Clinton must contend with task of proving electability

Obama tackled same challenge 2 months ago

Hillary Clinton spoke at the headquarters of the National Council of Negro Women yesterday in Washington. (Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)

WASHINGTON - Facing the possibility of a 10-race losing streak going into next month's key primaries, Senator Hillary Clinton has been forced to make the same fundamental case to the nation's remaining Democratic voters that rival Barack Obama struggled to convey just two months ago: that she is electable and that momentum doesn't decide presidential nominations.

The New York lawmaker is expected by both campaigns to lose all three contests in today's "Potomac Primary," with Obama favored in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia, though Clinton hopes to pull off a surprising showing in Virginia. Next week's contests in Hawaii - where the Illinois senator lived as a child - and in Wisconsin are also uphill races for Clinton. Losses there, combined with this past weekend's sweep of five contests, would give Obama a dramatic advantage in momentum.

The Clinton campaign, which early on hoped that pure momentum would catapult her to the nomination, is now dismissing win-loss trends in favor of a pure numbers strategy: win the big March 4 states of Ohio and Texas, line up more superdelegate votes, and lobby to get the disputed delegates from Michigan and Florida (she won both states) seated at the Democratic National Convention.

But a string of losses makes Clinton look weaker, even though the current delegate count is fairly even, political strategists say.

"I think the funnel is getting smaller here. There is still a lot of time out there, but the question is, 'Is time on their side?' " said Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant not affiliated with any candidate. "If you're not winning races, it's a hard argument to make."

The Clinton campaign is now looking ahead to April and beyond, insisting that voters in later-voting states will not be influenced by what is shaping up as a month with few or no victories.

"We expected this would be a very difficult period for us," said Clinton senior adviser Mark Penn. "We've continually gone from a situation where it looks like Obama is quite strong and momentum is carrying the day," only to have Clinton come back and win, as she did in the New Hampshire primary, Penn said in a conference call with reporters.

"We believe that's what will happen again in this race," he added.

Clinton shook up her campaign staff on Sunday following a series of weekend losses, replacing Patti Solis Doyle with longtime Clinton friend Maggie Williams as campaign manager. But Clinton aides said the senator will not change her basic campaign message as she heads into a long stretch of campaigning before the contests in Ohio and Texas, then into the next battleground in Pennsylvania on April 22.

"This will be a better month for Senator Obama than it is for us. We believe that next month will be a better month for us than for him," said Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson. Clinton has consistently won more support than Obama among working-class voters and Latinos, strengths her campaign believes can help her in Ohio and Texas, respectively. Clinton will emphasize her economic proposals, including her plan to provide relief to people who lost their homes in the subprime mortgage crisis, as she campaigns in Ohio and Pennsylvania, adviser Doug Hattaway said.

"She does best among people who are struggling, who need a new president and not just want a new president," said Representative James McGovern, a Worcester Democrat who is supporting Clinton.

Clinton is also casting herself as the strongest candidate against Senator John McCain of Arizona, who appears poised to win the GOP nomination.

Republicans are likely to use national security as an issue against the eventual Democratic nominee, Penn said, arguing that "strong and wrong" has bested "right and weak" in previous elections.

Despite the Clinton campaign's determination and new, longer-term strategy to win the nomination, she still faces a tough battle as she enters a do-or-die series of contests in March and April.

With a heavy focus on winning early states, the Clinton campaign failed to do the grass-roots organizing needed to win states with caucuses, political analysts say. Obama, who invested heavily in those states, has won all but one of the caucuses.

In Ohio, Clinton has a natural advantage among working-class voters, especially displaced automobile industry workers, said Michael McTeague, a former history professor and the acting interim dean of Ohio University-Eastern.

But Obama is likely to do well among black voters in the cities, giving him a chance for a win there, he said.

And Obama's momentum from today's primaries could hurt Clinton, McTeague said. "If you look at the Potomac side, it doesn't help her going into Ohio," he said.

Susan Milligan can be reached at s_milligan@globe.com.