In the next round, Romney needs some big wins
WASHINGTON - If Mitt Romney hopes to beat John McCain for the Republican presidential nomination, he need some wins by overwhelming margins because delegates are awarded in upcoming contests on a more proportional basis, analysts said yesterday. He would also probably need Mike Huckabee, who has drawn heavily among evangelical voters, to drop out of the contest.
Many of the Republican contests so far have awarded delegates on a winner-take-all basis. But after Super Tuesday, many states award delegates proportionally, so a win even in a big state like Texas might not provide Romney with substantially more delegates than the loser.
The math would become as important as the politics. In Texas, for example, if Romney were to win with 50 percent of the vote, he would get all the delegates. But if he got less than 50 percent, a good possibility in a three-man race, the delegates would be awarded on a proportional basis. And anyone who won less than 20 percent of the vote in Texas would not get any delegates.
Romney, speaking yesterday in West Virginia, said there are "a very large number of scenarios" that could determine whether he could collect enough delegates to win the nomination.
"The implications for me could change dramatically," Romney said. "One would be, well what is Governor Huckabee going to do? That might change things. What's our fund-raising look like, and what's John McCain's fund-raising look like? And what are we hearing from leaders in the party, conservative world? All those things would probably figure into my decision."
Virginia's primary next week, worth 63 delegates, is one of the few remaining winner-take-all states in the Republican race, which analysts said might prove a last opportunity for Romney to get back into the race.
"Romney would have to change the fundamentals of the race" by convincing Republicans that McCain is not conservative enough to be the nominee, said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, of the Rothenberg Political Report. "You can't afford to trade baskets in the final month. You have to change the game."
Moreover, Romney can't count on a burst of support from "super delegates." There are only 168 Republican National Committee at-large delegates - three per state and territory - and many of those would be expected to vote in the same proportion as the voters they represent.
The Democratic Party allows members of Congress and other high officials to vote however they want as "super delegates" at the convention. There are 796.
The next major primaries are the Feb. 12 contests in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Virginia and the District of Columbia primary, with 18 delegates, are winner-take-all; Maryland awards three delegates to the winner of each congressional district and the rest of its 37 delegates to the state's overall winner.
After that, the big contests are on March 4, when voting takes place in Ohio (88 delegates), Texas (140), Rhode Island (20), and Vermont (17). Ohio awards most of its delegates to the winner of each of the state's congressional districts; Rhode Island's will be divided up in proportion to the statewide vote; Vermont is winner-take-all.
The contests in all four states would probably be hard-fought. Romney would hope for an edge in the two New England states, but McCain would surely contest them, just as he fought for votes in Massachusetts and Connecticut yesterday. Romney won Massachusetts, but McCain took Connecticut. The big prizes of Ohio and Texas could be decisive if the nomination is still at stake.
Mississippi votes March 11, with 39 delegates, and Pennsylvania, with 74, on April 22. Both use proportional representation.
Michael Levenson of the Globe staff contributed to this report. 