Behind the topsy-turvy turn in Bush's Iraq poll numbers

WASHINGTON -- Despite his renewed aggressiveness in defending the Iraq war, President Bush can't accuse the American people of flip-flopping. In a democracy, a political leader can't run against the people. Nonetheless, the latest polls on the Iraq war look like last year's numbers turned upside down.

The national change of heart has come too late for John F. Kerry, but it's worth wondering why views that were seemingly rejected a year ago -- that Bush had misled the country about the Iraqi threat and then mishandled the war -- are now readily accepted.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken this month, found that majorities of Americans now say the war was not worth it (52 percent said it wasn't, 42 percent said it was); that Bush had misled the country about prewar intelligence (57 percent vs. 35 percent); and that the president has not given good reasons to keep US troops there (58 percent to 38 percent).

Continued troop losses would account for a drop in support for the war. But they would not explain the sharp increases in those thinking Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney had misled the country.

The indictment of Cheney's former chief of staff, I. Lewis ''Scooter" Libby, on charges of lying to a grand jury, conveyed the impression that the administration has something to hide. And the publicity surrounding the Libby case helped to clear up lingering misperceptions that Iraq was behind the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.

For most of those who have followed the war closely, it would not come as news that Iraq was not responsible for 9/11. But last year, voters were operating under some shaky perceptions.

A Harris Poll, taken three weeks before the election, found that 41 percent of all voters -- and 52 percent of those backing Bush -- believed Saddam Hussein had ''helped plan and support the hijackers" who had attacked the United States in 2001.

In addition, 62 percent of all voters -- and 84 percent of those who voted for Bush -- believed that Hussein, the former Iraqi leader, had ''strong links" to Al Qaeda. Moreover, 58 percent of Bush voters believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction when the United States invaded.

All these views were wrong, based on investigations conducted after the war and reported well before the election.

Reasons for voters' confusion are probably many -- but the statements of Bush and Cheney during the campaign muddied the waters, creating plenty of opportunities for misunderstandings.

After the president's own inspector, David Kay, found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Bush said that Kay had found that Hussein was capable of making the weapons: ''David Kay did report to the American people that Saddam had the capacity to make weapons," Bush said on NBC's ''Meet the Press".

''Saddam Hussein was dangerous with weapons," he added. ''Saddam Hussein was dangerous with the ability to make weapons."

In fact, Kay reported that Hussein had no active programs for weapons of mass destruction. Kay's most worrisome finding had been that Hussein had pesticide equipment that could be switched to create fine-grained anthrax in a lab. But he had no way to deliver the anthrax so that it would inflict mass casualties.

Nonetheless, voters who happened to see Bush's remarks on television could be forgiven for thinking postwar investigations had linked Hussein to weapons of mass destruction.

And since the president repeatedly spoke of Hussein's support for ''terrorists," voters could also be excused for thinking that Hussein had been working with Al Qaeda. (In fact, the terrorists Hussein supported were Palestinian groups targeting Israel.)

Now, some of those voters are hearing a different message. The media coverage of the investigation that led to Libby's indictment made it abundantly clear that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and wasn't working with Al Qaeda. And many voters apparently decided that they were, in fact, misled.

Bush's aggressive Veterans Day remarks last week indicated that he intends to re-enter the fray, blasting away at Democrats like Kerry who voted for the war and now say they were misled.

But Bush's credibility problem isn't with the Democrats. Recent polls show increasing numbers of Bush's own voters feel they were misled.

It's these people whom Bush must win over if he intends to govern effectively for the next three years. And they can't be brushed aside as mere flip-floppers.

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.