DES MOINES - The Republican showdown in Iowa today between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney is emerging as an early test of the importance of money in the most expensive presidential race in history, as the underfunded Huckabee threatens to derail Romney's costly and well-organized campaign.
Romney's camp is banking that its more traditional ground campaign and blast of television ads will convince Hawkeye State Republicans that the former Massachusetts governor is the more reliable, electable conservative. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and Baptist preacher, estimates he is being outspent 20 to 1 by Romney in Iowa and says it would be a miracle for him to finish even second in the GOP caucuses tonight, though the polls indicate the two are deadlocked.
With business school efficiency, Romney methodically started a year ago with voter lists purchased from the state party to line up precinct captains and build a base. With 17 full-time staff members supervising hundreds of volunteers in all 99 counties, Romney has been campaigning for a year, and has been on the airwaves since last March.
The Romney campaign said it made 22,000 phone calls just on Tuesday, trying to make sure the 50,000-plus supporters it has identified show up at tonight's caucuses. "This is all about a ground game," Doug Gross, Romney's Iowa chairman, told reporters yesterday. "And the bottom line is whoever does the best job at turning out is going to win this thing."
Huckabee, on the other hand, has fewer paid staff members and only recently hired a veteran professional political consultant to guide his operation. Relatively low on cash, he has been relying on a less traditional network of home-schooling advocates and evangelical Christians to spread the word of his candidacy. Volunteers from as far away as Flagstaff, Ariz., and Toms River, N.J., have traveled to Iowa at their own expense to cold-call voters, urging them to caucus for Huckabee.
Romney's operation "is basically a business plan. Romney has been willing to spend whatever it takes to win," said Anthony Corrado, a campaign finance specialist at Colby College in Maine.
Huckabee is relying heavily on "on-the-ground enthusiasm" and help from religious groups, Corrado said.
Campaign finance and political specialists say that cash is still critically important to competing beyond the early caucus and primary states, particularly this year, when a front-loaded primary schedule is forcing candidates to campaign in more than two dozen states by Feb. 5.
But in Iowa, where voters are more likely to make up their minds based on meeting candidates in person or watching them in debates, Huckabee is showing that a low-funded contender has a chance to succeed.
"Message is important, as well as money," said Stephen Weissman, associate director for policy at the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute. "Huckabee's message has taken him into the front ranks and has helped him to deliver further money."
While Huckabee said he has raised $5 million in recent weeks since his startling surge in polls here and in several other states, campaign finance reports show he is still far behind his rivals in fund-raising. Neither campaign would reveal its precise fund-raising take or spending in Iowa, but on Sept. 30, Romney reported raising a total of $62.8 million nationwide, compared with Huckabee's $2.3 million.
Contributions from Iowans also favor Romney. By Sept. 30, Romney had collected $143,825 from Iowans, more than any other candidate, while Huckabee ranked 12th among GOP and Democratic candidates, with $19,327.
Instead of downplaying his cash shortage, Huckabee wears it like a badge of honor. Iowa "might prove that it's not just about how much money a candidate has," Huckabee said in a recent press conference. "Wouldn't that be a refreshing thing?"
Polling suggests Huckabee may be right: He led Romney by 32 percent to 26 percent in a Des Moines Register survey published Tuesday. But other polling and voter interviews indicate that Romney's direct mail and TV spots attacking Huckabee are having an effect.
Several polls have indicated Romney catching up to - or even slightly ahead of - Huckabee in the past 10 days after Romney released a barrage of ads accusing Huckabee of raising taxes in Arkansas, issuing clemency to more than 1,000 criminals, and giving tuition assistance to children of illegal immigrants, tapping a powerful issue among Iowa Republicans. A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll released yesterday showed the two in a statistical tie, with Huckabee at 28 percent and Romney at 26 percent.
"There's a lot I like, but I have a lot of questions" about Huckabee, said Aaron Telecky, a 36-year-old pastor from Cedar Rapids. Telecky said he received a mailing from Romney raising questions about Huckabee's record on tax increases. "I sat down, and read it for 15 minutes, and I changed my mind," Telecky said.
Erik Miles, 57, said he is skeptical about Huckabee after receiving many phone calls and mailings from the Romney campaign but little from the Huckabee camp. "I'm not sure he's ready to lead the country," Miles said. "He's funny, but I don't think that carries the day."
Romney and Huckabee are running polar-opposite Iowa campaigns, demonstrating styles that reflect both the dramatic gap in their respective fund-raising and their own personal images.
Romney, with his telegenic looks and radio-ready deep voice, is running a by-the-book campaign, delivering a consistent message against taxes and "socialized" healthcare and for tough immigration laws and a strong national defense.
His public events are well-publicized and well-orchestrated from three state offices, and he makes virtually no gaffes when he takes questions from voters or reporters. Voters say they routinely get as many as four pieces of mail a week from the Romney campaign, compared with only sporadic material from Huckabee.
Romney's sprawling campaign headquarters, located in an Urbandale office building to take advantage of his strong support in the city, houses teams of volunteers, working in organized clusters, making calls to sway undecided voters or to get Romney backers to the caucuses. Neighborhood canvassing is organized by the day and hour to avoid duplication and to ensure target areas are reached.
Huckabee's campaign, meanwhile, has a randomness that mirrors his folksy, self-deprecating style but which his opponents view as amateurish. He admits mistakes on the campaign trail, incorrectly saying Pakistan was still under martial law, misstating its border location with Afghanistan, and overstating the number of illegal Pakistani immigrants in the United States.
He prepared a negative TV ad against Romney, then on Monday announced he would not run it before showing it to incredulous reporters anyway. For several days this week, he barely met with voters, instead spending his time doing on-air interviews on TV news and entertainment shows - forgoing an opportunity to talk in person with uncommitted voters, but getting free air time to compete with the $7 million Romney has spent on paid ads compared with Huckabee's $1.4 million.
At Huckabee headquarters - two unconnected floors in a downtown Des Moines storefront - an 11-year-old home-schooled boy is among the volunteers working the phones. "Governor Huckabee seems to have a good Christian basis for how he makes his decisions," said John Moore, who traveled at his own expense from Flagstaff, Ariz., with his young son, Evan, to work for Huckabee.
Huckabee's unconventional approach may charm enough voters in Iowa for him to win, political and campaign finance specialists say. And a win, they say, is critical to getting the cash necessary to compete in larger states Feb. 5, when 22 states are scheduled to vote, including California and New York.
"You used to be able to kind of pick it up as you went along" from state to state, said John Zogby, an independent pollster. But with the accelerated nomination calendar, "It's hard to patch it up on the fly, with so many states in competition all at once," he said.
Michael Levenson of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Susan Milligan can be reached at milligan@globe.com.
