DES MOINES - Women are likely to make up 60 percent or more of Democratic primary voters and caucusgoers in many states, including the crucial first state of Iowa, according to pollsters, political analysts, and campaign organizers.
While women have long been a majority of Democratic primary voters, stronger efforts this time by candidates to attract women who either haven't voted in primaries or who voted Republican in the past mean that female voters are expected to dominate the nomination process more than ever before.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, in particular, are wooing first-time female caucusgoers in Iowa, who could determine the outcome because the contest is so close. A new poll released yesterday by CNN showed a three-way statistical dead heat among Clinton, Obama, and John Edwards among likely Democratic caucusgoers.
The latest Des Moines Register poll predicted that about 62 percent of Democratic caucusgoers on Jan. 3 would be women, though determining ahead of time who will ultimately attend the caucuses is notoriously difficult. The Register's forecast is supported by the political action committee EMILY's List and top strategists in several campaigns.
"I think women are going to turn out and be the engines of this election, so it could be historic," said Kate Michelman, a prominent feminist leader who is a senior adviser to Edwards.
She added, "It's not because we have a woman running, but because of what's at stake."
Clinton's presence in the race first sparked the unusual level of attention to women's issues across the field of candidates, several political observers agreed. And her campaign is in overdrive trying to bring out working-class and single women who are less likely to vote or to caucus, but who polls indicate tend to favor Clinton.
But that doesn't mean that she can count on being the primary beneficiary, they said, since her leading rivals - Edwards and Obama - have also been assiduously courting female voters.
"There's been less of a sense in the past that you need to go after women specifically," said Susan J. Carroll, senior scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. "But when one candidate makes an explicit appeal, the others have to try to keep up."
While national polls have shown Clinton with a strong lead among women, the Register poll had Obama beating Clinton among women who were likely Iowa caucusgoers.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll published Wednesday showed Obama and Clinton statistically tied among women planning to attend the caucuses. In New Hampshire, which votes five days after Iowa, a CNN/WMUR poll released Wednesday found that Clinton has widened her lead over Obama and also has a 42 percent to 25 percent edge among women over Obama.
While Clinton has trumpeted her potential to make history as the first woman president, Obama staged two enormous rallies in Iowa earlier this month with his wife, Michelle, and Oprah Winfrey, which together attracted 28,000 Iowans.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of the former US senator from North Carolina, has campaigned across Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with her husband. Her bravery in the face of incurable breast cancer and the death of her teenage son have inspired many women.
In 2004, women made up 54 percent of attendees in both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.
Women were also 54 percent of the electorate in the general election in 2004, and because they lean more Democratic, they will be crucial to the party's hopes of winning the White House in 2008.
Still, some Democrats fret that they are at risk of becoming a "mommy party" that doesn't appeal to men, for example by not projecting enough toughness against terrorism.
And that's what some Republicans hope.
"It is totally legitimate to look and listen to the Democratic candidates across the board and say so far, this is an election about female voters," said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster. "They are totally ignoring men."
Others, however, point to polls showing women are very concerned about national security, and say that reaching out specifically to women does not necessitate alienating men.
Democrats also believe that they can pick up the votes of Republican and independent women in the primaries - and the general election - either because they want to vote for the first serious female contender, or because they have been disillusioned by the Iraq war and other issues such as President Bush's veto of a bill to expand a children's health insurance plan.
The three leading Democratic campaigns have created specific groups for female supporters, and websites and videos aimed at women.
The Women for Obama group's 20-minute film features emotional testimonials, including one young mother from Exeter, N.H., who describes how she has felt her heart "ripped open to the inequalities of the world" since the birth of her son.
Michele Obama and Elizabeth Edwards - as well as daughter Cate Edwards and Michelman - hold house parties or picnics aimed at women.
Supporters of Obama and Edwards say just because Clinton is a woman doesn't necessarily mean that she is the best candidate for women.
"This election does require everyone to take a second look," said Ann McLane Kuster, an attorney who is a cochairwoman of New Hampshire Women for Obama. "Every one of us starts off with the excitement of picking the first woman president. For me, it was a question of, what if the first women's candidate was a man?"
Yet even Clinton has surprised many longtime political observers with her strong pitch to voters about making history. She could have played down her gender, but embraced it as an important aspect of her candidacy.
Her campaign in Iowa is also especially focused on first-time female caucusgoers. EMILY's List, a group that backs Clinton and other female Democrats, recently released a web survey that indicated that about a third of Democratic women who definitely planned to caucus intended to vote for Clinton. But among women who were unsure of whether they would attend the caucus, half supported her.
The group plans to bring 5,000 to 10,000 of those women - who are active voters but who have not caucused before - to the Jan. 3 caucuses to support Clinton. Given that only 124,000 people caucused for Democrats in 2004, that could have a major impact on the outcome.
To reel them in, EMILY's List is using mailings, automated phone calls, and a website called yougogirl.com, which offers a guide to caucusing and even includes recipes that can be made ahead of dinner time, because caucuses will take place around that hour.
There may be some risk, however, that recipes and sappy videos will backfire with some women.
In interviews across Iowa, many women bristled at the idea that a candidate would do anything different to capture their attention.
"I hate the phrase 'women's issues,' " said Valerie Connell, 28, a ticket office manager at Iowa State University who was undecided. "I am more concerned about the environment and Social Security than having a woman president. And I don't care what Oprah says."
Marcella Bombardieri can be reached at bombardieri@ globe.com.
