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As the caucuses loom, Clinton strikes a serious tone

AMES, Iowa - Microphone in hand, Hillary Clinton nods deeply, gravely. At times, she softens her voice to almost a stage whisper, her shoulders hunched with concern. Her turquoise and canary yellow jackets have been put away in favor of more conservative black or forest green.

Racing across Iowa in the final, crucial days before tomorrow's Iowa caucuses, Clinton is pressing a case that is as much a warning of what could go wrong in America - with the wrong leader at the helm - as it is a call to make the country right again.

She is "making what I call the phone-call-in-the-middle-of-the-night argument," said Chris Lehane, a top Democratic strategist who supports Clinton but is not involved in the campaign. "When the phone call rings in the White House at 3 a.m. with some international or domestic incident, who do you want to answer?"

Over recent weeks, the Clinton campaign has shifted its main argument, at one point hitting the idea that the New York senator is the most electable Democrat, at another making a case based on her personal values, attested to by her family, friends, and grateful constituents. On the stump, Clinton flashes bright smiles and shouts her call for a "new beginning" for the American middle class, over the din of applause and whistles.

But in the final week before the caucuses, as her main rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, make rousing calls to revolutionize Washington, she has returned to the overarching theme of her campaign - that she is the most experienced candidate and the only safe bet to take on the awesome responsibilities of the job.

In a hotel ballroom in Ames yesterday, Clinton declared, "I'm not asking that you take me on a leap of faith, I'm asking you to look at the evidence and the record, because we don't have any margin for error or any time to waste."

Asked what Clinton's message would be to Iowa voters in the final days before the caucus, her state director, Teresa Vilmain, responded with only seven words: "She's ready to lead on day one."

Clinton gave more weight to the argument after former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination last week.

She brought a hush to an audience in western Iowa last week when she spoke about the tragedy and her worries about Pakistani democracy. Then, she segued to the importance of the American elections, setting the scene the next president will face when inaugurated at noon on Jan. 20, 2009.

Piled thick onto the president's desk, she said, would be a war to end in Iraq, a war "to try to come to grips with" in Afghanistan, rogue nations, and "networks of extremists across the globe who do not share our values," an economy that is "tottering," and the legacy of the Bush administration.

"These are some of the problems we know about," Clinton went on.

That sense of foreboding has brought rebukes from her opponents. Obama was clearly talking about Clinton in Mount Pleasant on Saturday when he said, "We can't afford the politics of fear." And John Edwards's deputy campaign manager, Jonathan Prince, wrote in a campaign memo that "We believe Democrats will not be fooled by efforts to play on their fears."

Perhaps in response to such criticism, Clinton toned down that part of her speech in recent days. In Ames yesterday, she left terrorism off her litany of problems, and cited the unknowable "opportunities," as well as "challenges." She also accused the Bush administration of "using fear to undermine our country's unity."

But the grave tone remained. And her husband has hit the same note even harder. Sunday night in Carlisle, Bill Clinton began his speech with this joking admonition: "I don't want you to feel any pressure, but the future of the free world is riding on you. Just chill out, don't worry about it, but we're all there hanging on the thread of your efforts."

Then his tone grew serious. "Something will happen that will not be discussed in the Iowa caucus," he said. "They didn't talk about Osama bin Laden in the 2000 campaign, nobody ever mentioned [Hurricane] Katrina - we didn't know she existed."

Far more than her chief competitors, Clinton talks policy. As her stump speech reaches its emotional crescendo, she starts shouting over the applause with popular, but decidedly unglamorous, policy prescriptions: Abolish the bewildering federal financial aid application form! Make prescription drugs affordable for seniors!

"She's done well on experience, on intelligence, on responding to uncertain times," said Julian Zelizer, a political historian at Princeton University. "But she hasn't been able to convey her enthusiasm about what's around the corner for America, and Americans often like candidates who campaign on the basis of hope and optimism."

Nichole Rinholen, a manager at Quaker Oats, remained torn between Clinton and Obama after seeing Clinton in Vinton.

"She gave me goose bumps. The strength in her voice is different from Barack. She doesn't stutter, she looks you in the eye when she says it," said Rinholen, 28, as she rocked her baby in her arms. "Barack just drives you in a different way. He gave me pride in my country again."

Marcella Bombardieri can be reached at bombardieri@globe.com

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