Potomac states fit Obama profile

Blacks, upper-income liberals leaning his way

Barack Obama spoke at a rally in Baltimore. Primaries will be held today in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

RICHMOND - When Virginians go to the polls today, Barack Obama is counting on overwhelming support in places such as Church Hill, the historic center of Richmond's black community, with its multicolored row houses.

He is also counting on a strong turnout in places such as Alexandria, George Washington's historic hometown of redbrick mansions, now a largely white enclave of lawyers and venture capitalists.

Obama describes his candidacy as attracting people of all races and backgrounds, but his recent string of successes has been powered by growing support among two groups - blacks and upper-income liberals, especially men. Those constituencies, building on his early backing from groups such as young voters and people in rural communities, have put Obama in a good position to overtake Hillary Clinton today in total delegates, according to analysts.

Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia, voting today in the so-called Potomac Primary, fit the profile of states Obama has been winning. A victory in Washington, D.C., with a large majority of black voters, is considered a foregone conclusion. But Virginia, where blacks account for 27 percent of the Democratic electorate and self-identified liberals are 34 percent, is also likely to be fertile ground for Obama. And Maryland, with 39 percent blacks and 32 percent liberals, should be as well, according to analysts.

It was not always so clear that Obama would dominate these disparate blocs of liberal whites and often socially conservative blacks: Until the South Carolina primary in late January, blacks favored Obama by about 60 percent or less in polls. Now, according to a Virginia poll of likely Democratic primary voters by the Richmond Times-Dispatch released Sunday, he swamps Clinton by 81 percent to 9 percent among blacks. Likewise, upscale white liberals have been increasingly leaning toward Obama, especially as he has increased his antiwar rhetoric in recent weeks.

The Times-Dispatch noted that it adds up to consistent strength for Obama in the "urban-suburban crescent that spans from outside Washington to Virginia Beach and dominates the state's politics."

"In terms of liberals, many people feel he's been clearer about extricating the US from the war against Iraq," said University of New Hampshire historian Ellen Fitzpatrick. "Another factor is that Bill Clinton, and Hillary by extension, really was elected as a New Democrat, a more moderate Democrat than many of the so-called limousine liberals favored. Many people who were dissatisfied with the centrist, moderate positions the Clintons carried out are gravitating to Obama."

As she has shown in other states, Clinton tends to be stronger among white Democrats of both genders in middle- and lower-income areas of Virginia. But there may not be enough of those voters in Virginia or Maryland to offset Obama's advantages among other groups.

Andrew Kohut, director of the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, said Obama's strength among upscale liberals has been something of a surprise to him. Bill and Hillary Clinton are part of that demographic, and such voters have supported them in the past. But they are drawn to Obama for many reasons, including, for some, the promise of racial reconciliation.

"These are the most ardent Democrats and the most socially liberal Democrats," Kohut said, noting that this demographic was drawn to Howard Dean in 2004 because he made the most forthright presentation of liberal views. "I think there may be a desire on the part of these people for a new candidate, one who is charismatic and exciting."

But if Clinton is to make inroads among white liberals, Kohut said, she will have to build on her strength among white women. Upper-income white women have been "cross-pressured" between their affinity for Clinton as a woman candidate and the appeal of Obama's more forthright liberalism, Kohut said.

On the streets of Alexandria yesterday, such voters seemed to be leaning toward Obama. Helen Morris, 42, a stay-at-home mother who used to work in education policy, said she had planned to vote for Clinton but is now supporting Obama.

"I think that we need fresh, thoughtful, high-quality minds in the White House," she said. "I think we need something totally different from what's there now."

She likes Clinton, she said, but is "worried about her baggage," referring to controversies from when she was first lady.

Meanwhile, Obama stands poised to draw overwhelming support from black voters, whose sense of pride at a chance to elect the first black president is an increasing factor in his rise. Before Obama's victory in the Iowa caucuses, national polls showed a majority of blacks did not believe that the nation would elect a black president. A growing realization that Obama could win has fueled an explosion of support for Obama among blacks, according to Kohut and Fitzpatrick.

Until recently, the Clinton campaign had hoped to peel off at least a third of the black vote in some states, based on longstanding ties between the Clintons and black voters and leaders, many of whom had endorsed Clinton over Obama. But interviews with black voters in recent days suggest that their bond with Obama is only growing stronger.

"Here we have a qualified African-American who can serve as president of the United States," said Melvin Martin, a teacher from Lynchburg, Va., as he stood in line to hear Obama speak in Richmond. "As an African-American, for me not to support him, I'd be stabbing my own self in the back."

Such enthusiasm was also visible in Maryland, where Barbara Jackson, 57, brought her children and grandchildren to hear Obama speak at the University of Maryland yesterday, and to "see history in the making during Black History Month."

"Not since John F. Kennedy have I felt the charisma and excitement about a candidate," said Jackson. "We need someone to unite us and do away with everything - the race problem, the economic and class problems. I think he is the only one who can unify this country."

Globe correspondent Matt Negrin contributed to this report.