Attacking McCain's record seen as risky for Romney
MANCHESTER, N.H. - The battle between Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire's Republican primary took a significant turn yesterday as Romney unveiled his first television advertisement attacking McCain's record.
But the strategy entailed significant risks, possibly turning voters against both candidates and toward another contender, analysts said.
The ad calls McCain "an honorable man," but questions whether he is "the right Republican for the future." It says McCain favored amnesty for illegal immigrants and opposed President Bush's tax cuts. McCain, who has revised his immigration proposal and later supported the tax cuts, laughed off the ad as the move of a candidate in a tailspin.
"I was encouraged because it was very clear that Governor Romney attacks when people are catching up with him," McCain said at a news conference shortly after arriving in Manchester yesterday. "I understand why he is talking about the future, since he spent most of his time running away from his past."
Last night McCain struck back at Romney, releasing a television commercial that quotes some stinging editorials this week about his opponent. Most prominently, the ad quotes the Concord Monitor editorial published on Sunday that urged voters to reject Romney, saying, "If a candidate is a phony . . . we'll know it." The ad also quotes the New Hampshire Union Leader saying that "Granite Staters want a candidate who will look them in the eye and tell them the truth. John McCain has done that . . . Mitt Romney has not."
By using the words of newspaper editorial writers instead of an anonymous announcer, McCain is hoping to add a tone of credibility and authority to his advertisement.
In response, Romney defended his ad and blasted McCain's.
"We worked very hard to make sure it was accurate and honest and looks at contrasting issues," Romney told reporters on his campaign bus in Iowa. "I begin the ad by indicating he's an honorable man. I believe he is, and a good person. I make no attacks on his character. I make no attacks of a personal nature whatsoever.
"I've just seen the text of his ad," Romney added. "It's obviously of a very different nature. It's an attack ad. It attacks me personally. It's nasty. It's mean-spirited. Frankly, it tells you more about Senator McCain than it does about me - that he'd run an ad like that."
Before airing the ad attacking Romney, McCain said New Hampshire voters "don't respond favorably to negative ad campaigns. We won't engage in that kind of campaigning." He had earlier yesterday also launched another ad that did not mention his rivals, but instead cited his endorsements from 20 New Hampshire newspapers, including one that said "McCain campaigns with decency." "McCain transcends partisanship," the ad said, in an appeal to the state's famously independent-minded voters who helped him win the 2000 GOP primary.
The escalating TV ad war underscores the tightness and unpredictability of the New Hampshire primary. The former Massachusetts governor until recently had a wide lead, but some recent polls, including a Globe survey published Sunday, show the two running nearly even, with Romney at 28 percent and McCain at 25 percent. Yesterday, however, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed Romney leading among likely voters in New Hampshire with 34 percent, followed by McCain with 21 percent.
Romney strategists decided this week that the US senator from Arizona has gained enough strength to potentially overtake Romney and decided to launch the ad attacking McCain's record.
David Carney, a New Hampshire political consultant who is not allied with any presidential campaign, said that Romney's strategy is risky because, even if it turns voters against McCain, it might also turn them against Romney.
"If the ad is so successful it gets people to decide not to vote for McCain, it is highly unlikely they will go to Romney," Carney said. "In a multicandidate primary race, it doesn't help the attacker."
Nonetheless, the ad is reminiscent of one of the most famous ads in the history of the New Hampshire primary, in which George H. W. Bush in 1988 attacked his rival, Senator Bob Dole, as "Senator Straddle."
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducts polls for the Globe, said it is unclear whether the Romney ad will be effective because McCain has built up his reputation as a straight talker, which Smith said many voters respect "even if they disagree with him."
Michael Levenson of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Michael Kranish can be reached at kranish@globe.com. 