chances at this point? Seems like there is at least a 4 way race for GOP with Huckabee surging.
Susan_Milligan: I do think both races are wide open - and more so than they were a month ago. McCain, of course, has been struggling, and the immigration issue has not helped him with the conservative wing of his party. But if Huckabee wins Iowa, that shakes up the whole race. I don't count out anyone this early -- too many opportunities for someone to stumble. Nothing's for certain. Take a look at the NE Patriots -- which now look like not only the likely Super Bowl winners, but arguably one of the best teams the NFL has ever produced. But what if Tom Brady blew out his knee in the next game? (not that I want that to happen, though I am a Bills fan). Then everything changes. Same goes with politics.
tower_of_power: Do you think Hillary planted that gay general in the GOP YouTube debate? Is this a trend? And why aren't more people outraged by it?
Susan_Milligan: I have no way of knowing if he was planted. I'm not quite as outraged over his appearance as others are. While I think it is best NOT to have questioners who are closely affiliated with a campaign, he asked a legitimate question. I do think, at the very least, he or CNN should have disclosed his affiliation with the Clinton campaign.
paulie8890: I think Mitt Romney is easily the best candidate out there. If he didn't have the black mark of being a Mormon, do you think he'd be running away with the nomination? Don't you think it's unfair his religion is what holds him back?
Susan_Milligan: I've been stunned and deeply disappointed at some of the e-mails I get from people about Mormons -- not about Romney, who's fair game as a candidate, but about Mormonism itself. But he may well be able to make people comfortable with his religion - and he's going to try on Thursday, when he is scheduled to give a speech about his faith. I think the issue for people is more that they want to be sure he would not use the White House to further some Mormon ``agenda,'' though I don't know what that would be.
t1murphy: Why makes Mitt Romney such an attractive candidate? Every time I see him speak in a debate he is tripping over his tie to answer the question like a republican. I thought he did terrible in last weeks debate.
Susan_Milligan: Maybe you shouldn't have lunch with the previous questioner, then.
Susan_Milligan: Well, his current message is anti-abortion, anti gay rights, anti-stem cell research and tough on illegal immigration, which appeals to some people in the party -- especially those who think Giuliani is too moderate and don't like McCain for some reason. But I think his position changes on those issues will continue to haunt him.
zags: A Harris Interactive Poll taken in 1993 asked "The higher someone?s income is, the more he or she should expect to pay in taxes to cover the cost of people who are less well off and are heavy users of medical services-agree/disagree. In '93, 66% percent agreed. In 2003 only 51% percent agreed. This suggests a thinning of Americas social compact-for a lot of reasons. Apart from the war in Iraq, how do the Democrats stack up against this sentiment in your view?
Susan_Milligan: Well, I can't comment on the poll results, since I haven't studied them, and I'm frankly very suspicious of interactive polls, since they self-select a certain part of the population. All of the Democrats have discussed rolling back the tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans. Obama and Edwards have talked about making the Social Security tax less regressive -- right now, the rate is the same for everyone, whether you;re making $10,000 a year or $10 million, and it tops out at $97,500. That means people making $10 million a year (or, actually, anything over $97,500) pay a lower rate than those making just $10,000 a year. Clinton has hedged on this issue, saying lifting the cap would lead to a $1 trillion tax hike. Obama and Edwards have both talked about having a sort of ``doughnut hole'' in the rate schedule, so that people making, for example, $97,500 to $200,000 a year, would not pay more in Social Security taxes. But then, the tax would kick in again at $200,000.
omarg_21: Who're your guesses as to vice presidential picks? You can do an "if then" scenario, like "If Hillary gets the nomination...."
Susan_Milligan: I mentally penciled in Mike Huckabee for the GOP when I first met him in February in NH. Engaging, southern, and with a powerful personal story, he's a natural pick for the Republicans. He's got solid Christian conservative credentials, which would help Romney, McCain or Giuliani -- all of whom have some problems with that wing of the party. And he doesn't come off as a fire-and-brimstone, angry sort -- he talks about the compassion that his religion demands. On the Democratic side, I personally think Bill Richardson would be a strong pick. He's got foreign policy credentials that would help the ticket, and more importantly, he's a pro-gun governor of a Western state. The Democrats' growth potential is in the Interior West, and Richardson could seal the deal in states like Colorado,Nevada, Arizona, and of course, his native New Mexico. I think the mountain states may well decide the general election next fall. But the nominees may well pick people who are not even on our radar screen now.
thatGUY: who do you think will be the next president of the united states?
Susan_Milligan: I really have no idea. And I'm not being evasive. I really think this could go in a lot of directions. Further, I think the issues in the campaign will change substantially - the mortgage crisis threatens to put us in a recession, or at least a substantial economic slowdown, that could make the economy a leading issue. Immigration may also be a factor.
thatGUY: is there any possibility of an obama/clinton tag team for president?
Susan_Milligan: I think it's unlikely. First, I think the party will be reluctant to have two ``firsts'' on the ticket, with a female and a mixed-race candidate. Second, neither one adds to the base geographically. And third, I doubt either one wants to face being upstaged by the other every day at the White House. Both are compelling personalities -- and if one of them was veep, that person would get lots more press and attention than the vice president usually does.
Michael_D: We know who the top three Democrats are at the moment. Is there another that could break into the top with a surprise #3 or #2 finish in Iowa or NH?
