Independent groups poised to play big role in election
DES MOINES - Threatened by Mike Huckabee's rocketlike rise to the top of Iowa polls, a Washington antitax group launched attack ads against him yesterday, the latest onslaught by outside groups hoping to exert outsized influence on the presidential campaign.
The 60-second TV spots seek to raise alarm about Huckabee's support for tax increases while he was Arkansas governor. "Call Mike Huckabee. Ask why he supported all those taxes," says the ad from Club for Growth, which has bought $175,000 worth of TV time and vows to buy more.
With wide-open nomination contests in both parties, 2008 is shaping up to be the most expensive White House race in history. But a constellation of new and existing independent political action committees, nonprofits, and so-called 527 organizations - many of which are unencumbered by the contribution limits that candidates must follow - are poised to play a greater role than ever before.
Analysts say the groups are becoming active earlier than past elections, encouraged by two competitive primary races, a recent Supreme Court decision loosening campaign finance restrictions, and the success of the group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in damaging Senator John F. Kerry's 2004 candidacy.
"I expect a very high level of activity," said Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. "We saw it in 2004, we saw it again in 2006. I expect to see at least as much, if not more, in 2008."
But you don't have to tell that to Iowa voters.
Fliers land in mailboxes slamming Hillary Clinton's "radical pro-abortion policies." A full-page newspaper ad highlights Mitt Romney's reversals on abortion. Someone - it is still unclear who - orchestrated recent calls to voters in Iowa and other early-voting states raising negative perceptions of Romney's Mormon faith.
Indeed, while some independent groups operate openly, listing their donors and expenditures with government agencies, others, aided by loopholes in campaign finance law, remain in the shadows, launching hard-to-trace attacks.
Kent Cooper, who founded CQ MoneyLine, which tracks money in politics, said that with candidates forced to spend resources in so many states because of the accelerated primary schedule, it leaves them vulnerable to attacks by well-funded adversaries.
"That potential is just sitting right out there," said Cooper, a former Federal Election Commission official.
At the same time, the leading candidates are raising so much money that they may be able to blunt the impact of such attacks, said Anthony Corrado, a campaign finance specialist at Colby College.
"It will certainly have some effect, but one of the problems that groups have this year is they are facing a flood of candidate money like they've never seen before," he said.
That isn't dissuading the independent groups from trying.
Before you can even finish asking antiabortion activist Mary Lewis why she launched her new political action committee, she practically spits out her answer: "Hoping to hurt Hillary!"
Lewis, who lives in Southern California, chairs the Life and Liberty PAC, a conservative group reconstituted last month to bring down presidential candidates who support abortion rights. Its target for now is Clinton, whom the PAC has attacked in more than $50,000 worth of phone calls and pamphlets.
TV ads will soon follow in Iowa.
"I just started watching her get traction, and particularly in the church community and among women, and I was appalled," Lewis said.
The anti-Romney newspaper ad - and an accompanying 30-second TV spot - were produced by Republican Majority for Choice, a group supporting abortion rights that is targeting him for changing positions on the issue. A past supporter of abortion rights, Romney reversed his position after studying stem cell research as governor. "Take a stand, Mr. Romney," the ad's narrator says.
Club for Growth has spent $260,000 running anti-Huckabee ads, including some that aired before an August GOP straw poll in Ames, Iowa, where Huckabee finished second to Romney. The group, which Huckabee has dubbed "Club for Greed," says it plans to dramatically increase its activity in the days ahead.
But for every group working to bring down a candidate, there seems to be another working to bolster his or her candidacy.
A new outfit called Trust Huckabee is calling voters and conducting grass-roots organizing on his behalf.
"We believe that only Mike Huckabee has been consistently reliable on our issues," said Patrick Davis, a Colorado political consultant who serves as the group's executive director. The group, funded in part by current and former executives at Procter & Gamble, opposes gay marriage, believes in limited government, and wants a strong national defense to fight Islamic terrorism.
The International Association of Fire Fighters has spent more than $200,000 this year on coffee mugs, Internet work, banners, bumper stickers, portable bathrooms, and "RV art & wrapping" to help Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut. Rick Reed, a former adviser to Senator John McCain of Arizona, founded a new nonprofit to run TV ads praising McCain as a leader on national security and spending.
Such outside groups are forbidden by federal election law from coordinating their efforts with the candidates, a distance that allows them to operate regardless of whether a candidate wants their help. Huckabee and McCain have asked their supporters to halt their independent campaigns.
No candidate appears to be the target, or intended beneficiary, of more third-party activity than Clinton, a reflection of the excitement her candidacy has generated among Democrats and women - and the fear it has stirred among Republicans and her critics.
Independent groups have reported spending more than $1 million this year to help or hurt her, a total that accounts only for organizations required to disclose their activity.
Analysts say that activity by third-party groups will ramp up markedly once the parties select their nominees; new entities on both sides of the aisle are positioning themselves now.
Operatives in both parties know well the lessons of 2004, when the Swift Boat ads - along with Kerry's flat-footed response - helped President Bush win reelection.
"It sends the message that it works, and that if you're a target of it you better be prepared to retaliate," Jacobson said. "It's like an arms race."
Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com. 