Workers at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department scanned and tabulated absentee ballots yesterday.
(Wilfredo Lee/Associated press)
ORLANDO, Fla. - The winner of today's Republican presidential primary in Florida will walk away with 57 delegates and momentum heading into the Feb. 5 megacontest. The value of victory in the Democratic primary today will be in the eyes of the beholder and subject to all sorts of spin.
On paper, the Democratic primary is a glorified straw poll or beauty contest, with no delegates at stake and all the candidates forswearing an active campaign in Orlando. But with well over a million Democrats likely to cast ballots in a state that has already decided one recent presidential election, the results may be hard to ignore.
The Democrats have shunned the Sunshine State since last year when the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of delegates to the convention in Denver in August. That was punishment for the state Legislature moving up the primaries of both parties in violation of party-approved calendars designed to protect the early-voting status of other select states. The Republican National Committee penalty was less severe - half the delegates were stripped. The parties took similar actions against Michigan, which also jumped into the early window. In both scofflaw states, Republican candidates campaigned vigorously - and expensively - and Democratic candidates boycotted.
"The voters are coming out and their preferences are going to be heard," said Judithanne McLauchlan, a professor of political science at University of South Florida. The absence of candidates stumping or advertising in Orlando doesn't mean there is no Democratic campaign occurring. All the candidates have volunteers working hard on their behalf, she said. "There's been a lot of activity on the ground and a ton in the air; on television, radio, and in the newspapers, it dominates the news," she said.
Clinton has led Obama by wide margins in every recent poll in Florida, but virtually all the sampling occurred before Obama's resounding victory in South Carolina Saturday. Obama's campaign has accused Clinton of injecting herself into the Florida campaign with announcements that she will work to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations at the summer convention and that she will be in Florida tonight after polls close. Clinton's campaign has accused Obama of violating the boycott pledge agreed to by all candidates when his campaign bought national cable advertising that appears in Florida.
The DNC stripped Florida of 210 delegates and Michigan of 156, the vast majority of which would have been allocated based on the primary results. Unlike Michigan, where Obama and John Edwards removed their names from the ballot and Clinton defeated "uncommitted," in Florida all the Democratic candidates' names are on today's ballot.
Under Florida's early-voting and no-excuse-needed absentee voting, turnout has been very heavy, with about one million of Florida's 10.2 million voters casting ballots before primary day. Usually, Republicans see heavier turnout in early voting, but this year almost as many Democrats as Republicans have cast early ballots. Democrats hold a slight registration advantage in Florida - 4.1 million to 3.8 million.
Both primaries are closed, meaning only party members may cast ballots in the presidential preference primary, but a statewide ballot question that would amend the Florida constitution and lower property taxes is clearly a factor in the high turnout. Of the more than 2.2 million Florida voters not enrolled in either major party and ineligible to vote in the presidential contests, more than 100,000 have voted early on the ballot question.
The Democratic Party of Florida believes that after one of the candidates locks up the nomination, the Florida delegation will be seated when the party convenes in Denver in late August.
"We're fully confident our delegation is going to be seated through the proper channels," said Mark Bubriski, communications director for the state party. "We expect that the nominee will seat the delegates."
A spokesman for the national party said that any speculation about resolving the issue is premature. "Any issues around the seating of delegates will be resolved by the Convention Credentials Committee. The full committee has yet to be appointed and will not meet until later this summer," said DNC spokesman Damien LaVera.
Under party rules, the credentials committee will have 186 members - 25 appointed by national party chairman Howard Dean and the rest allocated based on the breakdown of delegates per state won by the candidates in each primary or caucus.
The optimism of Florida Democrats is based on the belief that the nominee will be known well in advance of the convention. But in the event of a continued close fight between Clinton and Obama with the potential of a convention fight, the issue of seating big blocs of delegates from two large battleground states could itself become a heated dispute.
© Copyright 2008 Globe Newspaper Company.
