In polls, Clinton picking up steam, Obama sputtering
Pa. primary, controversies fuel shift
A slew of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina - which hold key primaries Tuesday - suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.
In North Carolina, a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. poll out yesterday indicated that Obama's lead among likely primary voters had narrowed to 49 percent to 42 percent, while a Research 2000 survey put his lead at 51 percent to 44 percent. He had double-digit leads in most prior polling.
And in Indiana, where the race had been a tossup in surveys last week, Clinton led in the three most recent polls. She is ahead 46 percent to 41 percent in a Rasmussen survey, 50 percent to 42 percent in a Public Polling Policy survey, and 52 percent to 43 percent in a SurveyUSA poll.
Obama's support also appeared to be slipping in an array of national polls.
In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released yesterday, Obama led 46 percent to 45 percent among Democrats nationally, down from 52 percent to 45 percent last month. A national Pew Research Center survey also released yesterday suggested that Obama's lead among Democrats had narrowed to 47 percent to 45 percent from 49 percent to 39 percent last month and that fewer Democrats think of him in positive terms such as honest and inspiring.
In an national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey published yesterday, Obama's lead narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings climbed since March. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively. In the new poll, however, 46 percent viewed him favorably and 37 percent negatively.
In a national New York Times/CBS poll published yesterday, Obama led 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent said they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.
In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton led Obama 44 percent to 41 percent among Democrats, and his unfavorability rating was up 9 percentage points to 42 percent since February.
And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now viewed Clinton as the candidate likelier to beat McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.
And in Quinnipiac University polling released yesterday, Clinton was stronger than Obama in matchups against McCain in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain's 41 percent in Florida, 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania. Obama is statistically tied with McCain in Florida and Ohio, while leading him in Pennsylvania by 47 percent to 38 percent, according to the polls.
The polls were being conducted as Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., was making a series of highly publicized speeches and as Obama repudiated him. The CNN poll indicated that 59 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of Wright, while 9 percent had a favorable opinion.
