WASHINGTON - President Bush portrayed the bloody five-year war in Iraq last night as finally turning a corner, citing a dramatic reduction in attacks since he dispatched an additional 30,000 US troops last January and vowing to "sustain and build on the gains we made in 2007" during his last year in office.
"The American and Iraqi surges have achieved results few of us could have imagined just one year ago," Bush said in his final State of the Union address.
But several military specialists warned that many of the security improvements in Iraq have resulted from the work of a mix of local militias and armed citizens groups that are funded by the United States but beyond the control of the Iraqi government.
Unless these groups are quickly folded into the Iraqi security forces or are provided other gainful employment, there are few guarantees that they will not face off with each other when the American security commitment is reduced and spark another round of civil war, the specialists said.
"There is no jobs program to speak of," said Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "A top priority now is to institutionalize those 80,000 or so men into the Iraqi security forces or provide the prospects of a long-term livelihood."
The groups include more than 130 so-called Concerned Local Citizens' groups, or CLCs, many of which have been armed and funded by the United States and include former Sunni insurgents. An additional 10,000 of them, the White House says, have been folded into the Iraqi security forces.
US commanders maintain that these groups have been crucial allies in crippling the operations of Al Qaeda in Iraq, particularly in the western Anbar Province, and Bush said yesterday these private Iraqi citizens began moving against the insurgents after he announced the surge last year.
"The Iraqi people quickly realized that something dramatic had happened," Bush said in the speech. "Those who had worried that America was preparing to abandon them instead saw . . . our forces moving into neighborhoods, clearing out the terrorists, and staying behind to ensure the enemy did not return."
In a fact sheet put out ahead of the speech, the White House said these new armed groups will be assimilated into Iraqi society, including the Iraqi security forces.
"The government of Iraq is committed to one day assuming fiscal and overall responsibility for CLCs and has begun structuring vocational training programs for CLCs who want to rejoin the civilian work force," it said.
But some analysts, such as retired Army Colonel Douglas A. Macgregor, worry that it might be too late to control them. Writing in yesterday's edition of Defense News, Macgregor said "Iraq looks more 'stable' because American generals are using cash to temporarily manipulate local tribal interests."
"But when the Sunni Arab tribes coalesce to fight for control of Iraq, the façade of progress will collapse and the violence will be worse than before," he predicted.
Meanwhile, another major factor in the improving security situation was the decision by Moqtada al-Sadr, the leader of one of the largest Shi'ite militias, the Mahdi Army, to announce a cease-fire in August. US military officials in Baghdad say Sadr has helped US forces track down rogue groups.
"Security has improved because militias have taken over," said Paul Hughes, a retired Army colonel who is now with the US Institute for Peace in Washington.
He said he remains concerned about the long-term intentions of Sadr's militia. "They have been weeding out the weak soldiers and trying to improve their capabilities," Hughes said in an interview. "They have training camps set up. You don't do that with a militia unless you plan to use it."
Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com.
