South Carolina tips first domino on primaries

WASHINGTON -- New Hampshire and Iowa officials faced new pressure yesterday to bring forward their presidential selection contests even earlier -- perhaps before the winter holidays -- after South Carolina Republicans announced they will move their primary to Jan. 19.

The decision -- which South Carolina GOP chairman Katon Dawson said was in response to the Florida Legislature's vote to move that state's primary to Jan. 29 -- accelerates a trend that threatens to have more than half of the parties' convention delegates chosen by Feb. 5.

The South Carolina move prompted speculation that New Hampshire may shift its primary forward to a date between Jan. 9 and 12, with the Iowa party caucuses now likely to be held in the first days of January, or even in mid-December.

"We are here to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our friends in New Hampshire to reaffirm the important role that both of our states play in presidential politics," Dawson said at a news conference in Concord, N.H., with New Hampshire Secretary of State William M. Gardner.

Gardner said he has not decided when to schedule the Granite State's primary, which by state law must be the first in the nation and must take place seven days ahead of the next primary. Prior to South Carolina's action, New Hampshire's contest had been tentatively scheduled for Jan. 22.

"The movement of South Carolina will certainly trigger our law," Gardner said.

He added that he will wait until later in the year to set a primary date to make sure other states do not also accelerate their primaries.

"I don't relish waiting until later in the year, but I have in the past when it's been absolutely necessary to protect tradition. And that's what's first and foremost," Gardner said.

Iowa, which holds a caucus currently scheduled for Jan. 14, requires eight days between its contest and the New Hampshire primary, meaning it will also be faced with moving its contest to an earlier date.

Iowa GOP spokeswoman Mary Tiffany said the Hawkeye State will not act to move its caucuses until New Hampshire sets its primary. "Right now, we're still first in the nation," Tiffany said of the state's caucuses.

Iowa might be forced to move its caucuses to as early as mid-December to stay ahead of New Hampshire and to avoid the weeks of Christmas and New Year's, said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.

"If Iowa moves [its caucuses] before Christmas, that will really diminish Iowa" as a player in the presidential primary season, Black said.

"Whoever wins there is going to get lost in Christmas and New Year's and football, and all this stuff that's important to a lot of Americans," he said.

More than 20 states have moved or are considering a move to the first Tuesday in February, putting heavy pressure on the 18 announced presidential candidates to raise money and travel across the country to woo voters from California to New Hampshire.

Both national parties have threatened to punish states that move up their primaries in defiance of party rules by reducing their numbers of delegates to the conventions. But state legislatures and parties -- eager to have candidates spend campaign cash in the states and address local concerns -- have been undeterred by the threat.

The attention that states like Florida and South Carolina could get from presidential candidates visiting early in the campaign is more valuable than having a full slate of delegates at the conventions, party spokesmen and political analysts said.

"We'd rather have some people in Florida be relevant in the Republican selection process than have a bunch of delegates go to see the balloons drop" at the party convention in Minneapolis next September, said Alberto Martinez, communications director for the majority Republicans in the Florida state House.

"We still think the biggest political prize is going to be in Florida," Martinez said, adding that he doubts that the parties will take away delegates. "We don't foresee them preventing delegates from having their say at the convention."

Susan Milligan can be reached at milligan@globe.com.