Report sees war fueling jihadists
Says their success in Iraq could spur more terrorists
WASHINGTON -- Portions of a secret US intelligence report the White House made public yesterday asserted that the Iraq war has become the ``cause celebre" among Islamic terrorists and is molding the next generation of jihadist leaders, but that allowing them to prevail in Iraq could inspire even more terrorists worldwide.
In a surprise move meant to rebut his critics, President Bush ordered the release of four pages of the classified report, called a National Intelligence Estimate, which summarize its key judgments. Those declassified selections conclude, in part, that the Iraq war is one of several ``underlying factors" fueling terrorist activities -- including longstanding anger at corrupt governments, fear of Western domination, and the slow pace of economic and political reforms.
At a news conference yesterday with President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, Bush declared that this fuller airing of the report -- compiled over two years by the nation's 16 spy agencies -- would help convince the public that the United States has made significant inroads against terrorists, and that success in Iraq is critical to eliminating the worldwide threat of terrorism.
``I'm not surprised the enemy is exploiting the situation in Iraq and using it as a propaganda tool to try to recruit more people to their murderous ways," Bush said, after announcing his decision to allow the director of national intelligence, John Negroponte , to decide which portions of the assessment could be made public.
Sections of the report that were previously leaked emphasized that the Iraq war has radicalized a new generation of anti-American Muslim extremists around the world. White House critics used that conclusion to attack Bush and his handling of the Iraq war, just weeks before congressional elections. The release ordered yesterday by Bush aimed to rebut what the administration considers a one-sided portrait of the report's conclusions.
Bush dismissed the contention that the war has increased the risk of anti-American terrorist attacks.
``To suggest that if we weren't in Iraq we would see a rosier scenario with fewer extremists joining the radical movement requires us to ignore 20 years of experience," Bush said. Turning to Karzai, he continued: ``We weren't in Iraq when we got attacked on September the 11th. We weren't in Iraq, and thousands of fighters were trained in terror camps inside your country.
``We weren't in Iraq when they first attacked the World Trade Center in 1993. We weren't in Iraq when they bombed the Cole. We weren't in Iraq when they blew up our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania."
The pages, drawn from the 30-page intelligence summary, repeated a conclusion many specialists have already reached. Although the US-led antiterrorism campaign has seriously disrupted terrorist networks, the report states, ``Al Qaeda, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells [are] spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts."
The release of portions of the report was reminiscent to some critics of the White House decision two years ago to declassify a 2002 report estimating Iraq's suspected arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. That report was made public after US troops swept through Iraq but couldn't find such an arsenal. The report in part indicated that many intelligence agencies were convinced the weapons were there. It was later revealed, however, that other portions of the 2002 summary raised serious doubts about the extent of the Iraqi weapons capability.
At a briefing yesterday afternoon, a senior administration official told reporters that the portions of the report that were released amounted to ``95 percent" of all the key judgments, described as the main conclusions.
Frances Townsend , assistant to the president for homeland security and counterterrorism, said there were ``two or three paragraphs that have been redacted in the interest of national security."
Still, yesterday's decision to release only a small part of the document drew a new round of criticism even before the government posted the four pages on the Internet. Critics immediately demanded that the White House release the entire report.
``The American people deserve the full story, not those parts of it that the Bush administration selects," Senator Edward M. Kennedy , a Massachusetts Democrat, said in a statement.
The four-pages shed some light on how the US intelligence community viewed, early on, the impact of the Iraq war on the wider war against jihadist extremists.
The pages stress that the war is among four underlying factors fueling the spread of terrorism around the world, including lingering grievances against corrupt governments, fear of Western cultural and political domination, the slow pace of economic, social, and political reforms, and pervasive anti-American sentiment among Muslims.
The report suggested that if the United States prevails in Iraq, it would be a significant setback for Islamic terrorists.
The growth of democratic institutions in the country is the key, according to the report.
``If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives," according to the report.
In a late afternoon conference call with reporters, Townsend said those conclusions underscore ``the importance of winning in Iraq." The declassified pages also outlined some important ``vulnerabilities" within the jihadist movement. Their radical ideology has limited appeal, the number of influential Muslim moderates is growing, and the terrorists' violent tactics -- including Muslim-on-Muslim violence -- horrifies much of the larger Islamic community.
Nevertheless, coming about a month before congressional elections, the release of the findings only served to harden political positions on the left and right.
Republicans, including Representative John Boehner of Ohio, the House majority leader, declared the report is evidence that ``counterterrorism efforts have not only severely damaged Al Qaeda and disrupted its terrorist operations, but that US success in Iraq is the key to ensuring that this terrorist threat does not grow."
But Senator Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said it's clear that the Iraq war ``has inflamed Islamic extremism and hatred toward the United States. It has given the terrorists a centralized place to attack and kill Americans, and it has created a training ground for the next generation of terrorists."
Parts of the report seem to reflect the general consensus among intelligence specialists that US efforts have fallen far short of what it will take to defeat Islamic extremism.
If this trend continues, the report states, ``threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide."
Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com. 