Democrats see Northeast as ripe for picking

WASHINGTON -- The Democratic Party is targeting at least 17 Republican-held House seats in the Northeast among its top races nationwide, seeking to use voter dissatisfaction with President Bush and congressional leaders to oust many long-serving GOP representatives this fall.

From Pennsylvania to New Hampshire, Democrats are hoping that this year's congressional elections will bring a regional realignment to Congress, similar to the 1994 wave that swept out Southern Democrats and helped put Republicans in control of the House of Representatives.

''For a Democrat in this area, the planets are aligned," said Michael A. Arcuri, a leading Democratic candidate to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, a moderate Republican from central New York who announced his retirement last week. ''This district is a very moderate district, and it is clearly prepared to go to the Democratic side. . . . The priority of the Republican Party has never been the Northeast -- it just isn't."

Democrats need an increase of 15 seats nationwide to win the majority in the House -- a tall order with partisan redistricting plans leaving so few of the 435 House districts truly in play. In that context, Republicans who represent Democratic-tending states are tempting targets.

''You've got to go hunting where the ducks are," said Philip Klinkner, a government professor at Hamilton College in New York who edited a book about the 1994 congressional elections.

New England and mid-Atlantic states have rich Republican traditions, though they have moved toward the Democrats in recent elections.

While voters in many parts of the Northeast have continued to support long-serving Republican House members, Democrats are saying that those lawmakers have become enablers of a far-right GOP agenda and thus may be vulnerable.

The Boehlert seat is among six in upstate New York that are high on the Democrats' list of targets this fall, as the party seeks to capitalize on a weak regional economy and deep disaffection with the state GOP.

In neighboring Connecticut, three veteran Republican House members are being lambasted by aggressive Democratic challengers, who are sharply criticizing the incumbents for supporting the war in Iraq and the Medicare prescription drug benefit. In New Jersey, Representative Michael A. Ferguson is taking heat for his opposition to embryonic stem-cell research, with Democrats fielding a veteran state legislator, Linda Stender.

Six Pennsylvania Republicans are getting tough challenges, including three from the suburbs of Philadelphia whose districts supported Democrat John F. Kerry over Bush in the 2004 presidential campaign. In New Hampshire, Democratic leaders have coaxed the state House Democratic leader, Jim Craig, into taking on Representative Jeb Bradley, a two-term Republican.

''The mood of the country is beneficial to people like me," Craig said.

If Craig is right and Democrats make major gains in the Northeast, they will thin the already dwindling ranks of moderate Republicans, who have played major roles in developing centrist budget, environmental, and labor laws in recent years. Moderate Republicans should not be held responsible for the missteps and unpopular policy choices made by their more conservative colleagues, said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership.

''It's the moderate voice that forges the compromises and keeps the Republican Party leaning a little bit more to the center," Resnick said. ''If we lose seats, it would be ironic" because voters would be seeking a more centrist agenda by ousting centrists.

The loss of Northeastern Republicans would also exacerbate the nation's political polarization, with the red state-blue state divide that has come to define presidential politics spreading to congressional races as well. That could be a recipe for gridlock in Washington -- and for the public to grow further disillusioned with politics.

''We have a regional polarization already, and if it's further cemented, it makes compromise even harder, and it increases the partisan tenor of Congress," said Julian Zelizer, a congressional historian at Boston University.

Democrats and Republicans agree that an across-the-board sweep is highly unlikely. Many Northeastern Republicans have cultivated moderate voting records, have brimming campaign accounts, and have built up loyalty with their constituents over years or decades. But members of both parties foresee a series of tough, close races.

''We're certainly concerned," Resnick said. ''But these are known quantities. These are the men and women who have always lived in tough districts."

Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said many of the incumbents being targeted have been on the Democrats' wish list for years. Democrats won't be able to make this year's congressional races revolve solely around national issues, he said.

''House races are about pocketbook issues and local issues," Forti said. ''They're not about national issues."

Aside from the Boehlert seat, Democrats have not benefited from a rash of GOP retirements in the districts that offer them the biggest possibilities.

That was a major factor in the shake-up of 1994; that year, 16 Democrats who represented Republican-leaning districts did not seek reelection, and Republicans won all 16 on their way to a 52-seat pickup.

''What you had in 1994 was a lot of Southern Democrats who had been on borrowed time for about 20 years," Klinkner said. ''But Republicans were able to nationalize the election, and say 'a Democrat is a Democrat is a Democrat.' That's what the Democrats need to do this year to Republicans."

Democrats who are running in the Northeast this year say that even loyal Republican voters are growing tired of the party's direction in Washington.

They cite the Iraq war, the complex and expensive new Medicare prescription drug benefit, and issues like gay rights and abortion as areas where the national GOP has strayed from Northeastern values.

''The types of Republicans we have here don't agree with the direction the president is taking the country," said Kirsten Gillinbrand, who is seeking to oust Representative John Sweeney of New York in a district that includes the historically Republican Hudson Valley. ''They don't agree with [Bush's] ultraconservative, right-leaning agenda."

Joe Courtney, who ran against Representative Rob Simmons of Connecticut in 2002 and is mounting another campaign this year, said voters are much more receptive to his message of change than they were four years ago.

''Clearly there's a disconnect between what's going on in Washington and what the obvious, expressed wish of the voters is," Courtney said.

Democrats could be on the verge of solidifying their dominance in the Northeast, just as Republicans have taken firm control of the South, said Michael Franc, vice president of government relations at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

Strong Democratic candidates for governor and senator in New York and Pennsylvania could help all Democrats in those states, particularly given the Republican Party's poor polling numbers, he said.

Said Franc, ''We may wind up with the Northeast just as Democratic as the South is Republican right now."