Races to show if missteps are costing Obama

Polls suggest Clinton gains momentum

FORT WAYNE, Ind. - Voters in today's Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina will offer the first real evidence of whether Barack Obama's campaign has been damaged by the latest controversy surrounding his former pastor, while Hillary Clinton faces another make-or-break moment.

The two primaries have taken on new importance as Clinton appears to be gaining momentum after her victory in Pennsylvania two weeks ago, and Obama has the eyes of the political world on him as he seeks to recover from the first serious missteps of his campaign.

"We're working as hard as we can and I desperately want every single vote here in North Carolina, and in Indiana," Obama said during an appearance yesterday, when he jetted between the two states hoping to win over late-deciding voters, who tipped the scales for Clinton in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Obama, who leads in elected delegates and popular votes, could effectively end the nomination fight with victories in both states, according to analysts. But few expect him to pull it off.

Instead, the Illinois senator, who led by as many as 20 percentage points in early polls in North Carolina, is counting on a simple victory there to help him put to rest questions about his handling of the disputes involving Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., his longtime pastor - and to reassure superdelegates skittish about Obama's prospects in November.

After first condemning Wright's controversial sermons but defending the pastor as an honorable man, Obama rejected Wright in no uncertain terms last week after the minister took to the airwaves to defend his statements, including his assertion that the United States provoked the 9/11 attacks with its foreign policies, and to take aim at Obama.

The clash dominated campaign news for several days and caused Obama to drop in some polls nationally and in the two states voting today. After being neck-and-neck in Indiana polls, Clinton has opened a roughly 5-percentage-point lead, according to an average of recent polls; Obama's lead in North Carolina fell from double to single digits in most polls.

Obama is also trying to recover from attacks over his comments about small-town voters who are "bitter" over their economic struggles and who "cling to guns or religion."

Clinton is banking on a populist message - including a gas-tax holiday that she and Obama have been warring over for days in TV ads and speeches - to rack up big margins among working-class white voters so she can win in Indiana, and at least come close in North Carolina, and reinforce her argument to superdelegates that she is more likely to build a winning coalition in the fall.

"If either of them scores a win in both states, it would be a tremendous upset," said Wayne Lesperance, a political scientist at New England College.

If Obama were to prevail in both contests, Clinton would come under increased pressure to withdraw from the race, Lesperance said. Obama would also effectively end her chances of winning the national popular vote without counting disputed primaries in Florida and Michigan, where Obama wasn't on the ballot.

But Clinton is considered likely to win Indiana, and if she were to pull off an upset in North Carolina - which shares a similar demographic profile to neighboring Virginia and South Carolina, where Obama won by landslides - it would signal a sharp drop in Obama's support.

"If Hillary were to win both Indiana and North Carolina - boy, it would certainly strengthen her case, and we'll definitely go all the way to the convention," Lesperance said.

With a combined 187 pledged delegates, the two states are the biggest left to vote. They haven't had this big a say in the Democratic presidential race for decades, so election officials are reporting unusually high interest. In North Carolina, more than 488,000 voters have cast early and absentee ballots, nearly 13 percent of eligible voters. In Indiana, at least 159,000 people have voted, about 4 percent of eligible voters.

North Carolina takes on greater importance for Obama because the balance of the primary schedule tilts toward Clinton, in terms of states that include voting blocs that have favored her in the past.

If Obama lost North Carolina, he would be under pressure to show strength in states where Clinton is perceived to have an advantage.

West Virginia, which votes next week, and Kentucky the week after, have large populations of white working-class voters, who have supported Clinton strongly in recent contests. Puerto Rico, which votes on June 1, has longstanding warm feelings toward Clinton and her husband.

Obama's best chances for a breakthrough would be in Oregon, on May 20, and the final contests in Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

He has tended to do well among rural voters in some Western states and among upscale Democrats in college towns and state capitals.

The strategic, philosophical, and even demographic dimensions of the battle between Clinton and Obama were on display yesterday and over the weekend in their escalating rhetoric over a proposed "holiday" from the federal gas tax this summer.

Obama, speaking in Fort Wayne on Sunday, said the dispute highlighted "a big difference" between the two candidates.

"I don't want to tell you what you want to hear - I want to tell you the truth," he said, saying of the gas tax holiday, "John McCain proposes it and Hillary says 'Me, too.' "

The proposal, Obama said, would provide limited benefits to motorists - an average of $27 in savings for the summer - and no benefits to needy people who don't drive; he trumpeted a permanent middle-class tax cut instead.

But Clinton, campaigning yesterday in both North Carolina and Indiana, suggested that Obama wasn't listening to voters - and was ignoring a real need for help.

In Merrillville, Ind., Clinton used a red fire truck as a backdrop to defend her efforts to help the middle class. She again criticized Obama for focusing on long-term economic and energy-policy solutions at the expense of urgent, if modest, relief for working families.

"It's a false choice, as my opponents and others are trying to say: 'Oh, we can't do anything in the short run to help people; we can only worry about what we do in the long run,' " Clinton said. "People live in the short run. People get up every day and have to fill up their tanks. They have to go to the grocery store."

A few minutes later, Clinton hit Obama again on the issue, saying he did not understand what people are going through.

"He's always going on TV, and he's always saying, 'Oh, you know, this is like $20,' " she said. "For a lot of people, $20 is something, right?"

Scott Helman of the Globe staff and Globe correspondent Matt Negrin contributed to this report.