Obama rolls in Miss. election

Democratic rivals sparring on whose wins mean more

Senator Barack Obama notched another victory over Senator Hillary Clinton in yesterday's Mississippi Democratic primary, further demonstrating his appeal in the Deep South but adding fuel to Clinton's argument that his success in the nomination race is built tenuously on states where Democrats face dim prospects in November.

Obama, in one of the most racially polarized contests yet, was handily defeating Clinton 60 percent to 37 percent with 99 percent of the precincts reporting last night, picking up most of the 33 delegates at stake and expanding his overall delegate lead of more than 100. Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, campaigned vigorously in Mississippi, but Obama's win was widely expected.

Tellingly, neither candidate was anywhere near Mississippi yesterday while voters went to the polls. Both were campaigning in Pennsylvania, whose April 22 primary is the next big prize and where recent polls have shown Clinton leading by between 4 to 19 percentage points. They were also arguing about controversial remarks by Geraldine Ferraro, the 1984 vice presidential nominee and current Clinton fund-raiser, that suggested Obama is a serious presidential contender because he is black.

Obama's win in Mississippi, together with his 24-percentage-point victory in Wyoming's caucuses on Saturday, are his latest triumphs in smaller states that, if history is any guide, will be irrelevant to Democrats in the general election: Mississippi has not voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Lyndon Johnson, in 1964, was the last Democrat to win Wyoming.

Clinton, who has won Democratic strongholds with lots of electoral votes, such as California, New Jersey, and New York, has tried to seize on Obama's victories in so-called red states to argue that he is winning in places that do not really matter, while she is winning ones that do.

"If you cannot win Ohio, you cannot win the presidency," Clinton said last week after her win there, one of the most important swing states in a general election.

But Obama, to date, has won more traditionally Democratic states than Clinton. Among the states that voted for Democrats in the last two presidential elections - Senator John F. Kerry in 2004 and then-Vice President Al Gore in 2000 - he has twice as many victories as Clinton. Obama has also won twice as many traditionally Republican states, which he argues demonstrates his bipartisan appeal and competitiveness in November. Clinton and Obama have roughly split swing states.

One of Obama's top surrogates, Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri, yesterday dismissed Clinton's argument that Obama's track record somehow portends problems for him if he faces Senator John McCain.

"This is really a fallacy. Those Clinton voters will vote for Obama in November," McCaskill told MSNBC. "The key is the independent voter, and that's where Barack Obama has his strength."

Obama, himself, asked earlier this month whether he had to win bigger states such as Texas to prove his electability, told reporters: "I would think at this point, the question is no longer, is it a big enough state, or is it a state with too many black people, or is it a state that's in the Midwest, or is it a caucus state. We've won states and we've won delegates."

Analysts say neither candidate has a clear-cut case in trying to argue that primary results will correlate to what happens in November.

"Generally what we know from polling is that Democrats love both candidates, so in that sense it's just a logical fallacy to conclude, 'Well, I won California, therefore he could not win California in the general election,' " Herb Asher, a political scientist and public opinion specialist at Ohio State University, said of Clinton's assertions. "It just doesn't follow."

At the same time, Asher said, Obama's suggestion that his appeal in Republican terrain augurs well for the fall does not necessarily make sense, either.

"Winning a caucus in Kansas or a caucus in Wyoming is not the same thing as carrying the state" in a general election, Asher said. "They're both making claims that I think are exaggerated."

Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, said Obama and Clinton both have a point - to a point.

"The Democrats have to do well in big states in which they traditionally do well, but you can also make a case that they have to do well in many of the smaller red or purple states where they haven't done well," he said. "So I think you can argue it either way."

But Kohut said that because the pools of voters are so different in general elections and primaries, it is dangerous to apply conclusions from one to the other.

There are only eight states left to vote in the nomination race, starting with Pennsylvania next month and ending with Montana and South Dakota in June. Most of them lean Republican. Only two - Pennsylvania and Oregon - voted Democratic in 2000 and 2004; the remaining six all voted for President Bush both years.

Neither Clinton nor Obama had speeches last night after the Mississippi results.

"What we've tried to do is steadily make sure that in each state we are making the case about the need for change in this country," Obama told CNN last night. "Obviously the people in Mississippi responded."

Clinton issued a brief statement from campaign manager Maggie Williams congratulating Obama and saying, "Now we look forward to campaigning in Pennsylvania and around the country as this campaign continues."

Exit polls from Mississippi indicated a striking racial divide. Black voters, who made up roughly half of the electorate, were largely responsible for Obama's victory - he beat Clinton among blacks by a 9-to-1 ratio. But Clinton won nearly 3 in 4 white voters. Obama fared especially poorly among older whites and did better among younger whites, according to the exit polls, conducted for the Associated Press and television networks.

Voters said Clinton had run the more negative campaign. Sixty percent said Clinton had attacked her rival unfairly, while 39 percent of voters felt Obama had gone after Clinton unfairly.

Still, more than 60 percent of Democratic voters said they would be content with either as the eventual nominee, and a majority said Clinton or Obama should pick the other as a running mate.

Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com.