DES MOINES - The presidential primary races, which had focused almost exclusively on domestic issues in recent weeks, yesterday shifted to a discussion of terrorism, leaving some campaigns wondering whether the crisis in Pakistan was the kind of unforeseen incident that could change expectations for the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses and beyond.
Voters view the candidates of both parties differently depending on whether the spotlight is on foreign or domestic policy. And the beneficiaries of a renewed focus on terrorism are clear, according to polls conducted late last month by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center: Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republicans John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani.
Giuliani, whose campaign appears to have been hurt in the polls when it has been centered on domestic issues, was the first candidate to release a statement after the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto yesterday, linking her killing to the threat of terrorism against the United States.
"Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere - whether in New York, Tel Aviv, or Rawalpindi - is an enemy of freedom," said Giuliani, the former New York mayor who has sought to reignite memories of the 9/11 attacks in the United States with his latest TV ad. "We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists' War on Us," his statement declared.
Over the past two days, Clinton and McCain have also released new TV ads citing the war on terrorism, indicating that they, too, wanted to shift the campaign agenda toward national security. Bhutto's slaying could keep the issue alive until next week's caucuses, analysts said.
"It underscores the instability in the region," said University of New Hampshire presidential historian Ellen Fitzpatrick, adding, "There's certainly nothing in this event that will make people feel like they live in a safer world."
And while no one could confidently say whether voters would be thinking of terrorism at next Thursday's caucuses, all of the candidates addressed the issue on the stump yesterday.
On the Republican side, McCain, a former prisoner of war who has made military issues a focus of his two-decade Senate career, told reporters that "I know the players, and I know best how to address this situation," noting that he had met with Bhutto and President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who is locked in a close battle with McCain in the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary, stressed his own skills in analyzing information assembled by specialists.
"The president is not an expert," Romney said in Manchester, New Hampshire. "The president is a leader who guides America in making the important decisions which must be made to keep us safe."
The Republican candidate who is leading in most Iowa polls, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, spoke about Bhutto's death while campaigning in Florida. But when Huckabee appeared uncertain whether Pakistan was under martial law at the time of Bhutto's killing - it had been lifted two weeks ago - bloggers jumped on the apparent slip-up.
In polls, Huckabee is vulnerable on foreign policy. In the most recent Pew polls, released late last month, Huckabee was the candidate of choice for 24 percent of Iowans - but only 10 percent said he would be the best at fighting terrorism. Nationally, only 4 percent said Huckabee was tops on terrorism.
Giuliani led the GOP field on terrorism with 39 percent nationally, vs. McCain's 23 percent. Romney was only slightly higher than Huckabee, getting 5 percent nationally and 14 percent in Iowa.
"It's worth noting that Romney and Huckabee were supported by 25 and 24 percent, respectively, [in Iowa], so relative to how well they were running those are pretty poor numbers on terrorism," said Michael Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center.
Another GOP contender with relatively low terrorism ratings, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, told supporters in Urbandale, Iowa, yesterday that he has the experience to handle a crisis.
"When [Secretary of State] Condoleezza Rice needed somebody to talk to on international security, she called me," Thompson said, not saying when the conversation occurred.
Among Democrats, Clinton held substantial leads nationally and in the early-voting states when the campaign was focused on foreign policy. Since then, she has fallen into tight races with Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina senator John Edwards in Iowa, and with Obama in New Hampshire.
A foreign crisis plays into what she says is her prime advantage over Obama and Edwards - experience. And she consistently ranked first among the Democrats in fighting terrorism in the Pew polling, leading Obama by at least 10 percentage points nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Campaigning in rural west Iowa yesterday, she called the world "unpredictable and often beyond our control." She offered condolences to Bhutto's family, and later spoke of her personal friendship with the former Pakistani prime minister.
She also sought to link the Pakistan crisis to other looming issues, both foreign and domestic. "Waiting on that president's desk in the Oval Office will be problems that are incredibly difficult, that present challenges to our leadership in the world, to our moral authority, to our economy, to the kind of society we are and want to be," she warned in a somber tone.
Edwards, for his part, said he spoke to Musharraf yesterday and urged him to continue the democratization process.
Obama offered condolences to the Pakistani people and stressed the need to confront global terrorism. His strategist, David Axelrod, told reporters that Obama could beat Clinton on foreign policy. The Pakistan crisis, Axelrod said, underscores questions about Clinton's vote to authorize the war in Iraq, which has sapped energy from the fight against Al Qaeda.
"Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it's in is because Al Qaeda is resurgent . . . and that's a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment going into Iraq," Axelrod said.
Clinton's spokesman accused Axelrod of politicizing Bhutto's death.
While the Clinton and Obama campaigns sparred, other Democrats with significant foreign policy experience seized on the Pakistan crisis to showcase their more nuanced understanding of the country's challenges.
Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he had twice urged Musharraf to increase security for Bhutto and that her death "raises a lot of hard questions for the government and security services that must be answered." Biden also said he was convinced that Bhutto would have won "free and fair" elections in Pakistan, adding: "Her assassination makes it all the more urgent that Pakistan return to a democratic path."
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, went further, saying Musharraf must step down.
"We must use our diplomatic leverage and force the enemies of democracy to yield," he said in a statement. "President Bush should press Musharraf to step aside, and a broad-based coalition government, consisting of all the democratic parties, should be formed immediately. Until this happens, we should suspend military aid to the Pakistani government. Free and fair elections must also be held as soon as possible."
Canellos reported from Des Moines and Bombardieri from western Iowa; Globe staff reporters Susan Milligan in Urbandale, Iowa, and Michael Kranish in Manchester, N.H., also contributed.
