Bush's ratings worry GOP incumbents
VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. -- When some of the country's top political handicappers drew up their charts of vulnerable House incumbents at the beginning of this year, Representative Thelma D. Drake, Republican of Virginia, was not among them. Now she is.
President Bush carried her district with 58 percent of the vote in 2004, but strategists say his travails are part of the reason why the freshman lawmaker now has a fight on her hands. He swooped into town briefly Friday for a closed-door fund-raiser for Drake, but made no public appearances.
Drake, who won with ease two years ago, is not alone. With approval ratings for Bush and congressional Republicans at a low, GOP strategists see signs of weakness where they least expected it -- including a conservative, military-dominated suburb such as Virginia Beach -- and fear that their problems could grow worse unless the national mood brightens.
Some Republican veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents' poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of 5 percentage points or more in many districts.
The changes don't guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has remained relatively constant, while the number of potentially competitive Republican districts continues to climb.
Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including Drake's, on his list of competitive races. In September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. ''That's a pretty significant increase," he said. ''The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."
Republicans said these trends in recent polling data are an early warning, not a cause for panic. Their strategists argue that their incumbents will not be caught by surprise, as many Democrats were in 1994, when they were swept from power in the House after 40 years.
House Republican campaign officials are taking steps to protect their vulnerable candidates with money, opposition research, negative television ads, and campaign messages designed to fly below the worst of the national turbulence. But they know there is only so much they can do if Bush's approval rating stays below 40 percent and voters continue to say they want a change in direction.
Drake, a first-term representative, isn't among the most endangered GOP incumbents, but she is one of many -- and not just inexperienced lawmakers -- who could be at risk if there is an anti-Republican wave in the fall.
Among House incumbents added to some GOP watch lists in recent months are veteran Representatives Nancy L. Johnson of Connecticut, Deborah D. Pryce of Ohio, Charles F. Bass of New Hampshire, J. D. Hayworth of Arizona, and Richard W. Pombo of California.
The chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Thomas Reynolds of New York, acknowledged last week that the national mood has accelerated campaign planning by many incumbents. While vowing that Republicans will maintain their House majority in the fall, regardless of the national climate, Reynolds said, ''Members [are] paying much more attention and putting together campaigns earlier."
Virginia's Second Congressional District, home to the Navy's Atlantic Fleet, generally is solid Republican territory. Bush won the district with 58 percent of the vote in 2004, and Drake was elected with 55 percent. But Governor Timothy Kaine, a Democrat, won the district in November, and the fact that Drake, 56, a former real estate agent and state legislator, is in her first term adds to the list of GOP worries about her race.
Around Virginia Beach, Republicans believe the race is Drake's to lose but say she nonetheless faces a long six months. ''I think Thelma is going to have to campaign hard, and she will," said state delegate Leo Wardrup, who helped recruit Drake for Congress.
Her opponent, Democrat Phil Kellam, Virginia Beach commissioner of revenue, believes the most effective line of attack is to paint Drake as a loyal vote for the president at a time when Bush's popularity has declined even in the red states he carried in 2004. ''She is grafted to this president," Kellam said.
