Bush acting to build a legacy beyond war

WASHINGTON -- For those watching President Bush defend the "surge" in Iraq with the metronome-like repetition with which he defended his earlier war policies, it's easy to believe nothing's changed in the White House: The most steadfast (to his admirers) and stubborn (to his detractors) of recent presidents is plowing forward in his own inimitable way.

But the war may have blinded people to the reality that almost everything else on Bush's agenda has changed, either in policy or emphasis. The president, looking to expand his legacy beyond Iraq, is moving in new directions on many global issues.

Last week alone saw once-unthinkable high-level negotiations with Iran; the imposition of sanctions against the Sudanese government to combat genocide in Darfur; a doubling of the president's budget for fighting AIDS in Africa; and a speech affirming the need for international action on global warming.

There are reasons to doubt Bush's commitment to some of these initiatives, all of which were timed to this week's Group of Eight meetings among the leaders of the world's largest economic powers.

The negotiations with Iran, conducted by each country's ambassador to Iraq, were confined to security issues in Iraq, not the ultimate Western goal of eliminating Iran's nuclear program. And the global-warming proposal, which seeks to establish targets to reduce the carbon emissions of the world's leading polluter nations, won't take effect until Bush is a month away from leaving office.

There are fewer doubts about Bush's other initiatives: He has long drawn attention to the killings in Darfur, and has made a substantial commitment to fighting global AIDS. For those reasons, it might be hard for people to see what's new in his latest moves.

But there are compelling reasons to believe that all of last week's actions were major steps for Bush. There's substantial evidence that the administration is now more interested in negotiating with Iran than in threatening military action. As the administration was preparing for last week's talks, it quietly disbanded a task force that many diplomats believed was plotting "regime change" in Iran and Syria.

For its part, the global-warming proposal may well have been intended to ward off international condemnation and calls for tougher action. But in the past, Bush has often brushed aside international opinion. If he's taking account of it now, it's a big change.

And the fact of Bush's prior interest in Darfur and AIDS shouldn't blind people to the extent of his latest commitments to fighting war and disease in Africa: Many human-rights advocates may be reluctant to admit it, but Bush has done far more than European powers, whose history of meddling in Africa gives them greater responsibility for problems there. And Bush's proposed $30 billion budget over five years to fight AIDS is, by past standards, a breathtaking amount.

Of all the proposals, the global-warming initiative may be both the least likely to bear fruit (because it bypasses an existing international framework) and the most likely to influence the future of American policy.

In recent years, even as scientific evidence mounted, many conservatives have insisted that the whole notion of greenhouse gases contributing to climate change was false. It was "the greatest hoax ever perpetuated on the American people," according to Sen ator James Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma.

To be sure, many conservatives did not dismiss global warming. But until Bush endorsed the scientific reality of climate change, the issue seemed destined to fall into a he-said, she-said framework, with no political consensus to match the scientific consensus. Now, the focus will be on what to do about global warming, rather than whether to do something about it.

In 6 1/2 years in office, Bush has shown himself to be less concerned with public opinion than any other recent president. Unlike other chief executives, who have sought to woo moderates , he's long counted on the loyalty of like-minded conservatives. But as his recent actions indicate, he's not too concerned about winning over conservatives, either.

With his approval percentages in the 30s and likely to stay there because of Iraq, Bush has little to gain from rallying his base. And he's highly unlikely to win over his liberal critics.

His best chance for vindication is from posterity, a prospect he often mentions. He seems to have based his recent actions on just such an appeal to history.

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his analysis of events in the capital and beyond.