Turning tide in Indiana

Worried about Iraq and the economy, some Republican Hoosiers are feeling blue, and may vote that way, too

FORT WAYNE, INDIANA - Throughout her life, Linda Eggert, a 51-year-old stay-at-home mother, has been a staunch Republican. But on May 6, when the marathon Democratic primary comes to Indiana, Eggert will cast her ballot for Hillary Clinton.

"Everybody is kind of rethinking their politics because of everything that is going on," Eggert said, citing her growing concerns about Iraq and the economy. She added, "Do I think [Indiana] could go Democrat for once in November? I hope it could."

Long an afterthought in presidential politics, Indiana Democrats - who haven't delivered their state in the general election since 1964, and haven't had a meaningful say in picking their party's nominee since 1968 - see the growing excitement over the contest between Clinton and Barack Obama as an opportunity to build up muscle in places where the party's national reach had atrophied.

The interest in the Clinton-Obama fight, they say, is helping to shift political identities. Thousands of people are signing up as new voters - 383,954 Hoosiers have registered since the 2006 election - while some people who have always voted Republican are deciding that they might just be comfortable casting a ballot for a Democrat.

While national Democratic leaders worry that the protracted campaign could damage their eventual nominee, local Democrats say that the primary race may be the best thing to happen to the party in years.

Former Democratic representative Tim Roemer says Democrats have "a reasonable shot" of winning Indiana for the first time since Lyndon B. Johnson, likening their chances to the odds of making a three-point basketball shot. Although socially conservative, he said, Hoosiers are "economically populist," and both Democratic campaigns have been hammering home their plans for improving job growth.

"The economy and jobs and trade - combined with gas prices - are the issues that Indiana voters are going to be voting on in November," said Roemer, who supports Obama. "The more they see Democrats talking about these issues, the more likely that . . . Indiana is in play."

Some Republicans scoff at the idea that the voting patterns in states with competitive Democratic primaries might signal a true realignment. Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh has called on his listeners to vote for Clinton as a strategic move, hoping to prolong the competition and sow "chaos" among Democrats.

But Eggert, for one, says she plans to vote as a Democrat because she is disgusted by the Iraq war, and that she picked Clinton because she was most impressed by the New York senator in debates. Eggert said her mother - another "lifelong Republican" - and several Republican friends are also voting for Clinton or Obama this year, all because they sincerely think their favored candidate should win.

And Limbaugh's explanation doesn't fit the longtime Republicans who are backing Obama.

"I know Republicans that are planning on voting in the Democratic primary because they are particularly impressed with Obama," said Brian Howey, who publishes a newsletter for Indiana political insiders.

Among the Indiana Republicans to endorse Obama is William Ruckelshaus, the former Indiana House majority leader who gained fame when he resigned as deputy attorney general during the Nixon administration's "Saturday Night Massacre" of officials who refused to shut down the Watergate investigation. Ruckelshaus, a member of a prominent Indiana Republican family, was also the head of the Environmental Protection Agency. "Senator Obama's ability to attract not only Democrats, but also Republicans and independents, makes him uniquely qualified to build the broad coalitions needed to address our nation's challenges," Ruckelshaus said when announcing his endorsement earlier this month.

Ruckleshaus isn't alone. Dede Hall, a former Fort Wayne city councilwoman who was elected as a Republican, was playing bridge recently with a group of friends - "a very conservative, upper middle-class group" she says - when it emerged that all eight of the women were thinking of voting for Obama. The rare spectacle of a relevant Indiana primary, Hall said, is providing an outlet for Republicans who are dissatisfied with the status quo to reconsider Democrats.

"I feel myself becoming more of an independent voter," Hall said. Citing her dissatisfacation with soaring federal spending under Republican rule, Hall added: "If someone asked me if I was a Republican at this point, I wouldn't want to be."

In Indiana, voters don't declare party preference when they register and are free to participate in what amounts to an 'open' primary.

There are other voting blocs being drawn in as well. One is new voters. In 2004, when President Bush and Senator John F. Kerry had already locked up their party's nominations by the time of the Indiana primary, the state had 4.16 million registed voters. Since then, even though the state subsequently purged 600,000 names of deceased or incarcerated voters from the rolls, its rolls are up to 4.31 million, for a net gain of about 750,000.

Another energized bloc is independent and casual voters. In 2004, just 21 percent of registered voters took part in the primary. This year, far more are expected to cast votes..

John Roos, a political science professor at the University of Notre Dame, said Indiana has a sizable population of independents who swing between the parties but have rarely participated in past primaries. Such independents are likely to be drawn into the May primary, making them more likely to vote Democrat again in November.

"I think [the primary] will make Indiana more competitive in the fall," Roos said.

To be sure, no political analyst is predicting that Indiana is very likely be a "blue" state in November just because of the primary. After all, Republican presidential nominees have won 10 straight contests here.

"There is always the possibility that the level of excitement will be held through November, but that is a long uphill climb for the state of Indiana," said Andy Downs, who runs the Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.

Still, analysts say, if Democrats can close the gap with Republicans in the presidential election enough to make the state competitive, it would force the GOP to divert campaign money to Indiana.

And, analysts note, despite Indiana's "red" image, Democrats have been having mounting success in Indiana. They control the state House of Representatives and have more mayors than Republicans. Democrats also took three congressional districts away from Republicans in 2006, giving them a majority of the state's delegation. Now, they are hoping to build on those gains.

Senator Evan Bayh, the Indiana Democrat and former governor who is supporting Clinton, said he shares the worry that if Clinton and Obama attack each other personally too much, it could damage the party's chances in November. But so far, he said, the excitement over the primary election is proving to be a tremendous boon for the state party.