AUSTIN, Texas - Barack Obama stood on a stage under smoky blue lights, the pink granite dome of the Texas capitol looming behind him, amid memorials to Texas rangers, Alamo martyrs, and even heroic Confederates.
He looked out at streets packed with thousands of young people in Texas Longhorns sweatshirts, some carrying small children, and car after car of vendors with Obama memorabilia piled on their hoods, and delivered his familiar lines with a Lone Star flair: "John McCain has tethered himself - or, I'm in Texas - he's lassoed himself to George Bush's policies."
In Texas, where size matters, Obama is mounting what may be the most elaborate primary campaign in any state in history: His ads are ubiquitous on radio and television, his famed online operation is bringing together people in towns way off the normal campaign trail, and his rallies - in dramatic settings, showcasing the rampant enthusiasm of his youthful supporters - are advertisements in themselves, for the pure momentum of his candidacy.
Now, with two days until the voting, Obama has been so successful at building the appearance of momentum that he has reversed the conventional wisdom: What was once considered fertile ground for Hillary Clinton is now assumed to be Obama country. A win in Texas could be Obama's knockout blow - but a loss, amid such heightened expectations, may sting a little more than was assumed a few weeks ago.
"Obama is running a movement campaign, sweeping new people in," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University. "She's running a traditional campaign of appealing to Democratic constituencies."
"All is not right in Clintonland," added Bruce Buchanan, political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin.
Jillson and Buchanan are among the few analysts who understand the state's unusual trail mix of voting blocs, from blacks in Houston and Dallas to recent Hispanic immigrants in South Texas to more assimilated urban Hispanics to the remaining white liberals who still revere Lyndon Johnson. And in a further challenge to any prognosticators, Texas election rules permit those who registered as Republicans in the past to take Democratic ballots on Tuesday.
Buchanan and Jillson, like many colleagues, believe that Obama's momentum is real, and that Clinton is now the underdog. But there are also some signs that Obama's success in drawing crowds and dominating the media buzz may have obscured some of Clinton's advantages - among the state's Democratic establishment, and especially among less assimilated Hispanics in the southern part of the state.
In Latino-dominated San Antonio, just 80 miles from the Obama stronghold of Austin, Hispanic voters almost uniformly professed to be backing Clinton.
"She's a good person - she's going to try to help the Hispanic people," said Roberto Garcia, who was visiting the Alamo with his family from Brownsville, along the Mexican border.
San Antonio is one place where Bill Clinton is a huge asset to his wife, and where former mayor and Clinton Cabinet member Henry Cisneros is starring in TV spots asking people to vote for "our friend Hillary."
"The Hispanic vote here has always been in favor of Clinton," explained Ernesto Malacara, 70, who is a manager at the city's historic Menger Hotel, where Teddy Roosevelt recruited his Rough Riders. "It was a town he more or less adopted."
Outside the Menger restaurant is a picture from June 1992 of a chubby Bill Clinton slurping ice cream. "Mango ice cream at the Menger Hotel is one of the great treasures in American life," reads the quote from Clinton. The hotel shipped mango ice cream to Washington for Clinton's inauguration.
"I'll support Hillary," said Lila Maldonado, 33, who works at La Tienda, a souvenir shop. "I liked when her husband was president, and she has the same values."
Hispanics will be a significant part of Tuesday's electorate - as much as 35 percent - and Clinton must do well enough among them to offset Obama's advantage among blacks. Blacks are only about 10 percent of Texas' population but will be about a quarter of the Democratic primary electorate - and Obama is expected to win 80 percent to 90 percent of their votes, based on his performance in other states. Thus, Clinton must win Hispanics by a 2-1 margin to stay even among those sectors.
Under the state's complicated voting rules, heavily black districts tend to control more delegates, because they've been more consistently Democratic in the past, suggesting that Obama could lose the primary and still reap more delegates than Clinton. But his campaign isn't thinking that way.
"We want to be in every community," said Buffy Wicks, Obama's deputy field director. "I can't emphasize this enough. We're fighting for every vote."
The Obama campaign's state headquarters in Austin is decorated with posters of Obama's face tinted in striking contrasts, similar to an Andy Warhol portrait. It's a striking emblem for a campaign that seems to draw inspiration from the charismatic politics of the '60s, when voters felt strong personal identification with the candidate.
In recent weeks, as Clinton has attacked Obama for what she contends is his lack of substance, he has held a series of "roundtable" discussions with voters, and attended more private meetings with voters and interest groups. But the small-group settings are often followed by rallies in venues chosen to attract the biggest possible crowds.
Even in his foray into Clinton's South Texas stronghold, Obama opted for a university setting, drawing thousands to the central lawn of the University of Texas-Pan American in Edinburg.
The huge crowds validate the idea that Obama is on a roll, and usually generate enthusiastic coverage in the local media. Obama's Feb. 23 rally in front of the Texas capitol prompted The Austin American-Statesman to run a banner headline "Austin embraces Obama anew," with photo of a delirious crowd vying to touch Obama covering the top half of the front page.
The excitement reverberates in the grass roots; the campaign's cutting-edge software encourages volunteers to stage meetings and get-out-the-vote parties in their own communities.
"People are moved by the senator, but people are also moved by being part of a community within the larger community," said Wicks. "People are hungry for a sense of community and that's what people are finding here."
In the week since that rally, Obama has gained 5 to 10 percentage points in the polls, taking him from slight underdog to narrow favorite. But with so many people now expecting a victory - from his supporters to the media - even a close win by Clinton might be enough to change the momentum.
Buchanan, for his part, noted that Clinton is starting to correct some earlier mistakes: She is campaigning more outside South Texas and running more TV ads to counter Obama's advantage, while her spokesman, Howard Wolfson, promises a sweeping get-out-the-vote effort.
Still, most people feel Obama has the superior organization, and they expect him to prevail. And meeting those big expectations may prove harder than getting out his voters.
"Most of the indicators are trending Obama - polls, the drift of the superdelegates, early-voting turnout numbers," said Buchanan. "I believe the popular vote might still be close, but he has the advantage right now."
