The Bush legacy
From pre-9/11 to the economic meltdown, presidency leaves much for historians to debate
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The following story was reported and written by Peter S. Canellos, Susan Milligan, Scott Helman, and Sasha Issenberg of the Globe staff.
WASHINGTON - With two overseas wars and a potentially catastrophic economic downturn, George W. Bush is leaving office with some of the lowest public-approval ratings and worst assessments from historians and political scientists of any chief executive.
But academics, while echoing many of the criticisms, also note that Bush's presidency won't be an easy one for future historians to assess. While most unsuccessful presidencies, such as Jimmy Carter's and Herbert Hoover's, involved presidents who were considered captives of events, unable to muster effective responses, Bush's was one of bold strokes that, for better or worse, will be debated for a long time.
From his precipitous decision to invade Iraq to his order giving wide latitude to CIA interrogators of terrorism suspects to his demand for $700 billion to shore up financial institutions, Bush's presidency has been one of strong actions followed by equally strong - and in some cases even stronger - reactions.
And at times, Bush's combative personality - some would call him arrogant - helped spark the backlash.
"Bush was dealt a series of tough problems and responded far more aggressively than Hoover or Carter did," said Donald F. Kettl, a University of Pennsylvania historian. "The one big distinction between his presidency and theirs is the extra-strong self-confidence - some call it strategic vision - to respond aggressively to the problems he was dealt."
Kettl, like many historians, believes that Bush's policies may ultimately be viewed as misguided, or "out of synch" with the problems he faced, but Bush himself has professed confidence that his decisions will be viewed more favorably over time.
He can take some comfort in knowing that low popularity when leaving office hasn't always portended a poor historical reputation for presidents.
Harry Truman departed with very low ratings, but his performance has been viewed much more favorably by historians, largely because his vision in key areas such as containment of Communism was borne out over time. Lyndon Johnson also ended his presidency with highly unfavorable ratings and presiding over a deeply unpopular war. But the civil rights bills he pushed through Congress helped transform American society into one that, 40 years later, was ready for an African-American president.
Meanwhile, Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge were very popular in their times, only to have their legacies as purveyors of peace and prosperity dimin ished by the Great Depression.
Like Truman, Bush will be defined by actions that defied the usual ideological analysis.
A self-professed fan of small government, Bush nonetheless expanded Medicare and injected the federal government into education to a greater extent than his Democratic predecessors, amid a huge increase in federal spending and deficits. And while a skeptic of international cooperation in foreign policy, he expanded America's humanitarian role in the world, especially in Africa.
But his most significant, and most debatable, legacy will be in national security.
There, the man who once vowed to pull the United States back from the world chose to fight terrorism by taking on rogue states in the Middle East, a deeply controversial policy that is likely to remain so. And while some people view Bush as a strong leader, his national security efforts were coordinated by his powerful vice president, suggesting that Bush was disproportionately under the influence of Dick Cheney.
In some areas, Bush's reputation could also depend on his successor, Barack Obama. Poor oversight of financial institutions by Bush's administration may well tarnish his economic legacy, even if conservatives continue to celebrate his tax cuts.
But if Obama accelerates Bush's financial bailout efforts - as he has indicated he will - and the country emerges quickly from the economic downturn, it could somewhat mitigate the damage to Bush's reputation.
Likewise, if Obama builds on Bush's homeland security programs and there are no additional wide-scale terrorist attacks, Bush could be remembered the way he wants to be: As the president who protected America from attack.
But there are many other initiatives that were Bush's alone - moments when his presidential leadership came into the sharpest relief - and on which historians will long debate his legacy. Among them are:
Situation: Worried about uneven student performance in schools across the nation, Bush looked for a federal solution to weed out unqualified teachers, test student improvement, and identify schools that were doing a poor job.
