Delegate battle resumes for Clinton, Obama
Four states, Virgin Islands are next on tap
WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will compete in four states and the US Virgin Islands this weekend, the first Democratic votes after Tuesday's split decision nationwide and the start of a monthlong scramble for delegates that will culminate in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4.
Nearly 200 delegates will be awarded this weekend, the bulk of them under a party-controlled caucus system that has been historically ignored by candidates but which Obama has worked to exploit this year, winning seven out of the nine caucuses already contested. Caucus rules typically require participants to attend meetings and participate in an often drawn-out process, which strategists say works to the advantage of candidates who can assemble networks of unusually committed supporters, as Obama has done.
"We would not be in as rigorous a competition if it were a primary vote, because you can reach people through advertising," said Ron Sims, a Clinton supporter and executive of King County in Washington, which will allocate 78 delegates today based on caucus results.
The Obama campaign has "outworked" the Clinton campaign in organizing voters in caucus states, said Gordon Fischer, a former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party now supporting Obama. "There has been a concerted effort on Obama's part to work on those states and a concerted effort by the Clinton campaign to cede those states, or at least not devote the resources," he said.
Today, Democrats in Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington will vote, with the last two - along with Maine tomorrow - doing so by caucus. The US Virgin Islands will select delegates in a hybrid of the two voting models: a secret-ballot election administered by the Democratic Party.
Obama's campaign was launched with a caucus win in Iowa credited to his organizational prowess there, and has dominated in similar contests since, including six victories - all in Western or Midwestern states - this week. Tuesday's vote in New Mexico, under a hybrid system similar to the Virgin Islands, remains too close to call, pending a full tally of provisional ballots. Even in Nevada, where Clinton carried the most votes, Obama is expected to emerge ahead in the delegate count.
Obama has not only committed staff and resources to organize in caucus states, but his entreaties to supporters everywhere to join "this movement" have helped generate the loyalty necessary for caucus turnout.
"It's all grass-roots organization in a caucus state - getting activists fired up and also getting new people into the process," said Fischer. "Having a 'movement' rather than a more traditional campaign really does make a difference in a caucus state."
Obama's overwhelming margins in some of them - he carried Minnesota by 34 points, Alaska by 49, and Idaho by 62 - have been a source of additional delegates, due to the often arcane methods by which they are proportionally allocated.
Obama has dispatched organizers who were involved in his Iowa victory to other caucus states. One of his Iowa tacticians, Jackie Norris, was responsible for his Colorado operations; last week, Obama won the state by more than 30 points.
"I don't recall any caucus other than Iowa that has been looked at as important before," said Barbara Norrander, a political scientist at the University of Arizona who specializes in the presidential nominating process. "The candidates usually don't pay attention to the caucuses, and as a result caucuses have been more sparsely attended and don't get the same news coverage as primaries."
Many of Obama's wins have come in states without a record of competitive caucuses or an established Democratic-party infrastructure, vexing pollsters and strategists seeking to project turnout. In Idaho, Obama recently drew three times as many attendees to a Boise rally as participated in the entire statewide caucus four years ago.
"I think you go where the votes are," said Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's campaign in 2000 and is unaligned this year. "Every state has been magnified by the fact that we're in a deadlocked election."
The one major noncaucus vote this weekend will take place in Louisiana - the state's first national vote since Hurricane Katrina, which displaced residents from the New Orleans area. Since results are tabulated by congressional district, population shifts could influence the delegate outcome.
"There will be some more people living in the Sixth C.D. versus the Second," said Brazile, a Louisiana native, referring to districts around Baton Rouge and New Orleans, respectively. "We don't know where the turnout will come from, but they're still in the state. That could spell a difference in the results."
Republicans in Louisiana will also vote there tomorrow, in addition to caucuses in Washington and Kansas. Neither Arizona Senator John McCain nor former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has concentrated on developing organizations in either state. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who like Obama made caucus states a priority and carried all but one this week, dropped out of the race on Tuesday.
In Washington, the nation's largest state to vote by caucus, the Democratic establishment is split. Governor Chris Gregoire yesterday endorsed Obama, while Representative Norman D. Dicks, a longtime, conservative legislator who represents a working-class district on the Olympic Peninsula, came out for Clinton. She has long had the support of the state's two senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. Clinton campaigned with them yesterday, visiting Tacoma in addition to Spokane, in the eastern part of the state; Obama visited only Seattle.
"In a less populated area, that can make a difference," Sims said. 