9/11 anniversary events boost White House

WASHINGTON -- Public confidence in President Bush's leadership appears to be rising since last week's campaign-style blitz touting his record in fighting terrorism, generating optimism among Republican lawmakers and operatives that they will be able to avoid losing control of Congress in the fall.

The president utilized a high-profile series of trips to important sites related to the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, along with a nationally televised Oval Office address, to emphasize that Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism and that the United States has been free of terrorist attacks for five years due to the extraordinary vigilance of his administration.

The concerted effort, which also included new plans for bringing terrorists to trial and conducting surveillance to disrupt terrorist plots, appears to have had an effect on his approval ratings. A series of recent polls shows Bush's approval inching back into the low 40s -- a level at which many pollsters say he won't be a significant drag on candidates in House and Senate races. And more voters are citing terrorism as a top concern, allowing Republicans to highlight an area that has long been a strong suit for their party.

The uptick in the president's poll numbers has contributed to a cautious confidence among Republican strategists about the party's ability to hold on to the House and Senate in November. They view such an outcome as crucial to maintaining Bush's antiterrorism initiatives, economic priorities such as making the president's tax cuts permanent, and approval of the president's conservative judicial nominees.

While recognizing that they face a hostile electoral climate, some Republicans are celebrating the reemergence of issues that helped Bush win a second term two years ago -- as well as the resurgence of the man who remains their greatest source of fund-raising and visibility.

``It's great to see the president doing what he does best," said Representative Deborah Pryce of Ohio, the chairwoman of the House Republican Caucus. ``The momentum is going in the right direction. People are learning that there's a distinct difference, that there is a choice between the parties. People need to understand what the risk is of a change here."

Widespread concern over the war in Iraq continues to harm Republicans' prospects, and some of the same polls that showed an uptick for Bush also showed voters favoring a Democratic-controlled Congress by substantial margins. In addition, Republicans' plans to emphasize their unity on security issues in the final weeks of the congressional session were sidetracked last week by the rebellion by GOP senators on rights for suspected terrorists.

But recent movement in polls suggests that the president continues to enjoy a bully pulpit from which he can influence the nation's mood and perceptions, despite setbacks that have harmed his popularity and credibility. Republicans say they are comforted by the fact that the forces set into motion in recent months can still be shaped by the president and congressional leaders.

``There's a malleability to the numbers," said Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman , who said he expects to lose seats but retain the majority in the House and Senate. ``It's never going to be an easy year. It's the sixth year of the president's term, the public is in a sour mood, we're in the middle of a tough war. Is it less challenging than it was two weeks ago? I think it's a little less."

The president's job-approval rating was at 42 percent in two polls released last week, from ABC and NBC/Wall Street Journal. Bush hasn't reached that level consistently in six months.

In addition, the ABC poll last week found voters trusting Republicans over Democrats to handle terrorism by a 48-to-41 ratio, reversing a 7-point advantage Democrats held a month earlier. Fifty percent of respondents in that poll said they favored the Democratic House candidate in their district, while 42 percent went with the Republican. That gap was 13 points last month and 16 points in January.

Democrats need to pick up six seats in the Senate and 15 in the House to take control of Congress. Most analysts say they stand a better chance of reaching their magic number in the larger and more volatile House, though the Senate remains a possibility as well.

Democratic Party leaders say they always expected to see the president's poll numbers climb slightly around the anniversary of 9/11, given the warm memories so many Americans have of Bush's leadership after the attacks.

But with violence continuing in Iraq and no signs of US troops coming home soon, voters won't be convinced to vote for Republicans based on national security issues this year, said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

``Frankly, it did work in 2002, and it worked in 2004, but it's not going to work this year," Schumer said, explaining that Democrats won't let Republicans conflate the war on terrorism with the Iraq War. ``We're not going to let them switch the focus. We've learned our lessons. Every time they go after us, we stand up and fight back."

Democrats were more disciplined last week than in the past, appearing on television and radio programs with a consistent message that the war in Iraq has been a setback for the war on terror. And many party leaders said they welcomed the focus on national and international issues, since Democrats want voters to make their decisions based on Bush's performance rather than local Republicans, who remain more popular.

A key component of Democrats' strategy is to emphasize the need for a check on Bush's powers. If Democrats controlled either house of Congress, they could use subpoena power to force the administration to answer uncomfortable questions about Iraq and other contentious subjects. And many Democratic candidates have vowed to try to force Bush to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq.

Andrew Kohut , president of Pew Research Center, said Bush's 9/11 anniversary bounce wasn't as large as it might have been, suggesting that real-world events are more important than speeches or reminiscences. His latest poll, released last week, had more people citing Iraq as the nation's biggest problem (26 percent) than cited terrorism (15 percent).

``There has not been enough to significantly change political directions," Kohut said. ``Republicans have a lot more steps to take."

But Mehlman noted that going into the 2004 election, a majority of the country disapproved of Bush's leadership and thought the country was on the wrong track. The president won a second term anyway through a campaign that made the Democratic candidate, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, the major issue, a strategy Republicans are repeating this year by drawing distinctions on security issues, Mehlman said.

``That election ultimately turned into a `choice election' between Bush and Kerry, not just a referendum on the president," he said. ``If Democratic leaders were in charge and had their way, America would have a much weaker effort in the war on terror."

In addition to the president's efforts, Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have been dispatched as part of an aggressive White House-run campaign to portray Democrats as incapable of defending the nation.

``The Democrats had a summer of fun, but people are starting to listen again," said Scott Migli , executive director of the Republican Party in Pennsylvania.