Susan_Milligan: It doesn't appear that way, from the current polls. I don't like to rely on polls to answer your question, but we don't have much else to go on right now. That being said, it's early -- most voters in those contests don't make up their minds until the week before -- and Iowa especially is very difficult to predict. It takes a big commitment, to attend caucuses, and you never know who's going to actually show up. Even the Democratic chair in Iowa, in an interview we did on Saturday, said he didn't put any stock in the Iowa polls for that reason.
dow_jones: Speaking of Romney's Thursday speech, he's been trumping that up all week -- what's it going to be about? Today's Globe story made it sound like it would be about nothing. So who cares? Why is he building up this tension?
Susan_Milligan: I guess he's hoping you'll tune in.
Susan_Milligan: No matter what he says, the very fact that he feels he has to deliver such a speech is notable. It reflects a concern by his campaign that his Mormon faith could be an issue.
t1murphy: What do you think about Bloomberg might make a run as a third party candidate? How far is America from having more then just one democrat and one republican on the ballot for President? It seems that many people are tired of both parties and the never ending scandals and broken promises. I would like to see 5 or more serious candidate for president.
Susan_Milligan: Me, too, actually. I think campaigns become more about issues when there's a bigger field - which is also why I'm not eager to see primary candidates drop out too soon. I think questions get raised that otherwise would not when more people are running. And having just two choices tends to turn the dynamic into a Sharks-vs-the Jets fight. As for Bloomberg..he's got the money, of course, but I still think it's way too late for someone to start campaigning now. Being a third-party candidate is hard enough; you can't start this late. I do think there is a movement toward having a third party - independents are becoming more prominent nationwide -- but that trend will take a long time to mature.
thatGUY: what do YOU personally think the chances are of a republican winning the presidential election?
Susan_Milligan: Months ago, I would have told you that given the unpopularity of Bush and the Iraq war, that the Democrats would really, really have to screw it up to lose. Now, I give the Republicans more of a chance, especially since the Iraq war is receding a bit as an issue. A lot depends on who the nominees are and what the country looks like next year. If we're in a recession, whom do voters blame? Or what if things heat up in Iran -- notwithstanding the NIE report showing that Iran stopped pursuing a nuclear program a long time ago? I really could see this playing out in many ways.
jake3063: What do you think voter turn out will be this election cycle?
Susan_Milligan: It depends on who the nominees are, I think. Clinton, for example, would probably turn out more voters for both parties. One trend we have been seeing is a growth in young voter participation. Pollsters think we could see a record turnout next year of 18-26-year-old voters.
momoney: Do you think people are also attracted to Mitt's proven competence, which is clearly lacking in the White House today? The other candidates might be slicker talking pols, but maybe some voters have had enough of the DC culture?
Susan_Milligan: Well, I think voters are attracted to candidates for a whole host of reasons. In terms of the primary campaign, though, Romney has focused more on his socially conservative message -- thuogh it's a switch from his earlier stands -- as opposed to, say, his involvement in passing an historic health care policy in Massachusetts. It's airly extraordinary for ANY state to agree on something so dramatic as the Mass. plan (which requires people to have health insurance, kind of like car insurance, and Republican Romney managed to do it with a Democratic legislature. But he doesn't bring that up much on the trail.
Joe: Any thoughts on Hillary's strategy to go totally negative against Obama? This seems to play into the general perception of her that she is calculating and poll driven. She is also attacking Obama's character, not his policies. That is exactly what she has complained about the "right wing" doing to her.
Susan_Milligan: I think Clinton is nervous about polls (polls! again!) that show Obama leading in Iowa (though with the margin of error, they're in a dead heat). The interesting thing here, though, is that Clinton has made the ``inevitability'' of her nomination a central part of her campaign. So if she loses in Iowa, it has a more detrimental effect on her than it would for another candidate, Normally, I'd blame the press for creating expectations and then punishing candidates who don't achieve them, but in this case, it has been the Clinton campaign and the candidate herself who have set the goal posts where they are. I do think a recent press release I received from them -- dredging up Obama's kindergarten and third-grade essays saying he wanted to be president someday as proof that he has had longtime ambition for the job -- looked a little desperate.
t1murphy: Is Al Gore going to jump into things, maybe as a third party environment candidate?
Susan_Milligan: The man has an Oscar, an Emmy and the Nobel Peace Prize, and he's working on an issue that matters very deeply to him, global warming. Why would he want to put that aside so he could spend 20 hours a day calling people up and asking them for money so he can run, then getting on and off planes and buses, standing in frozen cornfields, and having to deal with us reporters all the time? Campaigning is grueling and often infuriating, especially for those who feel they are being unfairly attacked. People do it because - at least in part - they want to make a change in the world. Al Gore is already doing that by the work he's doing now. I can't imagine him running for president next year.
thatGUY: who might be the leading candidate on the economy for both parties?
Susan_Milligan: Good question. Edwards has been talking a lot about poverty, but it hasn't gotten him as much traction as he'd like. I did notice that at the Michigan GOP debate, Huckabee was the only one -- or one of just a couple -- of Republicans who did not deliver a lot of happy talk on the economy. It will be interesting to see how that plays out if things slow next year in the economy.
Joe: I read a quote today that the Clinton team hates Obama as much as Bush because he's challenging her inevitability...I don't think either would be a VP.
Susan_Milligan: Well, I don't know who said that, so I don't know if it's true. But it makes sense that someone challenging Clinton would question her inevitability, and it makes sense that she wouldn't like it. Bush draws a lot of contempt from Democrats, so I think it's pretty unlikely Clinton sees Obama the same way.
thatGUY: Where's Nader?
Susan_Milligan: He's been quiet, hasn't he? Maybe he'll surface next year. We'll see.
Susan_Milligan: Well, folks, our time is up. Thanks for the chat!
