Hopefuls mine rich supply of delegates

California holds biggest prize of Super Tuesday

Bill Clinton campaigned for Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton at Santa Ana College in California. A new poll suggests that Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a statistical dead heat with California voters. (David McNew/Getty Images)

LOS ANGELES - Republican presidential candidates are making an 11th-hour effort to woo voters in this delegate-rich state, while Democrats are deluging the airwaves with ads to galvanize support in Super Tuesday's biggest prize.

But for all the millions of dollars and expensive travel spent by contenders in both parties, both Democrats and the two leading Republicans are likely to end up with fairly even numbers of delegates from the Golden State, political specialists say: The state's complicated set of primary rules makes it difficult for any candidate to sweep the nation's most populous state in today's voting.

"It's probably going to divide pretty evenly between [Barack] Obama and [Hillary] Clinton," since the rules assigning delegates in the Democratic primary make it extremely difficult for either the Illinois Senator or his New York colleague to take a majority of delegates in each congressional district, said Bill Carrick, a Democratic consultant not associated with either campaign.

And on the Republican side, where Mitt Romney and John McCain are engaged in a tight battle for delegates, "I expect it to be a 51-49 kind of thing. We don't expect it to be a big difference," said Tom Del Beccaro, vice chairman of the California Republican party. "It will be a close race in California, not a knock-out blow."

The last-minute campaigning won't even matter to the 20 percent or more of Californians who have already made their choices in early voting, said Mark DiCamillo, director of The Field Poll, a prominent California polling operation. Those voters - who started sending in ballots weeks ago - most likely went for early favorites, Clinton and Romney, and could thwart the momentum Obama and McCain have enjoyed recently, he said.

The fight between McCain and Romney pits the hard-core conservatives, who are more likely to favor Romney, against the more moderate GOP voters.

Buoyed by a recent poll showing the race very tight in California, Romney added a stop in Long Beach to his frenzied, cross-country campaigning the day before Super Tuesday.

"If I win California, that means you're going to have a conservative in the White House," Romney said. "The entire nation is watching California and what they're going to do." McCain was set to make an afternoon appearance today in San Diego.

But statewide polls could mean little to the GOP contenders tomorrow, since each congressional district - regardless of the number of Republicans who vote there - gets three delegates to award to a Republican candidate.

"If you pull 100,000 votes in Orange County, you get three delegates," said GOP consultant Dan Schnur, referring to one of the state's most conservative counties. But "if you go to Berkeley and you take three Republicans out to dinner, you get three delegates" in the heavily liberal region, he said.

Romney also faces a spoiler by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who could split the conservative vote with Romney and give McCain a plurality in some areas, political analysts say.

Rob Stutzman, a Romney operative in California, noted that conservatives have historically driven the GOP primaries here, which could benefit Romney. Huckabee "is hurting us, but he's not killing us," Stutzman said.

On the Democratic side, Obama and Clinton both have solid bases of support: The New York senator leads among Hispanics - who are about a fourth of the Democratic electorate - as well as among women, who represent 58 percent of the Democratic primary voters. Obama leads among college-educated Democrats, independents, and youth. Independents can vote in the Democratic primary but not the GOP primary, meaning Obama does not risk losing independents to McCain, who also attracts that voter group, said Democratic consultant Chris Lehane.

Obama has been gaining momentum against Clinton in the past week and on Sunday scored an unexpected endorsement from Maria Shriver, wife of the GOP governor and McCain supporter, Arnold Schwarzenegger. The Obama camp hopes Shriver's backing will help peel away the female vote from Clinton.

But the Democratic Party rules make it extremely difficult to gain a big majority of delegates here. Districts are apportioned between three and six based on Democratic registration and turnout in the past two presidential elections, Carrick said.

In districts with an even number of delegates, a candidate would have to win a stunning two-thirds of the vote to be awarded a majority of delegates - a tough task for either candidate.

The winners in both parties will get bragging rights, and perhaps the perception of victory to give them momentum for the next series of primaries, Del Beccaro said.

"People still like to vote for a winner, and perceived momentum can be as important as actual momentum," he said.