Blair parting robs president of an ally

WASHINGTON -- After a decade of being America's best friend abroad, spanning terms of two markedly different US presidents, Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain announced yesterday that he will resign next month, further isolating President Bush at a critical moment in his efforts to turn the tide in the Iraq war.

"I'll miss Tony Blair," Bush said at the Pentagon after meeting with US commanders for an update on the war. "I have found him to be a man who's kept his word, which sometimes is rare in the political circles I run in."

Early on as prime minister, Blair defined his place in the world with a clear decision: to align himself with the Americans. That partly explains, analysts said, how he made an easy transition from President Clinton to Clinton's near-opposite, Bush.

It also explains why some in Britain jeered him as Bush's "poodle" for supporting the administration's Iraq strategy as well as following the US lead last summer in not calling for a cease-fire in the war between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

With Blair gone, some analysts believe Bush will lose an important friend in his battle with Congress over funding for the troops in Iraq and whether to set a deadline for their departure.

"Bush will be lonelier and lonelier," said Graham Allison , director of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs , contending that the president also is sure to see more defections within his administration as his second term gets closer to its end.

Added Mara Rudman, former deputy national security adviser under Clinton, "If you're George Bush right now, you need every friend, and it's one less."

Without directly mentioning his support for the Iraq war, Blair said yesterday that a leader must sometimes ignore conventional wisdom and do "what you genuinely believe to be right."

After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States, he said he had no doubt about supporting America to the fullest extent . "I decided we should stand shoulder to shoulder with our oldest ally. I did so out of belief," he said.

Nine days after the attacks , he toured the World Trade Center site and then traveled to Washington to listen to Bush speak before a joint session of Congress. He was the only foreign leader present.

In Iraq, British troops have long been in charge of the area around Basra, in the south. The British government plans to reduce the number of troops in Iraq from 7,000 to about 5,000 , but it also is sending more troops to Afghanistan .

Several analysts and US politicians said yesterday that Blair's legacy will improve with time, with less attention given to his support for the US war in Iraq and more to his accomplishments at home and around the world.

"History will be kinder to him than those who write for the moment," said Senator John F. Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat. "Blair transformed the Labor Party, transformed Great Britain, led it at a time of great change, and pushed major initiatives in health care, education, and leadership in Africa, especially with AIDS."

But for now, the war in Iraq, and the perception that Blair fell in line to American orders, soured his last three years in office. Exactly a year ago, the Economist magazine's cover showed pictures of a grimacing Blair and a downcast Bush under the headlines "Axis of the feeble" and "The closing of the Bush-Blair era."

In recent weeks, Blair's approval ratings at home had dropped to 28 percent.

In America, he remained popular. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released last week during the visit of Queen Elizabeth II, 7 in 10 Americans surveyed had a favorable view of Blair. (It was still lower than the queen's favorable ratings of 80 percent .)

Americans admired Blair, according to analysts, for his gifted oratory, deft turns of phrases, and the promise of a new direction in global politics -- called the "Third Way."

Like another skilled orator of his generation, Clinton, Blair reveled in the public debate of policy. Bush, too, appreciated him for it.

"During their press conferences, you often saw Bush look over to Tony to give an intelligent and articulate response," said Reginald Dale, a British senior fellow in the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Bush and Blair became united on how to respond to the threat of terrorism around the world.

During a recent trip to Washington, "Blair's presence brought Bush to a new level of clarity in the way he explained the terrorist threat and the threat of radical Islam as a whole," Dale said. "There was clearly a strong bond between Bush and Blair.

It came from the fact that they both sincerely believe there is a major threat to Western civilization brewing in the Middle East, and not everybody in Europe is able to see it."

Blair, in his announcement yesterday in his home district of Sedgefield, in northeastern England, talked about his concerns that the threat is as strong as ever and that the American-led effort in Iraq must succeed.

"I think we must see it through," he said. "They, the terrorists, who threaten us here and 'round the world, will never give up if we give up. It is a test of will and of belief. And we can't fail it."

At the Pentagon, Bush drew upon a similar theme when asked about his relationship with Blair's likely successor, Gordon Brown, Britain's chancellor of the Exchequer.

Bush said he found Brown to be "an open and engaging person . . . a good thinker," and then added: "I believe he understands the consequences of failure. The interesting thing about the Iraq debate, by the way, is I don't hear a lot of discussions about what happens if we fail. . . . There needs to be a serious discussion about what happens if we create a vacuum into which radical movements flow."

Kerry, who knows Brown well, called him "very thoughtful, very clear, and he will be very tough about things that need to happen. He will be a welcome voice that could transform the debate" on Iraq.

The senator also said Bush must listen to the changing national debate on Iraq, including a blunt warning given to him by 11 moderate Republicans earlier this week that a prolonged war risked the future of the Republican Party.

"The president's time in Iraq is running out," Kerry said. "We need to salvage the interests of the supporters of the legitimate government of Iraq."

Stephen Walt , Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard, said Blair's departure creates "a bit of an opportunity for a fresh start. It's not that the relationship is in bad shape, but Blair at this point was carrying an awful lot of baggage."

John Donnelly can be reached at donnelly@globe.com