Clinton campaign makes late S.C. push
Candidate won't cede black vote
COLUMBIA, S.C. - The dean who introduced Hillary Clinton in the chapel of a historically black college yesterday made an impassioned plea for South Carolina's African-Americans to vote for Clinton in today's primary, and "focus on our community's future rather than acting on pure emotion."
Flanking Clinton on the chapel stage were two of the nation's well known black politicians, Congressman Charles Rangel and David Dinkins, former mayor of New York. One hundred miles to the north, Bill Clinton was preparing to greet another audience.
It did not seem like a campaign that had given up on South Carolina.
The Clinton campaign has worked for weeks to lower expectations in a state where Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has been polling significantly ahead of the New York senator. And yet in the last few days, the Clinton camp has been trying hard to woo voters, especially African-Americans who have been favoring Obama, the first black candidate to make a serious bid for the party's presidential nomination.
Viewed pessimistically, the campaign's efforts could be a bid to avoid the humiliation of coming in third to John Edwards, as the New York senator did in Iowa. The latest Zogby poll put Hillary Clinton, at 25 percent, four points ahead of Edwards, at 21 percent, while Obama had 38 percent. But other recent polls show Obama with a single-digit lead, and Edwards lagging well behind.
The Clintons' last-minute outpouring of sweat could allow the candidate to come in close enough to Obama in today's primary to beat the expectations the Clintons have helped shape. That would give Clinton additional momentum going into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Or she might defy the polls and win outright, again.
"I think they are hoping for some degree of a New Hampshire surprise," said Todd Shaw, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina who is supporting Obama. In the Granite State on Jan. 8, even though she had been ahead in polls for most of the race, she dropped sharply after losing Iowa, and therefore her victory came as a surprise, and allowed her to claim the "comeback" mantle.
This week, as the first southern Democratic primary approached, Bill Clinton made 14 campaign appearances on his wife's behalf in South Carolina.
The Clinton campaign boosted its TV advertising and aired one of the most negative ads of the race this season, a radio spot that portrayed Obama as praising Ronald Reagan's policies and that many observers criticized for being misleading.
Hillary Clinton has spent more time in South Carolina in the final days than her campaign had indicated she would earlier in the week.
She worked her way across the state yesterday, focusing especially on African-Americans, who are expected to make up at least half of the electorate today. Before digging into a barbecue buffet lunch in Columbia, the capital, she tailored her stump speech to a mostly black campus crowd at nearby Benedict College. She explained how grateful she was to have Rangel and Dinkins "to witness for me," and spoke of her spiritual belief.
"Thankfully I was raised to be a praying person," she said. "Every time the church door opened we were there."
All through the fall, Hillary Clinton was leading in South Carolina polls. In mid-December, a CNN poll put her at 42 percent to Obama's 34 percent. Bill Clinton, who is popular with African-Americans, made numerous stops here last year. Her campaign has competed vigorously with Obama for the support of the state's Democratic establishment - among others, she boasts the endorsement of former Governor Richard Riley, who was education secretary in her husband's administration.
Yet Obama has surged here over the last month as voters began paying more attention to the race, and especially after his victory in Iowa suddenly made some African-Americans believe for the first time that a black man could be elected president.
As a result, even after her win in the New Hampshire primary, her campaign began to emphasize the Feb. 5 contest in 22 states over the two remaining early races, in South Carolina and Nevada. By spending much of the week in such places as Arizona, California, and New Jersey, Hillary Clinton sent the unstated message that South Carolina didn't matter to her as much as it did to Obama.
And by reminding people of the influence of African-Americans voters here, the Clinton campaign seemed to communicate that the Palmetto State is a special case with little or no bearing on the rest of the campaign.
On Wednesday, Bill Clinton told voters that "people tell me Hillary doesn't have a chance of winning here," and that Obama's lead in a heavily black electorate is "understandable because people are proud when someone who they identify with emerges for the first time."
He appeared to be right: A McClatchy-MSNBC poll released Thursday night showed that Obama had 59 percent of the support of black voters here, compared to 25 percent for Clinton.
The Obama campaign has complained about the Clintons' expectation-setting. Joe Erwin, a former state party chairman backing Obama, sent reporters a memo listing what it described as Hillary Clinton's heavy investments in advertising and manpower on the ground.
"What they are doing is trying to discount what could be a very pivotal victory for Barack Obama," Erwin said in an interview. "But the fact is they continue to spend a small fortune in South Carolina. The president has not left here since he arrived, and he has been beating on my candidate pretty hard."
The tactic may be working. Peter Fenn, a Democratic strategist who is not aligned in the primary race, said that if Clinton can stay ahead of Edwards and come within 10 points of Obama, she'll look OK.
Stacey Franklin Jones, the science dean who introduced Hillary Clinton yesterday in Columbia, said it would be a "very, very bold step" for many blacks to cast their ballot for Clinton rather than Obama. But "as a citizen, a woman, an African-American, a scientist, a chocoholic, a size 9 wide and any other label you choose to use," she deeply believed in Clinton's "vision and proven record."
After the event, Patricia Harris said she was leaning toward voting for Hillary Clinton, having been impressed by what she saw as the senator's sincerity.
Harris, 46, who works in financial aid at the college, would like to see African-American issues higher on the national agenda, but added, "If you didn't put a picture with her, you'd think she's African-American. She's talking our language."
Hillary Clinton is expected to continue stumping while polls are open today. But she's not putting all her eggs in this basket. She'll fly tonight to a rally in Nashville.
Marcella Bombardieri can be reached at bombardieri@globe.com. 