KALAMAZOO, Mich. - One of the nation's most unpredictable state primaries has taken a dramatic turn toward chaos.
For the last 15 years, Michigan has held free-for-all primaries, where all voters were treated as independents and able to take a ballot that included both parties - allowing voters to reward candidates with bipartisan appeal or even mischievously punish those of the opposing party whom they did not like. Last fall, legislators attempted to instill some discipline by requiring voters to name their party, even though people still could choose either a Democratic or Republican ballot.
Yet the simultaneous development of a lively three-way race among Republicans and the lack of any Democratic campaigning due to a dispute over the primary calendar added greater uncertainty this year. Now, campaigns and pollsters say they are even more flummoxed than usual about who will turn out to vote, in which party they will participate, and what will motivate them to do so.
"It's such a quirky situation up there," said Ann Selzer, an Iowa-based pollster who surveys Michigan for the Detroit Free Press. "There's not been any primary comparable to this election."
The Michigan secretary of state has declined to estimate how many voters will go to the polls today, a projection the office routinely releases before the election. Campaign strategists say they have little indication how many votes will be at stake in the Republican primary.
"With this Democratic thing, we don't have the vaguest idea," said Chuck Yob, Michigan cochairman for Senator John McCain of Arizona.
But the lack of a Democratic race has clearly altered Republican strategies. McCain hastily rerouted his itinerary yesterday to visit the Detroit Auto Show, his only appearance in the dominant Detroit media market - where rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee spent most of the day - which is home to large concentrations of moderate suburban Republicans and Democrats of all stripes.
After Michigan Democrats tried to break the monopoly of Iowa and New Hampshire by scheduling an early primary date, national party leaders demanded that candidates boycott the election by not spending money or campaigning in the state. Several Democratic contenders, including Barack Obama and John Edwards, chose not to place their names on the ballot, leaving Democratic voters with only four options, including two marginal candidates and one who has dropped out of the race.
Polls indicate that Hillary Clinton's strongest competition is from "Uncommitted," a none-of-the-above option to send free-floating delegates to the Democrats' summer convention. Obama and Edwards supporters have seen a strong "Uncommitted" showing as an opportunity to deliver a potentially fatal no-confidence vote to Clinton in a large state. But the national revival of her campaign following a New Hampshire primary victory has limited the opportunity for opponents to humiliate Clinton in Michigan.
"New Hampshire was a shock to the Edwards people and derailed the plans they had for 'Uncommitted' here," said a Democratic operative familiar with labor efforts. "They thought if they could get a win out of Michigan it would get her out of the race or put her on life support."
A Free Press poll published Sunday showed Clinton winning 56 percent of Democratic-primary voters compared with 30 percent for Uncommitted.
When asked how they would vote if offered all the party's presidential candidates, a combined 36 percent picked Obama or Edwards.
This past weekend, local supporters of those two candidates increased their efforts to mobilize support for Uncommitted. Appeals have rung out from the pulpits of large black churches in Detroit; radio ads by House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers and his wife, Monica, a city councilwoman; and an e-mail newsletter from the Democratic committee of Macomb County - the home of former Democratic congressman David Bonior, now Edwards's campaign manager.
In response, Clinton supporters have picked up their efforts to generate interest in the primary. Governor Jennifer Granholm and Senator Debbie Stabenow urged voters to back Clinton at a rally on Saturday that was described as a "press conference" to elude the restriction on active campaigning. But observers wonder whether Democratic voters, lacking a full array of choices, will opt to vote instead in the Republican contest, which has dominated the airwaves.
"What will they do?" asked Selzer. "Will they turn around and ask for a Republican ballot? Or say 'I'm going home'?"
