In Iowa, being 2d choice could result in a winning hand
DES MOINES - When the frenetic Democratic presidential race reaches the Iowa caucuses next month, the contenders will of course want as many passionate supporters as possible - the dedicated, cannot-imagine-voting-for-anyone-else kind.
But with a tight primary race featuring a polarizing candidate, plus a quirk in how caucuses work, the less zealous supporters might be the ones who make the difference on Jan. 3.
To earn any delegates in the Democratic caucuses in each of 1,781 precincts, candidates must reach a "viability" threshold. In most caucuses, the benchmark is 15 percent of participants.
In a wide-open, eight-candidate race, most Democrats are sure to fall short in scores of caucuses, and even leading candidates may miss the mark in some settings. And that is when things will get especially interesting on caucus night.
The supporters of candidates who don't reach the benchmark have several choices, including going home. But what often happens is this: Those candidates' supporters line up behind other candidates who are viable, adding to their strength and increasing their chances of winning that particular caucus. Thus winning is about not just being many voters' first choice, but many voters' second.
"In this race, especially since it is so close among the top three, where the second-choice folks decide to go is going to be absolutely critical, and in fact could determine the difference," said Matt Paul, who was Howard Dean's deputy Iowa director in 2004.
That means the outcome might hinge on voters like Florence Bell, a 65-year-old retired cashier and a Des Moines precinct captain for former senator John Edwards of North Carolina. Bell believes strongly that Edwards should be president, but she is also fond of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and would vote for him if Edwards failed to make the cut.
"To me, Obama is almost like Edwards," said Bell, who was forced to vote for Senator John F. Kerry, her second choice, in 2004 when her favorite candidate, Dean, foundered. "They believe in the same things, they'll fight for the same things."
John Clingan, a 44-year-old from Des Moines who works in retail, said he likes Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, but is prepared to caucus for Edwards, his second choice.
"Richardson was probably my first choice, but I don't know that he's going to be viable," Clingan said.
Advisers to Obama and Edwards believe their candidates stand to benefit from the second-choice phenomenon more than the other leading Democrat, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. They contend that voters not already supporting Clinton, the best-known candidate in the field, have made a clear choice against her.
"You want to be everyone's second choice," said Joe Trippi, a senior Edwards adviser. "She's almost no one's second choice."
A Rasmussen poll this week of likely Democratic caucus-goers found that Edwards was the second-choice candidate for 28 percent of respondents, compared with 20 percent for Obama and 14 percent for Clinton and Richardson. Among supporters of the candidates least likely to make the threshold - Richardson, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio, and Senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware - 29 percent said Edwards was their second choice, compared with 24 percent for Obama, 15 percent for Clinton.
Obama's campaign has been reaching out to voters who have not sided with Obama, but indicated they like him, hoping to land more supporters on Jan. 3. John Norris, who ran Kerry's winning Iowa operation in 2004 and is working for Obama this time, believes his candidate will benefit the most from voters' second choices, followed by Edwards.
"It's more of a gentle-touch persuasion," Norris said.
Clinton supporters have downplayed the importance of the second-choice factor. Paul, who said he is leaning toward Clinton, said she might prove to be a backup choice for many voters.
"We certainly like to think we've got this all figured out going into these and there's always a surprise," he said. "And that very well could be the surprise this cycle."
With the hundreds of caucuses occurring simultaneously in 99 counties across Iowa, the candidate with the deepest and most disciplined corps of volunteers and staffers will have the best success in capitalizing on the second-choice potential, said Barbara Trish, a political science professor at Grinnell College, east of Des Moines.
"This is the juncture at which I think the organization really does matter," she said.
And it might matter most in the frenzied half-hour of horse-trading that will ensue once each caucus determines which candidates are viable and which are not. Deals will be cut among the campaigns. Candidates' supporters and staff will lobby aggressively for stray caucus-goers. Candidacies could be made, or lost.
Only then will the power of Iowans' second choices be clear, which is why, despite the polling, it is so difficult to predict the outcome of the Democratic race. (Republicans have different caucusing rules for which voters' second choices are essentially irrelevant.)
Just consider voters like Richard Kaufman, a 63-year-old former owner of a tree-care company who packed into a pub in Dubuque last Sunday to see Biden.
"My wife and I, our theory is that we will start out for Biden, and our fallback is Obama," he said. "He is our favorite of the top three. We are really impressed by him."
So it's settled then?
"We might even start out with Biden," he said, "and then go with Dodd."
Marcella Bombardieri of the Globe staff contributed to this report; Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com. 