Voters send a message on the economy

Republicans scored glitzy wins Tuesday night in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, prompting many in the GOP to cite what they saw as public disillusionment with President Obama and his policies, especially his plan to expand health care coverage. Democrats, meanwhile, pointed defensively to their own victories in two special elections for US House seats - giving them two more votes for a strong health care bill that, they said, the nation still wants.

But the election sent a message that was deeper than those conveyed by short-term, partisan talking points.

With economic anxiety still high, the bigger concern for Obama and majority Democrats is not the Tuesday night math but the next set of unemployment figures to be released tomorrow, lawmakers said. At 9.8 percent in September, unemployment is expected to edge closer to 10 percent, reflecting the harsh reality that whatever economic recovery is taking place is leaving many Americans behind, still looking for jobs.

“People on Main Street are hurting. My congressional office [in New Jersey] is turning into a counseling service’’ for people who are losing their homes to foreclosure or are being hassled by credit card companies, said Representative Bill Pascrell, Democrat of New Jersey.

“This is not a Republican or Democratic year. This is a year when people reached out for a target,’’ Pascrell said, adding that voters could do so again in the 2010 midterms if Washington does not fix things.

Between 85 and 89 percent of voters in Virginia and New Jersey said they were worried about the direction of the economy in the next year, and the Republican candidates won the majority of those voters in both states, according to exit polls. Further, exit polls in Virginia found that 46 percent of voters said the economy was the most important issue, while 25 percent cited health care.

“People want jobs,’’ said Representative Michael Michaud, Democrat of Maine and a “Blue Dog’’ conservative still undecided on the health care bill. “We have got to start focusing on jobs and the economy.’’

Democrats and the Obama administration have pushed hard toward passing a health care bill, trying to take advantage of the momentum associated with the new president’s high approval ratings. But while the health care package has already moved much further along in Congress than any coverage expansion in four decades, Democratic leaders are scrambling to line up the votes they need.

Liberals said they would not be deterred by the landslide win for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell in Virginia, and the victory for Republican Chris Christie in New Jersey, a reliably Democratic state.

Instead of making Democrats more wary of passing a health care bill, Tuesday’s election results mean “people are going to get more determined to get something done,’’ said Representative Patrick Kennedy, Democrat of Rhode Island, echoing the theme of his fellow House liberals. “They realize that if we do nothing, we will have more to account for when we go home.’’

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi picked up two more House allies, with Democratic wins in special elections for seats in California and in upstate New York, where a Democrat took control of the seat for the first time in more than 100 years.

“We had a candidate who was victorious who supports health care reform, and his remarks last night said that this was a victory for health care reform and other initiatives for the American people,’’ Pelosi told reporters yesterday. “From my perspective, we won last night.’’

Republican leaders, meanwhile, seized on their state victories as evidence of a national backlash against the Democratic agenda.

“Independent-minded voters rejected the Democrats’ super-majority in Washington and elected candidates who made fiscal responsibility a key mantra of their campaigns,’’ National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Jon Cornyn of Texas said in a post-election campaign memo.

But moderate Democrats and Republicans said the election results did not affect their thinking on the health care package, which has already left many of them undecided.

“This was no wake-up call for me,’’ said Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska, a conservative Democrat who is undecided on the health care legislation. Asked whether the election gave him pause about health care, he said, “I’ve had pause for a long time.’’

“I think people are fed up with the status quo,’’ said Senator Olympia J. Snowe, a moderate Maine Republican who provided Democrats with their only GOP vote for health care change in the Finance Committee last month. While Snowe maintains the position she had before Tuesday’s elections - to slow down and “get it right’’ on health care - she said her constituents were very worried about job losses.

“It’s tough to be an incumbent when there’s an economic downturn like this,’’ said Senator Kent Conrad, a moderate Democrat from North Dakota.

While the ruling party tends to be punished at the polls in an economic downturn, Republicans, too, have troubles heading into next year. Conservative activists have been trying to take the party to the right, a move they said will help the GOP expand by taking it back to its ideological roots.

But the embarrassing New York loss showed that the schism can cost the party seats in the general election. Republicans in the Watertown-area district nominated a moderate, Dede Scozzafava, and normally would have been expected to defeat Democrat Bill Owens in the reliably GOP seat.

But Bill Hoffman, backed heavily by the conservative group the Club for Growth, ran as a Conservative Party candidate, ultimately forcing Scozzafava to drop out days before the election. She threw her support behind Owens, and the Democrat won.

Former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee blamed his party for the debacle, saying it should have nominated a more conservative candidate to avoid a third-party challenge. “The tent can be big, but it shouldn’t have holes in the ceiling,’’ Huckabee said.

He said he didn’t see the race as a sign the Democratic message was resonating in historically conservative rural New York.

“The Republicans were stupid. The Republicans fumbled the ball, and the Democrats jumped on it in the end zone, as I see it,’’ he said.