'08 presidential race shakes up parties' traditions
WASHINGTON -- Democrats usually begin presidential campaign seasons fretting about the candidates who are running and dreaming of those who aren't. (For decades, it was either Ted Kennedy or Mario Cuomo.)
Not this year. The Democratic pack has opened to huge crowds and intense national interest. It doesn't mean the Democrats are headed to victory, but it means that while they may have problems -- no consensus position on the Iraq war, the possibility of overreaching by their congressional majorities -- a lack of intriguing choices for the nomination isn't one of them.
This year, surprisingly, it's the Republicans' problem. The last time a presidential race was this open, in 1988, the Democrats fielded candidates who at the time were so obscure that, except for the Rev. Jesse Jackson, they would have trouble getting recognized in the Capitol men's room. The Republicans, meanwhile, had the sitting vice president (George H.W. Bush), the majority leader of the Senate (Bob Dole), a key architect of Ronald Reagan's economic program (Jack Kemp), and many others.
While individual members of the 1988 field may have been unsatisfactory to various GOP factions, the field itself perfectly embodied the mix of social conservatism, tax cut economics, and Wall Street pragmatism that defined the party at that time. Thus, the nominating process served the useful function of airing the party's concerns and developing a platform that could win that November.
This year's field, led by Arizona Senator John McCain; Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; and Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, doesn't fit very well with either the party's social-conservative wing or its economic wing. That's why dissatisfaction with the presidential candidates is a frequent undercurrent of discussions among Washington Republicans.
McCain, who has never hid his distrust of certain religious-right leaders, is not liked by many social conservatives. Romney, who has wooed social conservatives like a suitor carrying a heart-shaped candy box, is under suspicion for having changed his positions. And Giuliani has made no attempt to mitigate his social liberalism; he simply hopes to appeal to Republicans on other grounds.
That could leave social conservatives grasping at the same types of long shots that usually entrance -- and disappoint -- Democrats. Little-known Kansas Senator Sam Brownback entered the race to fill this void, but so far hasn't kindled any enthusiasm.
The national economic debate has shifted from areas of Republican strength, such as tax cuts, to areas of Democratic strength, such as health care. None of the Republican field is strongly associated with tax cutting, or seems willing to push the issue with enough force to change the national agenda. Again, Romney is knocking on the door, hoping to win over economic conservatives as well, but it isn't a perfect fit.
The reason for the GOP woes is the implosion of the Bush administration, which has left a whole team of GOP heavyweights sitting on the bench. George Allen, the former Virginia senator whose politics and persona closely resemble Bush, was defeated for re election. Vice President Dick Cheney always said he wouldn't run, but that didn't stop Washington insiders from speculating that he would; no one is seriously thinking about Cheney now.
The record of Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, should have made him a formidable candidate, but not while carrying his brother's name. And remember all that speculation about Condi vs. Hillary? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has way too much Iraq baggage to run for president.
The Democratic heavyweights are mostly in, with only former Vice President Al Gore still on the sidelines. Hillary Clinton is certain to launch a billion conversations, not all of them like the serious discussion of the future that she sought in the video announcing her campaign. But she also brings the ultimate campaign heavyweight, former president Bill Clinton, back into the ring.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama is the kind of fresh face Democrats crave, sometimes to their detriment. John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, has sought to drive the party's economic message. And there are both seasoned figures (Delaware Senator Joe Biden) and intriguing first-time candidates ( Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico) in the mix as well.
The fact that this field embodies the Democrats' core constituencies -- minority groups, professional women, labor unions, social liberals -- will have the paradoxical effect of downplaying the role of these special interests: The candidates will be free to test their messages without having to pander to one group after another.
They'll still need a position on Iraq , but at least they'll have the space to make up their minds.
Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond. 
