Independents may lift McCain, not Obama, in N.H.
HILLSBOROUGH, N.H. - For months, most polls have shown that New Hampshire's independent voters, who make up more than 40 percent of the electorate and can vote in either primary on Jan. 8, were more interested in the Democratic contest.
The major beneficiary of their support would probably be Barack Obama, who leads Hillary Clinton among independents by double-digit margins and whose message of common-sense bipartisanship resonates among undeclared voters.
But a poll this month has shown significantly more undeclared voters taking an interest in the Republican primary, which could hurt Obama and help Republican John McCain, who made a direct pitch yesterday to independents with the nation's most fa mous independent, Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, at his side.
Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, called on Republicans and independents to vote for McCain because he could "rise above the negativism and smallness of our politics and get things done for America."
Some see parallels to the drama that unfolded in the 2000 primaries, when many independents took a liking to Democrat Bill Bradley and to McCain, who portrayed themselves as antiestablishment mavericks, even going so far as to hold an event together on campaign finance reform. The independent crowd voted en masse for McCain, lifting him to a 18-percentage-point victory over George W. Bush in New Hampshire. Independents made up nearly one-third of the Republican electorate that year, and exit polls showed they went for McCain over Bush by a margin of 3 to 1.
In a pointed effort to recapture some of that magic, McCain's campaign also announced yesterday a new coalition of independent supporters in New Hampshire, a must-win state for McCain, who is running in second or third in the polls. Bolstering the campaign's effort to attract independents, several newspaper endorsements over the weekend emphasized McCain's dissents from Republican orthodoxy and ability to work with Democrats.
Yesterday before a crowd at an American Legion hall in Hillsborough, Lieberman made a pitch for McCain with clear echoes of Obama's appeal to "recapture that sense of common purpose."
"You may not agree with John McCain on everything - I don't," said Lieberman, who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, but then strayed from the party fold, especially on the Iraq war and national security, and was reelected to the Senate as an independent in 2006. "But you can always count on him to be honest with you about where he stands and to stand where he honestly thinks it's best for our country."
He and McCain talked about their work together on climate change, national security, and ethics issues, and about the need for bipartisan cooperation.
"The American people want some independence, they want somebody they believe will stand up for what they believe in and isn't bound by the special interests," McCain said. "I can see why Senator Obama's candidacy would be attractive to some in that respect."
McCain's pitch to those in the middle of the road is something of a reversal for a candidate who spent much of the last year trying to prove his conservative credentials to the party's skeptical base, which has sometimes bristled at his more moderate positions on campaign finance reform, illegal immigration, and taxes.
Some of McCain's supporters acknowledged he must tread carefully. "You're still running in a Republican primary as a Republican," said Peter Spaulding, McCain's state chairman. "You have to be careful you're not perceived as writing Republicans off."
But another prominent McCain supporter, former governor Walter Peterson, said that with the tightly bunched Republican field, a smaller share of independents' votes than in 2000 could still be decisive. "McCain doesn't have to get the same percentage he got the last time to raise hell," he said.
McCain has work to do even among Republican-leaning independents. A CNN/WMUR poll released last week showed that undeclared voters are divided among McCain, Rudy Giuliani, whose relatively moderate social views may appeal to independents, and Mitt Romney, arguably the most conservative of the three. The poll showed that 46 percent of independents planned to vote in the Republican primary, up from about one-third throughout most of the year.
It is not clear whether McCain could steal votes from Obama as he did from Bradley in 2000. Independents helped oust both of the state's Republican congressmen last year, replacing them with antiwar Democrats. And while Obama is the only leading presidential candidate to have opposed the war from the start, McCain is one of the biggest hawks in Congress - as is Lieberman.
Obama campaign officials rejected the notion that McCain is a threat to them, saying he represents the Washington establishment that their candidate hopes to change.
"I've heard more Republicans tell me they wish they could take a Democratic ballot, so I'd be very surprised if a wave of independents were switching to take a Republican ballot," said Jim Demers, one of the chairmen of Obama's campaign in New Hampshire.
Steve Hildebrand, Obama's national deputy campaign manager, dismissed the significance of Lieberman's endorsement.
"Just because Joe Lieberman has a label on him that says 'independent' doesn't mean voters are going to follow suit, when he represents policies they don't agree with," he said.
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, noted that many voters in 2000 saw little difference between the establishment candidates, Bush and Al Gore. The events of the last seven years have erased the idea that the parties are interchangeable.
"The undeclared voters leaning Democratic, they're not coming back to McCain because they're leaning Democratic for a reason," he said.
But Marcia Moran, a 51-year-old Concord lawyer who is a leader of the independents for McCain group, said that in her conversations with friends and acquaintances, she sees strong evidence of competition between McCain and Obama for independents.
"I think for a lot of voters, they are attracted to the high ideals of both candidates," said Moran, who hosted a party for McCain at her home yesterday. "But I think when push comes to shove, there are going to be a lot of independent voters who opt for [McCain's] character, experience, vision, and willingness to engage in bipartisan efforts to solve the problems facing America."
Sasha Issenberg can be reached at sissenberg@globe.com, and Lisa Wangsness at lwangsness@globe.com. 