Decision: Working with a surprise ally, Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Bush won approval of a sweeping No Child Left Behind law that led to unprecedented federal involvement in elementary and secondary education. The centerpiece was a national test of students' skills. Schools would be expected to improve student performance over the years, or face possible sanctions.
Alternative paths: Teachers' unions warned that the testing standards would lead many educators to "teach to the test." Liberals complained that there wasn't enough money to help low-performing districts. Conservatives preferred maintaining the system of local control.
Analysis: The law became deeply unpopular in education circles, and teachers claim it fails to take account of the difficulties in working with the most at-risk students. But Congress is expected to retain it but increase funding for poor districts and amend some of the testing provisions. Still, the act remains a "significant accomplishment," said Pietro Nivola, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution. "They got the federal government involved in establishing the ground rules of public education in a way that was unprecedented."
Situation: Religious conservatives had long objected to using embryonic stem cells for medical research, believing they were a form of life, while scientists insisted such research had the potential to cure deadly diseases.
Decision: Bush, a social conservative and born-again evangelical, decided to restrict federal support for stem cell research. In an executive order that the White House characterized as a compromise, he said he would allow federal financing for the research, but not if it would destroy any new human embryos: labs could work only on existing stem cell lines.
Alternative paths: Religious conservatives had lobbied for a complete ban on stem cell research. On the other side, many scientists declared that existing lines were insufficient, and that new ones must be allowed.
Analysis: "He was expressing a moral position that is somewhat unpopular," said Rebecca Susan Dresser, a Washington University law professor who serves on the President's Council on
Situation: In a shocking attack on American soil, terrorists hijacked planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center and portions of the Pentagon, killing thousands of Americans.
Decision: After rallying the nation with a series of speeches and visits to the attack sites, Bush determined that the Al Qaeda terrorist network, supported by the government of Afghanistan, was responsible for the attacks. The United States spent months training an alliance of Afghan rebels. Then, with the support of the US Army, the rebels overthrew the government.
Alternative path: Bush could have invaded more quickly, but chose to work with local rebels, which gave the war widespread legitimacy in the world. Having more American troops, however, might have increased the chances of capturing Bin Laden and Mullah Omar, who escaped.
Outcome: Bush's actions after 9/11 - including his spontaneous embrace of a rescue worker in New York - won widespread approval. The invasion of Afghanistan was an initial success, but members of the former Taliban-led government have since reconstituted themselves into a resurgent force, leading to claims that Bush won the war and lost the peace. And bin Laden and Mullah Omar remain free.
Situation: After the Afghan invasion, Bush saw the need for a broader policy to fight global terrorism.
Decision: In a memorable State of the Union address, Bush dedicated himself to fighting countries that he described as sponsors of terrorism: Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. He called them "the axis of evil," though he did not mean to suggest they were working together.
Alternative path: Other leaders, including his rival from the disputed 2000 election, Al Gore, argued that the top priority should be building an international coalition to seek out radical Islamists and other guerrilla groups. They also advised that Bush should be wary of taking unilateral actions.
Analysis: This was, in many ways, Bush's defining moment, and he believes that his decision to apply pressure on rogue nations is partly responsible for avoiding another wide-scale terrorist attack in America. But many others believe that he squandered an opportunity to bring the world together to fight terrorism. "The administration misidentified the problem," said Kettl, the University of Pennsylvania historian. "It responded to a problem that didn't involve states by focusing on states."
Situation: In 2002, Bush began to lay the groundwork for invading Iraq, convinced that Saddam Hussein was secretly stockpiling chemical or nuclear weapons to use against American targets. Though intelligence agencies believed Hussein had chemical weapons and nuclear ambitions, Bush presented those conclusions with greater certainty than many analysts felt was warranted.
Decision: Ignoring pleas to give United Nations weapons inspections more time to determine whether Hussein was harboring illegal weapons, Bush in March 2003 ordered American warplanes to begin bombing Baghdad. But the war, designed to "shock and awe" Hussein's regime into submission, soon became a protracted fight against a range of guerrilla armies, causing the death to date of more than 4,000 American troops.
