A look at the political center

By The Associated Press  |  July 3, 2008

A recent AP-Yahoo News poll shows that 15 percent of the electorate -- people who call themselves moderates and aren't solidly supporting a candidate -- make up the persuadable middle. More than half are independents and, judging by history, many probably don't vote party line. The center of the electorate is where the White House is all but certain to be won or lost. Both Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are aggressively going after these voters, the most prized group but also the most difficult to reach.

The AP-Yahoo News poll is part of an ongoing study that tracks the attitudes and opinions of a group of more than 2,000 Americans to see how their political views evolve over the course of the election campaign. The AP-Yahoo News survey of 1,759 adults was conducted from June 13-23 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for moderates who aren't firmly supporting a candidate is plus or minus 6.0 percentage points. Some responses below are taken from interviews conducted in earlier waves of the study.

The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.

A look at some of the findings of moderates who are still persuadable:

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION:

--61 percent undecided, 19 percent McCain, 17 percent Obama.

--58 percent call themselves independents when first asked; these independents are twice as likely to lean Democrat as Republican.

--38 percent say they are definitely independent, or say they have no party affiliation, and refuse to lean.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS:

--60 percent have a high school education or less.

--24 percent are Hispanic.

--67 percent are married.

--38 percent have children living in the household.

--22 percent live in far-flung suburbs or rural areas.

--20 percent are white evangelicals.

--28 percent are Catholics.

--25 percent have no religious affiliation.

INTEREST/MOBILIZATION:

--69 percent are registered to vote.

--67 percent aren't too interested in the campaign.

--6 percent say they are excited by the election.

PRESIDENT BUSH:

--10 percent approve of Bush.

CONGRESS:

--11 percent approve of Congress.

OBAMA:

--36 percent have a favorable impression.

--21 percent don't know enough about Obama yet to rate.

MCCAIN:

--45 percent have a favorable impression of McCain.

--25 percent don't know enough about McCain yet to rate.

THE PARTIES:

--56 percent have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party.

--32 percent have a favorable impression of the Republican Party.

ISSUES VS. QUALITIES:

--41 percent say issues are most important to their vote.

--41 percent say personal qualities are more important.

ISSUE RANKINGS:

--Gas prices/economy.

--Health care.

--Social Security/taxes/education.

--Terrorism/Iraq.

ECONOMY:

--41 percent say it is very difficult for them and their family to get ahead financially these days.

--43 percent worry a lot about facing major unexpected medical expenses.

--26 percent worry a lot about losing a job.

--35 percent worry a lot about being able to keep up with mortgage and credit card payments.

--51 percent say gas prices will cause a serious financial hardship for their families over the next six months.

DEFENSE/IRAQ:

--53 percent say strengthening military defense should be a high priority.

--71 percent say removing U.S. troops from Iraq should be a high priority.

--68 percent say bring troops home from Iraq as soon as possible.

HEALTH CARE:

--74 percent favor adopting universal health insurance.

--56 percent favor a single-payer health plan financed by the government.

SOCIAL SECURITY:

--86 percent say protecting Social Security and Medicare should be a high priority.

EDUCATION:

--63 percent say it should be a high priority to increase public education funding.

ENVIRONMENT:

--56 percent say reducing global warming should be a high priority.

CRIME:

--54 percent say toughening criminal sentencing guidelines should be a high priority.

TERRORISM/WIRETAPS:

--51 percent say it is generally right for the government to monitor phone/e-mail communications of suspected terrorists without a warrant.

SOCIAL ISSUES/MORALITY:

--41 percent say promoting traditional families should be a high priority.

--10 percent say advancing gay rights should be a high priority.

--35 percent oppose giving legal rights to same-sex couples.

--17 percent oppose stem cell research with human embryos.

ABORTION:

--15 percent say overturning Roe v. Wade should be a priority.

--26 percent would like Roe v. Wade to be overturned.

--58 percent say abortion should mostly be legal.

GUNS:

--76 percent say people should be allowed to keep handguns in their homes.

--57 percent favor a nationwide ban on semiautomatic handguns.

IMMIGRATION:

--60 percent say reducing illegal immigration should be a high priority.

--54 percent oppose providing some path toward legal status for illegal immigrants.

TAXES:

--73 percent say cutting taxes should be a high priority.

--47 percent say the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed while others remain in place.

TRADE:

--28 percent say repealing NAFTA should be a high priority.

--12 percent say increasing trade between the U.S. and other countries has helped the economy.

--55 percent oppose negotiating more free trade agreements.

RACIAL ATTITUDES:

--36 percent have favorable views of blacks.

--16 percent have unfavorable views.

RELIGIOUS VIEWS:

--24 percent believe the Bible is the word of God and should be taken literally.

SOCIAL TRUST:

--24 percent say most people can be trusted.

POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE:

--65 percent knew that the Democrats currently have a majority in Congress.

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Analysis by Associated Press Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson