Conservative activists fear war dwarfing social agenda
WASHINGTON -- Social conservatives seeking to ban abortion and same-sex marriage are worried that their agenda is increasingly being overshadowed by the war in Iraq, making it more difficult for their voices to be heard in Congress and the presidential campaign than at any time in more than a decade.
While conservative social issues were widely considered pivotal in President Bush's victory in 2004, social conservatives say they fear the 2008 elections will be decided by an event out of their control -- the war -- and dominated by Republican presidential candidates who are faithful to the party line on Iraq but less supportive on gay rights, abortion, and end-of-life issues.
Ken Blackwell , a Republican who ran unsuccessfully for governor of Ohio last year, said conservatives will have a hard time pushing their agenda to the forefront of the presidential campaign until the war retreats as an issue.
"I don't think we have to win the war by the next election. But I think we have to make more Americans believe the war is being prosecuted competently, and for a reason," said Blackwell, who recently joined the Family Research Council as senior fellow for family empowerment.
"If the public attention is that the war is being prosecuted in an incompetent, clumsy, or incoherent fashion, it becomes a greater challenge to focus attention" on matters such as abortion, stem cell research, and gay rights, he said.
Tony Perkins , president of the Family Research Council, was even more gloomy in his prognosis, saying Republicans appear to have strayed from the conservative social agenda.
"The way the presidential campaign is shaping up, it looks like a continuation of November's elections," when Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress, Perkins said. "It was a disaster for Republicans because they had lost their way on [conservative social] issues."
So far, Iraq has dominated the presidential campaign in both parties. A poll released Thursday by Diageo/ The Hotline indicated that Iraq was by far the single most important issues to voters, with 30 percent of all respondents -- 21 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of Democrats, and 32 percent of independents -- naming their opposition to the war as the most critical issue facing the United States today. The issue was far ahead of healthcare, the economy, immigration, terrorism, and the environment, all of which scored in the low single digits on the importance scale.
Another 4 percent of all voters (including 6 percent of Republicans, 2 percent of Democrats, and 4 percent of independents) call their support of the war the most important issue.
Social issues ranked lowest. Religious and family issues were the most important for only 2 percent. Opposition to abortion rights was first for less than 1 percent. And same-sex marriage -- pro or con -- was first for less than 1 percent.
Meanwhile, conservative priorities such as abortion restrictions and constitutional amendments banning flag burning and same-sex marriage are not on the radar screen of Congress, where even leading GOP lawmakers have been distracted by war issues.
"Iraq is the elephant in the room, and until that gets resolved one way or the other, it will continue to dominate the dialogue," said Whit Ayres, a GOP consultant.
Nonetheless, social issues have always served as a rallying point for core Republican voters, driving up turnout and, in some cases, providing the margin in closely contested states. But this year, activists say, they are discouraged.
In Ohio -- where activists in 2004 made same-sex marriage a central issue, helping President Bush wrest the critical state from Democratic nominee John F. Kerry -- social conservatives "feel as though their issues are constantly being pushed to the back burner," said Mark Weaver , a Columbus-based GOP consultant. "There's a frustration there. But they don't see a candidate they can coalesce around" who will bring those issues to the forefront of the national political debate, Weaver said.
The current leaders for the presidential nomination aren't emphasizing social issues. Former mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York -- who supports the Iraq war and the "surge" of additional troops to Baghdad -- was asked frequently about the war during a recent trip to New Hampshire. He never mentioned social issues, nor was he asked about them.
Senator John McCain of Arizona is to officially launch his campaign with a speech next week on Iraq. Meanwhile, the one Republican emphasizing social issues, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, is near the bottom in polls.
"War and peace drive everything else into the background," said Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention's ethics and religious liberty commission.
Aggravating the conservatives' frustration is the lack of a strong presidential candidate to rally behind. Many conservatives are skeptical of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney because of his past comments appearing to support abortion and gay rights. Giuliani, married three times and a supporter of abortion rights, is making inroads among mainstream Republicans -- but is still seen as too liberal for many socially conservative voters.
"There's not a lot of difference between Rudy and Hillary and Obama and Edwards when it comes to social policy," Land said, referring to the leading Democratic candidates, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, and former senator John Edwards of North Carolina. "If the Republicans nominate a Rudy Giuliani, you will see a decline in voting among social conservatives." 