Alternative path: Many Democrats argued at the time that Bush should hold off on the war, and allow the weapons inspectors to finish their job.
Analysis: Many people feel that Bush misled the country into the war by exaggerating intelligence conclusions and ignoring contrary information. Today, under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq has stabilized, in part because of a troop "surge" that Bush launched in 2007. But James A. Thurber, political scientist at American University, said that will not change the historical assessment of the war as harmful to America's strength and reputation. "We've used [up] the political capital of what the United States means to the world, which is freedom, democracy, and support for human rights, as a result of this war," he said.
Situation: Two days after defeating John Kerry by less than a 3 percent margin, Bush declared that he had received a mandate for major change.
Decision: Bush chose to push for the centerpiece of what he called an "ownership society": a pitch to reorganize Social Security around new personal-savings accounts funded out of payroll taxes. Half of all retirees depended on Social Security as their sole income, and many were worried about the risks of investing it themselves. But Bush believed his plan would give lower-income Americans a chance to reap the benefits of the growing stock market.
Alternative path: Democrats rallied around the existing system, which remained highly popular. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi called Bush's plan "a guaranteed gamble," adding that "the burst of the Internet bubble in 2000 wreaked havoc on private investments . . . Imagine if it had done the same to their Social Security."
Analysis: Democrats convinced voters that the plan would be too risky, and congressional Republicans did not even bring it to a vote. "There was an underestimation of the [negative] response" from both parties, said Pete Wehner, then a Bush domestic-policy aide. "The president knocked on the hinges of the door, but he didn't knock the door down. It's a pretty strong door."
Situation: In late August 2005, while Bush was in the midst of a month-long vacation, Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, breaking the levees protecting New Orleans and flooding the city's lower parishes and much of the lower Mississippi River region. Terrified residents clung to their rooftops, but more than 1,000 died.
Decision: Bush did a fly-over to survey the damage - but not until days after the disaster hit. And it took several more days for the president to go to New Orleans, angering local residents and members of Congress, who charged that the Bush administration's response was slow and inadequate.
Alternative path: Most people felt the federal government should have mobilized more quickly in advance of the storm, which had been predicted for days. They also felt Bush should have shown greater personal concern. The president's defenders blamed local officials for failing to coordinate with federal teams.
Analysis: John Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California, said Bush might be forgiven for not leaving his vacation, since it was unlikely that the levees would give way. But the administration's handling of the aftermath undermined the confidence of a wide swath of America, prompting even once-loyal congressional Republicans to hold hearings to criticize the administration. "Before [Katrina], there were people who didn't like Bush who thought the administration was competent," he said. Afterwards, they did not.
Situation: After nearly four years and the deaths of more than 3,000 American troops, Bush by the end of 2006 came to see that his strategy in Iraq was failing badly.
Decision: Despite the recommendations of some military commanders and the bipartisan Iraq Study Group to begin reducing the American troop presence, Bush chose to double down on his initial gamble to invade. The White House, under the guidance of a new defense secretary, Robert Gates, and a new commander in Iraq, David Petraeus, deployed roughly 30,000 additional troops.
Alternate path: Most Democrats, including Obama, and some Republicans opposed the surge, saying it would do little to further the political reconciliation that all parties said was necessary.
Analysis: Bush's legendary stubbornness paid dividends. The additional troops - along with greater cooperation from Sunni tribal leaders - quelled violence and brought greater stability to a country that was spinning out of control. Stephen Biddle, a defense policy specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that while Iraq is unlikely to become a "shining beacon of democracy," the surge prevented, for the present time, at least, a potentially explosive destabilization of the entire region. "Much of the president's policy for Iraq was a terrible mistake, but not all of it," Biddle said. "The surge, I think, was the right thing to do at the time, and at least has given us a decent chance of avoiding the worst case."
