Bush allies gear up for possible double vacancy on court

WASHINGTON -- A week after Justice Sandra Day O'Connor announced her retirement, the White House and its allies are preparing for the possibility that Chief Justice William Rehnquist might soon follow suit, opening up a second vacancy to fill and scrambling the politics of this summer's brewing nomination battle.

Talk of a possible Rehnquist retirement has reached full boil again as Republican strategists mapped out plans for how to tackle a double nomination. Advisers inside and outside the White House are discussing how to select two potential nominees, how they might match or balance each other, and how to sequence their confirmation hearings.

''We're prepared for every contingency," said a senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because Rehnquist has made no announcement. ''If it's multiple candidates, we'll be ready."

If Rehnquist decides to step down, President Bush will have the opportunity to put a decisive personal stamp on a closely divided Supreme Court that has seen no turnover for the past 11 years. Such a scenario would almost certainly escalate the high-decibel, high-dollar political showdown both sides already expect.

Twin vacancies would present Bush with an intriguing choice: Does he use the opportunity to appoint two reliable conservatives who would shift the court away from what he sees as improper judicial activism on divisive issues such as abortion, gay rights, and religion in public life? Or does he try to balance competing impulses by filling one seat with a conservative who would strictly interpret the Constitution and the other with his friend Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who is less favored by the right but would be the first Hispanic on the nation's highest court?

''If we get a second vacancy, then there's just a lot up for grabs," said Gary Bauer, a prominent Christian conservative leader who ran for president in 2000. ''It would mean a tremendous battle."

For the moment, Rehnquist's intentions remain unclear. The chief justice has not informed the White House of his plans, according to administration officials, and predictions that he would retire at the end of the court's term last week proved unfounded, or at least premature.

Yet in the days since O'Connor surprised the capital with her announcement, speculation in Washington has grown that Rehnquist was merely waiting to let her go first. At 80, Rehnquist is fighting thyroid cancer and missed months of oral arguments during the last term. Quoting unnamed court sources, columnist Robert Novak wrote yesterday that Rehnquist would retire by the end of the week. Others around the capital said they were calibrating strategies in the event he does.

Several officials and Republican strategists cautioned against presuming any quick retirement, figuring that Rehnquist would rather stay as long as physically possible and that he may resent feeling railroaded by public speculation about his future. But even if Rehnquist makes no immediate announcement, the White House and its political allies assume the seat ultimately will open, meaning Bush can plan for two nominations eventually.

If Rehnquist does retire, the advisers said, then the White House must decide whether to fill his seat first and let a replacement for O'Connor go second because she indicated in her retirement letter that she would continue to serve until a successor is confirmed. And Bush must decide whether to package a staunch conservative with a less conservative nominee such as Gonzales in hopes of satisfying various constituencies enough to ease confirmation, or to favor a bolder approach by advancing two reliable conservatives.

Conservatives have warned against Gonzales because they see him as too moderate on abortion and affirmative action. Bush has bristled at attacks on his friend and called on his supporters to tone down their rhetoric.

Gonzales said yesterday that he was not campaigning to become a justice, but did not rule it out either. ''I've been asked since 2001 whether or not I'd consider going on the court, and I've consistently said, 'I'm not a candidate for the Supreme Court' -- and that remains true today," Gonzales told The Denver Post. ''I love being attorney general. My job, currently, is to help the president make this decision."