Because Barack Obama has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the delegate count, the fate of 366 disallowed delegates from Florida and Michigan could be critical to the dwindling number of scenarios for Clinton to win the nomination this summer.
There's lots of chatter but no firm plan to resolve the Democrats' standoff over the states whose delegations would constitute about one-12th of the convention in Denver. At this point, the outcast delegates exist only on paper, and in the calculations of Hillary Clinton's campaign brain trust, which has been clamoring to have them seated when the party convenes late in August to nominate its presidential candidate.
After the national party stripped both states of delegates because they jumped ahead in the primary calendar - in violation of party rules - candidates boycotted both contests.
Even so, in Florida, Clinton would have earned 105 pledged delegates, 38 more than Obama's 67. In Michigan, where she was the only candidate to keep her name on the ballot, the state party has allotted her 73 delegates, 18 more than a bloc of 55 "uncommitted."
Obama's staff has dismissed the Clinton campaign's arguments as self-serving and hypocritical, and there were sparks of tension this week when leading fund-raisers in Florida for each candidate clashed over the issue, the Miami Herald reported.
Chris Korge, cochairman of Clinton's national fund-raising committee, sent out an e-mail alleging that "Sen. Obama writes us off as irrelevant and [Democratic National Committee chairman] Howard Dean tries to avoid the issue." Kirk Wagar, Obama's Florida finance chairman, called Korge's remarks "disingenuous" and "craven."
"Beat us on the field you agreed to and stop whining," Wagar said.
Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Convention, said the disputed delegates from the Florida and Michigan primaries shouldn't decide who wins the party's presidential nomination. "I don't think that any states that operated outside the rules of the party can be dispositive of who the nominee is," Pelosi said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital with Al Hunt."
Unless there's a change or a compromise, the Florida and Michigan delegates - along with three US senators, 15 members of Congress, and a governor serving as "superdelegates" - will be watching the convention on television. When the Democratic National Committee punished both states, their superdelegates were also excluded.
There's been talk of do-over contests or some other compromise, but to date it's just back-channel discussion. National party officials appear willing to let the nominating process play out through more states to determine whether a candidate will emerge with a large enough delegate lead to render the Florida and Michigan issue moot.
"There's probably a sentiment to see a little bit more happen and clarify how these states would play in the process," said James Roosevelt Jr. of Massachusetts, cochairman of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which penalized the two states. He will serve as cochairman of the convention's Credentials Committee, which could take up the matter. "It will be a lot less controversial if the outcome is beginning to become clear."
"There are two options at this point, and they're the same options that have been there from the beginning," said Stacie Paxton, press secretary for the Democratic National Committee. "The states can run an alternative party-run process [such as a caucus], which they could do right away, but I don't think they want to do. Or they can appeal to the convention Credentials Committee."
Dean, who had suggested state caucuses as a solution, was not available for an interview, Paxton said.
Citing the expense and the potential backlash from voters in those states in November, party leaders in Florida and Michigan have rejected the idea of conducting another contest to resolve the dispute. Referring to it as "the coming train wreck," Senator Bill Nelson of Florida, a Clinton supporter, said, "You can't undo an election where 1.7 million Florida Democrats have voted in a secret ballot and replace it with a caucus that maybe 50,000 people would show up for."
Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, who has not endorsed a candidate, echoed that opinion. "I don't see a practical way to hold a caucus in Michigan," he said. "Given that 600,000 Michigan voters participated in a primary that was held in accordance with state law, it seems to me it would not be practical or fair to throw out the results of that election."
Under national party rules, makeup contests would have to be held by June 10 for the results to supersede the earlier primaries.
The Republican Party also sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their primaries, but only took away half their delegates. And in contrast to the Democratic boycotts, there were vigorous GOP campaigns in both states.
Compared with other states in which the Democratic turnout far exceeded Republican, the Democratic turnout in both Michigan and Florida was lighter, with 590,000 Democrats voting in Michigan, compared with 868,000 Republicans. In Florida, 1.7 million Democrats cast ballots, compared with 1.9 million Republicans.
Ultimately, the matter could fall to the Credentials Committee, which, with 186 members, is larger than many state legislatures but does not have any authority until late June, 60 days before the opening of the convention. Dean appointed 25 members in mid-January before the delegate muddle emerged.
The other 161 members will be apportioned based on the outcomes of the caucuses and primaries in all the states. So, if Obama maintains his lead, he would control a majority of those additional members.
Among those already appointed by Dean, at least six donated to Clinton last year and five gave to Obama, according to a search of the database of the Center for Responsive Politics.
If the issue goes to the Credentials Committee, its report would be the first order of convention business. "If no one has a clear path to the nomination, then of course this could be significant," said Alice Germond, who, as the party's national secretary, certifies individual delegates for credentials.
"But we're all hopeful that one way or another it will be resolved without having our first vote at the convention be a test vote or a vote that in any way appears to show Democrats in disarray."
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