Candidates hold back in GOP’s silent winter

So far this year, in marked contrast to the last presidential cycle, the GOP field is running a phantom primary. Potential candidates are hoarding money and gauging the shifting winds of Tea Party activists and a Democratic incumbent whose popularity has risen. Formal campaigning has yet to begin, and major candidates are hinting that they won’t announce anything — if they have anything to announce — until the first crocus buds appear in the Granite State.

“This is a chess match, not a steel cage match,’’ said former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who is among the early active primary campaigners and is beginning to build a staff in New Hampshire. “No one is out there lapping the field. There’s no great burning in anybody’s drawers to do anything.’’

By this time four years ago, at least 11 Republicans and nine Democrats had made formal plans to run for president. Of the Republicans, everyone except Fred Thompson had formed a campaign committee, which allows candidates to begin raising money and is typically the first step of a candidacy.

In 2011, only two notable GOP candidates have taken similar steps, and both are virtually unknown: Herman Cain, the former chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza, and Fred Karger, an openly gay political consultant from California.

Strategists say the big names — Romney, Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich — can bide their time and don’t have to spend months building recognition. Palin, Gingrich, and Huckabee also have contracts with Fox News they would probably have to give up if they became formal candidates.

“One of the big lessons from 2008 was these guys tripping over themselves in early January, burning through all the money, and giving the Republican Party fatigue by summer,’’ said Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who managed Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. “I don’t think that’s going to happen this cycle. This is going to be more of a sprint than a marathon.’’

For a voter in New Hampshire accustomed to being wooed in person by high-profile, national politicians, it means a much slower parade this year.

“There’s been a debate announced and scheduled for May — and yet we have no announced candidates, let alone acceptances from candidates,’’ said Fergus Cullen, who was chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party four years ago. “This is the state sport. People have been waiting for pitchers and catchers to report for a long time.’’

Potential candidates are still making frequent trips to key states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but often under the guise of a book tour or party-building speaking engagement. But organizers have had trouble generating commitments for an Iowa forum of evangelical Christians, the type of event GOP candidates swarmed to in early 2007.

Two sitting governors — Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Haley Barbour of Mississippi — have said they would wait until April, when the legislative sessions in their states end, to make their intentions known. Other candidates — such as Senator John Thune of South Dakota — have said they will make their decisions soon. Representative Mike Pence of Indiana said last week that he would not run.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, is not expected to announce any plans until the spring. “One of the lessons that Mitt Romney learned from the last campaign is that things got started too soon,’’ said Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom. “He’s in no hurry to announce his plans.’’

Until recently, Romney had kept a lower profile, writing opinion pieces on foreign policy but generally avoiding commenting on the dominant news of the day. That shifted after the State of the Union address last week, when Romney went on cable television and slammed President Obama’s policies. He said Obama lacked the know-how to fix the economy and had been “cavalier’’ in his approach to job creation.

“He just doesn’t know what the right things are that he’s got to do to make that happen,’’ Romney said on Fox News.

Romney will continue seeking to generate buzz with a round of TV interviews to coincide with the release of the paperback version of his book, “No Apology.’’ In the coming weeks, he’ll be joining a big lineup of Republican speakers at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington; he will also travel to a conference for franchise owners in Las Vegas and a Republican committee in Bartlett, N.H.

Analysts say fund-raising rules encourage potential candidates like Romney to wait longer before formally campaigning. Before forming a presidential fund-raising committee, which has an individual contribution limit of $2,400 per election, a prospective candidate can use a federal political action committee, which has a $5,000 individual contribution limit and fewer disclosure requirements.

They can also use state political action committees, some of which have unlimited contribution limits. Romney, for example, last year raised a combined $2 million from five state-level PACs —Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — according to the National Institute on Money in State Politics. Outside watchdogs have questioned such practices, but there have been no crackdowns from the Federal Election Commission.

Other reasons for the delayed presidential season may be Obama’s move toward the political center and his improvement in national polls.

“A lot of it has to do with a president who seems to have recovered his footing,’’ said Steve Lombardo, a Washington-based Republican consultant. “I don’t think [candidates] would be totally candid if they don’t acknowledge that the president’s turn-around in the last 60 days is causing those on the Republican side to think about what they’re going to do.’’

Matt Viser can be reached at maviser@globe.com.