Bush says defeating Iraq insurgency is critical

WASHINGTON -- President Bush said yesterday that defeating the insurgency in Iraq is critical in order to prevent Islamist militants from seizing control of the country as a base to ''establish a radical Islamic empire that spans from Spain to Indonesia."

Seeking to shore up dwindling public support for the war, Bush's speech before the National Endowment for Democracy sought to lay out, in detail, why the bloody struggle between US forces and insurgents in Iraq is linked to Islamic terrorist networks responsible for deadly bombings against civilians from London to Bali. The perpetrators, the president said, are groups whose ''clear and focused ideology" of ''Islamo-fascism" is ''evil, but not insane."

''The terrorists' goal is to overthrow a rising democracy, claim a strategic country as a haven for terror, destabilize the Middle East, and strike America and other free nations with ever-increasing violence," he said. ''Our goal is to defeat the terrorists and their allies at the heart of their power, and so we will defeat the enemy in Iraq."

Bush's speech was part of an event commemorating the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, but it also came amid a surge of bombings in Iraq ahead of the Oct. 15 vote to ratify the nation's constitution. Meanwhile, American military fatalities approach 2,000, public opinion polls indicate that support for the war -- and Bush's job approval ratings -- were at or near all-time lows, and more than 100,000 protesters surrounded the White House two weeks ago, demanding an immediate end to the war.

A study by the Congressional Research Service released yesterday estimates the Bush administration is spending about $7 billion a month to wage the war on terror, and costs could total $570 billion by the end of 2010. The report arrives as the Senate is ready to give President Bush $50 billion more for military operations.

The speech generated a chorus of criticism from Democrats, who accused Bush of using Sept. 11 to justify the Iraq war, even though Iraq had nothing to do with the Al Qaeda attacks. Some analysts have said that the insurgents fighting the United States in Iraq are not foreign Islamist fighters but primarily Iraqi Sunnis who want to drive out an occupier and restore their domination of the country.

''Every American agrees we must win the war on terror, but after today's speech every American is still waiting to hear the president offer any specifics about how we will win or how he will clean up a terrorist mess in Iraq that didn't exist before the invasion," said Senator John F. Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts.

In his speech, Bush said that the United States and its partners had disrupted at least 10 ''serious" Al Qaeda plots since the Sept. 11 attacks, including three Al Qaeda plots to attack inside the United States. According to the White House fact sheet, those include terrorist plots to use hijacked airplanes against targets on the West Coast in mid-2002 and on the East Coast in mid-2003, as well as the case of Jose Padilla, an American who was arrested in May 2002, accused of promising Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan that he would blow up apartment buildings.

Addressing his critics, Bush said those who believe that the United States would be better off if it cut its losses in Iraq and brought its troops home now aren't being realistic. Abandoning Iraq to fighters who back Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al- Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born sympathizer and insurgent commander, would be an ''invitation to greater violence" in the future, he said.

''There's always a temptation in the middle of a long struggle to seek the quiet life, to escape the duties and problems of the world, and to hope the enemy grows weary of fanaticism and tired of murder," Bush said. ''This would be a pleasant world, but it's not the world we live in. . . . In Iraq there is no peace without victory."

But Leslie Cagen, an organizer with United for Peace and Justice, said the peace movement believes the conflict in Iraq is largely sustained by the continued US military occupation, which is provoking more violence and creating new terrorists.

''I don't think we need to assume that the US leaving would lead to a worst-case scenario," she said.

Bush also vowed that the United States would win the struggle through a five-part strategy: disrupting terrorist attacks before they happen, keeping weapons of mass destruction from terrorist hands, pressuring ''outlaw regimes" such as Syria and Iran to stop helping terrorists, preventing Islamists from taking over a country as they once did in Afghanistan, and spreading democracy throughout the Middle East.

Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, said the strategy was nothing new: ''The president seems to be saying 'full speed ahead' for our current failed policy in Iraq, when it is abundantly clear that staying the course is the wrong course for America."

But Bush insisted that sticking to the battle plan is the only way to prevent violent militants from seizing Iraq and using it ''to develop weapons of mass destruction, to destroy Israel, to intimidate Europe, to assault the American people, and to blackmail our government into isolation."

Wayne White, a former Iraq analyst for the State Department who recently joined the Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, noted Bush's emphasis on keeping Iraq from falling to violent extremists who could in turn threaten moderate Islamic regimes around the world.

Bush's message, he said, was ironic because it sharply contrasts with the administration's past optimism that the war could lead to a domino effect spreading democracy through the Middle East.

''We're seeing a switch from an effort to achieve stunning goals in the direction of democracy that has now degenerated into damage control -- preventing the other side from fulfilling its own grand scheme," said White. ''It's kind of sad, when you think about it, that this is where we are."

Plots disclosed

After President Bush yesterday said the United States has disrupted 10 ''serious" Al Qaeda terrorist plots since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the White House released a list of the alleged plots. Some are well known; others are being disclosed for the first time. The White House also listed five ''casings and infiltrations." Officials said they couldn't give specifics because the details are classified.

According to the fact sheet prepared by the National Security Council, the alleged plots were:

1. The West Coast Airliner Plot. In mid-2002, the United States disrupted a plot to attack targets on the West Coast using hijacked airplanes. The plotters included at least one major operational planner involved in planning the events of Sept. 11, 2001.

2. The East Coast Airliner Plot. In mid-2003, the United States and a partner disrupted a plot to attack targets on the East Coast using hijacked commercial airplanes.

3. The Jose Padilla Plot. In May 2002, the United States disrupted a plot that involved blowing up apartment buildings in the country. One of the plotters, Jose Padilla, also discussed the possibility of using a ''dirty bomb," a homemade nuclear device, in the country.

4. The 2004 UK Urban Targets Plot. In mid-2004, the United States and partners disrupted a plot that involved urban targets in the United Kingdom.

5. The 2003 Karachi Plot. In spring 2003, the United States and a partner disrupted a plot to attack Westerners at several targets in Karachi, Pakistan.

6. The Heathrow Airport Plot. In 2003, the United States and several partners disrupted a plot to attack Heathrow Airport using hijacked commercial airliners.

7. The 2004 UK Plot. In spring 2004, the United States and partners disrupted a plot to conduct large-scale bombings in the United Kingdom.

8. The 2002 Arabian Gulf Shipping Plot. In late 2002 and 2003, the United States and a partner nation disrupted a plot by Al Qaeda operatives to attack ships in the Arabian Gulf.

9. The 2002 Straits of Hormuz Plot. In 2002, the United States and partners disrupted a plot to attack ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz.

10. The 2003 Tourist Site Plot. In 2003, the United States and a partner disrupted a plot to attack a tourist site outside the country.

Five casings and infiltrations

1. The US Government & Tourist Sites Tasking: In 2003 and 2004, an individual was tasked by Al Qaeda to case important US government and tourist targets.

2. The Gas Station Tasking: Around 2003, an individual was tasked to collect information on US gas stations and their support mechanisms.

3. Iyman Faris and the Brooklyn Bridge: In 2003, in conjunction with a partner nation, the US government arrested and prosecuted Iyman Faris, who was exploring the destruction of the Brooklyn Bridge. Faris ultimately pleaded guilty to providing material support to Al Qaeda and is incarcerated.

4. 2001 Tasking: In 2001, Al Qaeda sent an individual to facilitate post-Sept. 11 attacks in the country. US authorities arrested the individual.

5. 2003 Tasking: In 2003, an individual was tasked by an Al Qaeda leader to conduct reconnaissance on populated areas in the United States.