COLUMBIA, S.C. - Their presidential aspirations at stake, Republican contenders Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson are locked in battle for a segment of voters that could determine the outcome of tomorrow's primary: conservative Christians.
Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas and an ordained Baptist minister who preached at a local church last weekend, won the Iowa caucuses by relying on a loose network of church leaders and has portrayed himself as a populist candidate who best represents conservative religious values.
But Thompson, an actor and former Tennessee senator, has aggressively portrayed Huckabee as a liberal in Christian clothing.
Thompson is seeking to win South Carolina - and keep his struggling presidential bid alive - by wooing enough Christian conservative voters who might ordinarily choose Huckabee. And the plan could have a big payoff: a McClatchy/MSNBC poll released yesterday suggested that nearly 1 in 10 likely voters are undecided, the biggest bloc of them evangelical Christians.
At a campaign stop in Orangeburg, S.C., on Wednesday night, Thompson continued his efforts to attract Christians, saying America was founded on the belief that "basic rights come from God and not from any government," with laws based "on the wisdom of the ages and the Scriptures." That brought loud applause from the crowd of about 200 supporters packed in a small atrium on the campus of Orangeburg-Calhoun Technical College.
"There are some in the Republican Party that think these are not as relevant as they used to be," he continued. "Some people think we need to go in a more moderate direction" to beat the Democrats and hold on to the White House in November. "I think that's the opposite of what we need to do," Thompson said, drawing more applause.
Yesterday, however, Huckabee was able to highlight his Christian credentials during a visit to North Greenville University, a private Baptist college whose motto is "Where Christ Makes the Difference." When asked to describe his religious "salvation experience," Huckabee said it came to him as a boy in Bible camp and led him to turn down a pickup baseball game with friends because "I'd never felt so clean in my life."
Thompson's criticisms could also have the effect of helping Senator John McCain of Arizona, who is narrowly leading Huckabee, according to the McClatchy poll and a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released yesterday. Thompson, who was third in one poll and fourth in another, endorsed McCain in 2000 but has vigorously denied he is allied with him against Huckabee.
Analysts say the South Carolina primary is a critical test for all three candidates. Huckabee hasn't finished better than third since winning in Iowa, McCain is trying to rebound from a loss in Michigan on Tuesday, and Thompson hasn't had a strong showing at the polls since he entered the race for the nomination last fall.
J. David Woodard, a Clemson University professor and a specialist on Southern politics, said that when it comes to Southern evangelicals, Huckabee and Thompson are battling over high stakes. He said recent polls indicate that 71 percent of Republicans in South Carolina attend church once a week, "and these are tested, seasoned GOP voters" who are likely to go to the polls tomorrow.
"That means on any given Sunday, more than half of all GOP voters are in church," Woodard said.
But Woodward warned that many political observers make the same mistake about Southern evangelicals that they do with African-American voters: an assumption that they vote in lockstep.
Though Huckabee can depend on his faith to draw some voters, Woodard said, "I think what people are missing is this is not a monolith" that would vote for him - or Thompson - on faith alone. "By no means can you marshal people to the polls simply by singing hymns and quoting scriptures," he said.
That hasn't kept Thompson from trying. He began the duel at last week's GOP debate in Myrtle Beach when he accused Huckabee of abandoning conservatism and "the Reagan coalition of limited government and strong national security."
Huckabee rejected the allegation.
In Orangeburg, Thompson played up his profamily credentials, appearing with his wife, Jeri, and two young children. Speaking without notes, he highlighted his endorsements from local antiabortion groups, insisted he would stick to "fundamental principles" if elected, and said his political fate is "in the hands of the Lord and the folks in South Carolina."
That was music to the ears of Jessica Ulmer, a 77-year-old Thompson supporter from the nearby town of North.
"He says that the good book is in charge of everything," Ulmer said after the rally. "I believe that's true. This country is in real trouble. We need somebody who believes in moral principles."
Jeff Sadosky, a Thompson spokesman, said Ulmer is typical of the "full-picture conservatives" Thompson seeks to attract. Many of them, he said, are evangelicals, but they also are concerned about taxes and immigration.
But, Woodward said, "Huckabee plays pretty well" to religious conservatives as well.
The difference could come down to charisma.
"The difference is [Thompson] just doesn't light up the room," Woodard said.
Ministers like Huckabee, he added, have to do it every week.
"Sometimes twice a week," Woodward said. "There's not a dropped line when he speaks. And yet he touches the heart when he speaks."
