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It's Huckabee, Obama

Caucus-goers pass over fund-rich, familiar figures

Email|Print| Text size + By Susan Milligan and Scott Helman
Globe Staff / January 4, 2008

DES MOINES - Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and former governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, two political sensations delivering messages of change and conciliation, captured the first victories of the 2008 presidential campaign yesterday, winning their parties' Iowa caucuses decisively after hard-fought, wide-open contests.

Obama cruised to victory amid a stunning, record turnout of first-time caucus-goers, capturing almost 38 percent of the vote in a race that drew nearly 240,000 Democrats - about twice the GOP turnout - on a bone-chilling night. Former senator John Edwards of North Carolina ran a shade ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton of New York for second place, each polling just over 29 percent.

In the GOP race, Huckabee, a Baptist minister, used his populist, folksy style to stitch together a loose coalition of evangelical Christians and conservatives to beat Mitt Romney, despite the former Massachusetts governor's huge cash advantage, superior organization, and attack-ad campaign. Huckabee won, 34 percent to 25 percent.

"Today, we have seen a new day in American politics," Huckabee told supporters in downtown Des Moines. "People really are more important than the purse; what a great lesson for America to learn."

Both Obama and Huckabee had been painted by opponents as inexperienced and too unknown to lead the nation. But despite being wooed by well-funded political veterans in both parties, Iowa's voters in the end favored the candidates whom polls indicated they simply liked better.

"We have chosen hope over fear. We have chosen unity over division and sent a powerful message that change is coming to America," Obama told a boisterous crowd of supporters.

Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, who had staked their candidacies on a strong Iowa showing, dropped out of the race after failing to break through.

The loss to Huckabee was a major blow for Romney, whose planned path to the Republican presidential nomination always began with a strong showing in Iowa. He had spent much of the past three years courting voters in Iowa, building a massive organization, and positioning himself as the electable conservative.

Though Romney remains a top-tier candidate in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, yesterday's second-place finish puts him in a perilous position in the days ahead. Senator John McCain, who won the 2000 primary in New Hampshire, is resurgent in the Granite State polls, and Romney must now face him without the momentum he sought from Iowa.

"We won the silver on one event. It doesn't mean you're not going to come back and win the gold in the final event, and that's what we're going to do," Romney said in his concession speech.

Obama's big victory is precisely what Clinton's campaign had feared, and it shattered the notion - one eagerly cultivated by her campaign - that she would be the inevitable winner of the Democratic nomination. Clinton maintains huge institutional support in New Hampshire, but recent polls suggest that Obama is pulling even there. And last night's win provides an added campaign boost.

Clinton congratulated her opponents and called the evening "a great night for Democrats" as she vowed to push ahead in her campaign. "Together, we have presented a case for change," she said, adding that she is "as ready as I can be" to take that battle to New Hampshire and beyond.

The Democratic race has long been a three-way battle among Clinton, the more experienced top-tier candidate; Obama, the newcomer to national politics with a unifying message; and Edwards, the second-place finisher in the 2004 caucuses who retained a loyal well of support in Iowa.

Turnout was key last night. Obama's campaign had long said it would bring in unprecedented numbers of new caucus-goers. It did: Almost 240,000 people participated in the Democratic caucuses, 100,000 more than took part in 2004. The Republicans turned out about 120,000. Obama racked up huge margins in urban counties containing cities such as Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

Many analysts had said Edwards needed to win Iowa to remain a strong contender, but he vowed to charge ahead last night, saying yesterday's results vindicated his message of change.

"The status quo lost and change won," a somewhat subdued-sounding Edwards told supporters afterward.

"We saw two candidates who thought that money would make them inevitable," but Iowa proved otherwise, he said.

The fierce competition for voters now rockets east to New Hampshire, where the candidates will have just five days either to capitalize on their Iowa successes or recover from their disappointments. The dynamics in the Republican contest also shift to include McCain, who was never expected to do well in Iowa but appears to be running strong in New Hampshire, where he needs to do well to remain a top contender.

All of the leading candidates will be politicking furiously in the Granite State over the weekend. Several had early-morning rallies scheduled today to greet their arriving planes. Tomorrow evening, Republicans and Democrats will gather at Saint Anselm College in Manchester for back-to-back, nationally televised 90-minute debates.

The victorious Huckabee faces a far tougher fight in New Hampshire, where there are few evangelical Christians.

But the Arkansan, pointing to polls suggesting that he is performing well in states such as South Carolina and Georgia, hopes his Iowa win will build into a national groundswell. The Iowa results set the survivors up for a series of showdowns this month, first in New Hampshire and later in Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida.

Former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, whose low-key campaign in Iowa baffled supporters who hoped he would emerge as a consensus candidate for fiscal and social conservatives, hung on to third place with most precincts reporting, while Democrat Bill Richardson, the New Mexico governor, touted his fourth-place finish.

Romney held a wide lead in Iowa polls for a good chunk of 2007. Relying on a strong ground campaign, millions of dollars in TV ads, and a network of veteran political advisers, Romney sought to convince voters that he was the more experienced and reliably conservative contender.

But Huckabee, casting himself as the genuine social conservative in a David-vs.-Goliath battle for Iowa, won by running an old-fashioned grass-roots campaign. With his conservative-populist message laced with self-deprecating humor, he won voters over with a promise to reform his party and help middle- and lower-income people raise their stations in life. Frequently pledging to be the president of "Main Street, not Wall Street or K Street," he underscored his own humble upbringing in Hope, Ark.

That message clearly resonated with GOP voters. "Tonight, it starts here in Iowa," Huckabee said.

"But it doesn't end here."

Michael Levenson of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Susan Milligan can be reached at milligan@globe.com. Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com.

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