Trouble signs as Obama closes in
Doubts on extent of his appeal; Signals are mixed on Clinton plans
Fifty-six contests. Hundreds of millions of dollars raised and spent. More than 35 million votes cast. And, finally, five months later, one apparent winner.
Barely.
As the epic Democratic presidential primary battle finally comes to conclusion today with votes in South Dakota and Montana, Senator Barack Obama is trying to round up enough superdelegate endorsements so he can declare victory by reaching the threshold of 2,118 delegates required to seal the nomination. He was 41.5 short as of last night, with 31 at stake in today's contests.
But even as Hillary Clinton sends mixed signals about her willingness to leave the race, Obama, unlike his counterparts in recent presidential cycles, is not exactly sprinting across the finish line.
Over the last three months, the Illinois senator has won six of 14 contests, one less than the seven Clinton has won. (They essentially tied in Texas as she won the primary and he won the caucus.) A loss to Clinton in either primary today would underscore Obama's relatively weak finish and make his narrow victory over the New York senator slimmer.
"Usually there's this I-want-to-be-with-the-winner mentality, and you're not seeing that this time," said David Johnson, a Republican pollster who heads the firm Strategic Vision.
Obama and his supporters contend that victory is victory, and that the nomination contest has always been a race for delegates. But some analysts say his less-than-overwhelming recent showing signals trouble - or at least hurdles - as he begins a general election campaign against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.
"To me it indicates he's weaker than people would hope," said Harwood McClerking, a political scientist at Ohio State University. "I was surprised that he's been regularly losing over the last month-and-a-half when people had given him the election."
Johnson said the fact that Obama has not closed with a string of victories is not, by itself, cause for worry. He noted that Jimmy Carter lost primaries at the end of the 1976 nomination race but still won the general election, and Ronald Reagan four years later lost late primaries in Pennsylvania and Michigan but beat Carter in the fall.
The real concern, Johnson said, is the story behind Obama's recent losses: his lackluster showing among white, blue-collar voters, who are key voting blocs in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania that Democrats have always had to win.
Indeed, the divided nature of the Democratic electorate is a chief concern for Obama, one he has begun going out of his way to address. Campaigning in Troy, Mich., yesterday, he praised Clinton for running an "outstanding race," and said, "She and I will be working together in November." His comments, which were not part of his prepared text, seemed to be more inconclusive than his remarks in South Dakota on Sunday, when he said Clinton would be a "great asset when we go into November."
Clinton and her supporters are sounding deeply conflicting notes about her intentions after polls close tonight. On one hand, her words and actions suggest her campaign is nearing its end: Her campaign machinery is reportedly preparing to gear down, and she will spend tonight in her home state of New York; her comments toward Obama have softened; and her husband, President Bill Clinton, was wistful on the stump yesterday in South Dakota.
"This may be the last day I'm ever involved in a campaign of this kind," he said. "I thought I was out of politics, till Hillary decided to run. But it has been one of the greatest honors of my life to be able to go around and campaign for her for president."
At the same time, Clinton's campaign was boasting of her wide victory Sunday in Puerto Rico's primary and appealing to superdelegates as well. Also, top supporters such as Harold Ickes have continued to express outrage over the deal the Democratic Party worked out Saturday to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida, but with only half-votes each. The agreement gave Clinton a net gain of 24 delegates, far less than her campaign wanted. Ickes said again on MSNBC yesterday that Clinton reserves the right to appeal the decision to a committee of Democratic Party officials this summer, though it was unclear whether she would follow through on that threat if Obama clinches the nomination.
But even some of Clinton's leading supporters in the party - including Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Tom Vilsack, former Iowa governor - have voiced resignation in recent days that Obama will be the nominee, and that it was time to unite behind him. Many of the remaining 65 or so undeclared Democratic senators and House members are reportedly preparing to endorse Obama today or tomorrow.
As of last night, there were about 190 superdelegates who had yet to publicly commit to a candidate. Between appearances yesterday, Obama was making personal appeals to them by phone.
"There are a lot of superdelegates who are waiting for the last couple of contests but I think that they are going to be making decisions fairly quickly after that," Obama told reporters yesterday in Waterford, Mich. "We feel good about the number of superdelegates that we have been accumulating and my sense is that between Tuesday and Wednesday that we've got a good chance of getting the number that we need to win the nomination."
Obama also recounted a talk he had with Clinton on Sunday, saying he told her that he looked forward to meeting with her after today's final votes are over.
"I emphasized to her what an extraordinary race that she's run and said that there aren't too many people who understand exactly how hard she's been working," Obama said. "I'm one of 'em because she and I have been on this same journey together, and told her that once the dust settled I was looking forward to meeting with her at a time and place of her choosing."
There is some concern among Democrats about the lack of a strong finish by Obama in the primaries, but some analysts say it will be water under the bridge in a few short weeks.
Dean Lacy, a professor of government at Dartmouth College, said the recent primary results suggest that Obama has work to do among the white working class, and Lacy said he was surprised that Obama did not fare better in Puerto Rico, which Clinton won by a more than 2-to-1 margin. But in the end, he said, what really matters is that Obama would win the nomination, not how.
"That will be an afterthought," Lacy said.
Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist who supported Clinton during the primaries, said despite Obama's lackluster finish, the desire for change is so great among American voters - with an unpopular war, a sputtering economy, gas costing more than $4 a gallon, and a president with "Nixonian" approval ratings - that it will not damage the Democratic ticket.
"KG [Kevin Garnett] may have looked very tired at the end of Game 6," Lehane said, "and yet the Celtics are going on to the championship."
Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com. 